Languish Presidential Election!

[derspiess]

That's actually pretty cool. Are there many attractive young women who attend these Republican events?

Seems to be the case in GOP strongholds like my area-- there are a lot of young attractive professional wimmenz that are active in the Cincy GOP.  Seems like it's more of a social function for them but I'm okay with it.

In other areas maybe not as much. 

[DGuller]

So Nate Silver is getting some shit for his seventy-something percent chance of Obama victory, and not just from the right.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/media/2012/10/nate-silver-romney-clearly-could-still-win-147618.html

Can't find the video link, but even Seedy's own Morning Joe had an anti-Nate rant.

Ignorance of statistics isn't solely the domain of the right.  I don't know if Nate Silver's model is severely flawed or not, but I know that the arguments cited in that article against it are severely flawed.  Probability and statistics are very, very hard to truly get, and this article shows it.

[CountDeMoney]

Ignorance of statistics isn't solely the domain of the right.  I don't know if Nate Silver's model is severely flawed or not, but I know that the arguments cited in that article against it are severely flawed.  Probability and statistics are very, very hard to truly get, and this article shows it.

What people keep missing when they bitch about Silver's "76.4 percent" is that the remaining "23.6 percent" is a really, really big fucking chunk of chance.

[derspiess]

What people keep missing when they bitch about Silver's "76.4 percent" is that the remaining "23.6 percent" is a really, really big fucking chunk of chance.

Not really.  It's less than 1 in 4. 

[PDH]

What people keep missing when they bitch about Silver's "76.4 percent" is that the remaining "23.6 percent" is a really, really big fucking chunk of chance.

Not really.  It's less than 1 in 4.

1 out of 4 comes up 9 times out of 10.

[CountDeMoney]

What people keep missing when they bitch about Silver's "76.4 percent" is that the remaining "23.6 percent" is a really, really big fucking chunk of chance.

Not really.  It's less than 1 in 4.

You are obviously more of a high risk gambler than I am, then.  How's that work out at the tables for you?

[derspiess]

What people keep missing when they bitch about Silver's "76.4 percent" is that the remaining "23.6 percent" is a really, really big fucking chunk of chance.

Not really.  It's less than 1 in 4.

You are obviously more of a high risk gambler than I am, then.  How's that work out at the tables for you?

I'm missing your point, but I only play Blackjack.

[CountDeMoney]

I'm missing your point, but I only play Blackjack.

My point is, 1 out of 4 is still very decent odds.

Hell, even rolling a 6 on a 1d6 can get you an EX on the 1-4 Attrition Table without a CAS modifier.

[Sheilbh]

I don't get the Silver hate. The Princeton model has Obama with an 80% chance. The RCP and HuffPost averages have Obama over 270. He's got a stronger lead in Ohio than Bush at this point in 2004 and Romney has never led the state. Romney's surge has stalled, at best. I think he's undone the damage of 47% and a great Dem convention, which is impressive. But, he needs another 1-2% to win.

Right now I think this feels like role reversal 2004.

[Valmy]

Right now I think this feels like role reversal 2004.

Yeah it totally does.  Incompetent incumbent going up against soulless challenger.

[derspiess]

I don't get the Silver hate. The Princeton model has Obama with an 80% chance. The RCP and HuffPost averages have Obama over 270. He's got a stronger lead in Ohio than Bush at this point in 2004 and Romney has never led the state.

The problem I have with anyone giving Obama greater than a 60% chance is that where he is ahead he's ahead by razor thin margins.  And one thing I can't work out in my head is why so many of the polls seem to assume that Obama will get turnout equal or greater to 2008 when his supporters clearly lack the same level of enthusiasm for him.

Anyway, my prediction from months ago stands:  Romney wins the popular vote but Obama wins electoral, with it all hinging on one state.

Romney's surge has stalled, at best. I think he's undone the damage of 47% and a great Dem convention, which is impressive. But, he needs another 1-2% to win.

I think he's ahead of where he was before the Dem convention/47%. 

Right now I think this feels like role reversal 2004.

Well hopefully there won't be as bad of an exit poll screw-up as there was then.

[Ed Anger]

Iowa warns international observers of arrest

I'm getting a international incident boner.

[derspiess]

Awesome.  If I were here next Tuesdays is be doing citizens arrests, Gomer-style.

[Ed Anger]

I'll form an ad hoc militia company and detain anybody with an accent.

[crazy canuck]

I'll form an ad hoc militia company and detain anybody with an accent.

Put yourself in handcuffs asap