Israeli thinktank explores possibe scenario for an attack on Iran

[CountDeMoney]

Does Obama's victory mean defeat for Netanyahu?
WashingtonPost.com
By Max Fisher and the Washington Post Foreign Staff

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made little secret of his preference for Mitt Romney in the U.S. presidential election, part of a very public push against President Obama that went back to an early 2011 "truth tour" in which the Israeli leader lectured his most important ally from the floor of the U.S. Congress. It was an odd and potentially risky bit of diplomacy from Netanyahu.

Now that Obama has won reelection, many in the U.S. and in Israel see bad news for Bibi. "This is probably not a very good morning for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu," his interior minister told a reporter today. It's difficult to imagine, though, that Obama would seek "payback" or "punishment" against his Israeli counterpart. The U.S.-Israel alliance has been so institutionalized (to borrow Steven Cook's word), the U.S. and Israel share so many mutual interests, and so much of the U.S.-Israeli relationship goes through Congress, that Obama doesn't really have many opportunities or incentives for payback.

But there is a more plausible way that Obama's victory could effect Netanyahu: by strengthening his opponents in domestic Israeli politics. The conservative leader's coalition is expected to retain power in an early 2013 election, prevailing over fractured political opposition. The big question is whether Israeli voters perceive Netanyahu as so badly mishandling the alliance with America, a crucial issue in Israel, that they push Netanyahu's coalition to the left, or out of leadership altogether. I asked some Israel-watchers about this, and they seem to think it's plausible but unlikely that Obama's victory will ultimately mean Netanyahu's defeat.

"Israelis believe it is their [prime minister]'s job to maintain good relations with the U.S. above almost anything else," The Atlantic's Jeffrey Goldberg told me when I noted that Israeli voters are not particularly enamored with Obama. Tamara Cofman Wittes, a former Obama administration official now at the Brookings Institution, asked whether voters would "punish Bibi in elex for his management of the relationship." Still, in order for Israeli voters to do so, they'd need to see "a unified and strong opposition party to exploit Netanyahu's maladroit handling of the American file," Goldberg said.

So far, though, there's not much of an opposition in place to champion any public backlash. Israeli columnist Larry Derfner sees this as the opportunity for one to coalesce. "The Israeli right is vulnerable as it hasn't been in 12 years," he wrote at Israeli news site 972, going through possible candidates and parties. But Derfner is in some ways rooting for his own team. Some analysts don't see, as Wittes put it, an Israeli opposition figure "who can play this card effectively against Bibi." In any case, "this [strategy] only works if Israelis see tangible consequences resulting from Bibi's behavior," writer Michael Koplow predicts. And Goldberg warned it could be politically "dangerous" for Israeli politicians to hit Netanyahu "too hard" on the issue.

As for whether or not the U.S. president could inch the politics away from Netanyahu if he wanted to, Koplow has written, "Obama does not have the popularity, credibility, or familiarity with Israeli voters" to guide their votes. Though this potential Israeli political skirmish centers on the relationship with America, it is still a fundamentally Israeli issue that will likely be determined by Israeli, not American, politicians and voters.

[Sheilbh]

Bibi's been rowing back for a few months.  But his congratulations today were very awkward, I think he knows he made a mistake in trying to play internal US politics against a President.  Also Ehud Barak seems to be pushing that he has a very good relationship with Obama (he apparently spent this morning e-mailing journalists photos and videos of him and Obama). 

I think the subtext of that is perhaps that the Bibi-Lieberman party alliance is dangerous, I'm a steady pair of hands.

There's also rumours that this could help push Olmert back into politics.

[Razgovory]

I'd love to see Bibi tossed out on his ass.  Guy has been a fucking tool.

[CountDeMoney]

I'd like to see the tanker from Chinese Farm back in the picture myself.  Barak is level-headed.

[Ed Anger]

Several news agencies are reporting that the British Ministry of Defense is considering deploying Eurofighter Typhoons to Al Dhafra airbase, in the United Arab Emirates, on a long term basis.

The British Newspaper The Independent ran an article quoting MOD sources as saying that the aircraft not only are to deploy to the region, but could be part funded by the UAE themselves.

The French Air Force already have a presence at the base and that presence is funded by the UAE and is also home to the 380th Air Expeditionary Wing of the U.S. Air Force with jets (including the stealthy F-22 Raptor) and Patriot missile batteries.

The Typhoons could be used to protect the Strait of Hormuz, should the Iranians decide to blockade the strategically important bottle neck for 40% of the worlds oil, should they come under attack.

However the official line from the Ministry of Defense in London came in the form of a press release which said: "The UK regularly deploys Typhoon to UAE as part of our routine exercise programme and to demonstrate our military commitment to UAE and the security of the wider region. We have a mutual interest with our GCC [Gulf] partners in ensuring peace and stability in the region, and exercises such as this allow us to practice working together."

The MoD added: "These deployments are not due to our concerns over Iran's nuclear programme. As we continue to make clear, the Government does not believe military action against Iran is the right course of action at this time, although no option is off the table."

Although its clear the decision hasn't been made, in public at least, it does look with the funding possibly sorted that this will come about.

It may just be a case of timing the announcement, as it happens British Prime Minsiter David Cameron is currently in Dubai trying to drum up trade for British defense contractors and Eurofighter; it could be announced whilst Cameron is in the area and be a bit of a deal sweetener for sales of Eurofighter jets to UAE.

Richard Clements for TheAviationist.com

[Ed Anger]

Fuckers fired on one of drones in the gulf.

[CountDeMoney]

There's gonna be a lot of that.

[Ed Anger]

There's gonna be a lot of that.

Time to erase one of their airbases.

[Razgovory]

I wonder why the military is making a big deal out the drone thing.  I mean, they are drones, they are suppose to be disposable.  Maybe we are about to do something.  That would be cool.

[Solmyr]

Laying the groundwork?

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/09/world/middleeast/pentagon-says-iran-fired-at-surveillance-drone-last-week.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

[CountDeMoney]

I wonder why the military is making a big deal out the drone thing.  I mean, they are drones, they are suppose to be disposable.  Maybe we are about to do something.  That would be cool.

Just putting it out there, not for public discourse, but public preparation.  America doesn't like to wake up in the morning and find out there's been an exchange of fire that just "came out of nowhere".

[Ed Anger]

One morning, I'd like to wake up to news of B-52 strikes on Iran.

[CountDeMoney]

Amen, brother.  JDAMS with "Remember '79" in chalk.

[Razgovory]

I wonder why the military is making a big deal out the drone thing.  I mean, they are drones, they are suppose to be disposable.  Maybe we are about to do something.  That would be cool.

Just putting it out there, not for public discourse, but public preparation.  America doesn't like to wake up in the morning and find out there's been an exchange of fire that just "came out of nowhere".

That's kinda what I've been expecting.  I imagine I'll just wake up one morning and find out there is now a bombing campaign in Iran.

[The Brain]

Sell Iran to EA.