The China Thread

[Sheilbh]

Seems a worrying sign that Taiwan's doing this - and it feels very Ukraine in the 2010s:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/08/03/taiwan-china-war-invasion-military-preparedness/

The Zero Day trailer (I swear I've seen a short version because I didn't watch 17 minutes - but can't find anything shorter) is also really interesting because it is a "little green men" style scenario.

[Jacob]

Seems a worrying sign that Taiwan's doing this - and it feels very Ukraine in the 2010s:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/08/03/taiwan-china-war-invasion-military-preparedness/

The Zero Day trailer (I swear I've seen a short version because I didn't watch 17 minutes - but can't find anything shorter) is also really interesting because it is a "little green men" style scenario.

I don't have a WaPo account, but it sounds like the preparedness training is not going so well at the moment?

[Josquius]

I'll have to remember to look out for that show.

Taiwan and Ukraine analogies always sit uneasy. As sure. Taiwan having a decent army and militia will really help. But being an island the key battles will be very different to those of Ukraine. A lot less the militia can do with them.

The main learning Taiwan (and China) should be getting from Ukraine is the importance of drones - in particular navyless ukraine defeating the Russian black sea fleet.
Naval drones don't get as much attention as the flying ones but the potential in Taiwan is huge

[Sheilbh]

I don't have a WaPo account, but it sounds like the preparedness training is not going so well at the moment?

Taiwan is readying citizens for a Chinese invasion. It's not going well.
The government extended mandatory military service and revamped reservist training in an effort to make Beijing think twice. But it's already falling short.
8 min

By Christian Shepherd and Vic Chiang
Updated August 3, 2024 at 8:30 a.m. EDT|Published August 3, 2024 at 5:00 a.m. EDT

TAIPEI, Taiwan — In the imagined blockade of "Zero Day," a Taiwanese television drama that will be released next year but is already causing a stir, the Chinese military has encircled Taiwan, cutting it off from the world and plunging the island democracy of 23 million into crisis.

In a 17-minute trailer released last week, the public responds to China's blockade with a mixture of terror and resignation. Young couples ride bikes past tank convoys on empty streets. Criminal gangs stir up chaos on behalf of Beijing and its territorial claims over Taiwan.

Taiwanese shouldn't fight and couldn't win anyway, an influencer tells her followers in the series. "Those who want us to enter the battlefield — they really don't care about our suffering," she says.

It may be fiction, but the show's bleak assessment of Taiwanese readiness to fight touches upon a very real problem facing President Lai Ching-te, who took office in May and whom Beijing considers a dangerous separatist.

The threat from Beijing has intensified as Chinese leader Xi Jinping has declared China's "reunification" with Taiwan inevitable. He has underscored his willingness to use force to achieve that goal by sending rising numbers of warplanes and navy ships to probe the island's defenses.

Taiwan's government has been trying to improve its defenses by extending mandatory military service and revamping ongoing training for reservists as part of a broader shift in defense strategy designed to make Xi think twice before taking a gamble on using force.

But young Taiwanese are not answering the call, and Defense Minister Wellington Koo recently acknowledged that a lack of equipment and instructors has slowed attempts to professionalize reservist training. "I must honestly say that we need to quickly strengthen [training] as there is still a lot of room for improvement," he told the legislature in June.

Such admissions may concern Donald Trump, who has signaled a more transactional approach to American support for Taiwanese defense if he wins a second term as president in November.

Taipei wants to create a professional backup force to support 155,000 active-duty soldiers. All Taiwanese men born in or after 2005 are required to enlist for a year of service, while about 2 million former soldiers are supposed to complete refresher training every two years.

But officials have acknowledged being behind schedule with plans to teach reservists and draftees how to supplement front-line troops in the event of a war. Only 6 percent of eligible conscripts — 6,936 people — took part in the newly implemented 12-month program this year. Most deferred military service to first attend university, meaning the 2005-born intake cohort won't be fully trained until 2027.

Those doing military service this year are not undergoing the anticipated training. A select group of one-year conscripts were supposed to be learning to use drones, Kestrel antitank rockets and surface-to-air Stinger missiles, but there were not enough of them this year to begin the training, according to a Defense Ministry officer.

Taiwan's slow progress on boosting training concerns military experts in Washington and Taipei, who are urging authorities to move faster to deter Xi and prevent a war.

"The last thing that Taiwan wants is for Xi Jinping, as the key decision-maker in China, and for the United States, as the key ally of Taiwan, to doubt Taiwan's commitments to its own defense," said Matt Pottinger, who was U.S. deputy national security adviser in the Trump administration and is now a visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution.

Pottinger said Taiwan needs the political will and foresight to dedicate some of its best military officers to recruitment and instruction. "I'm really hoping that Taiwan makes these sacrifices," he said.

China's military, the largest standing army in the world, has 2 million active personnel and recruits about 400,000 conscripts every year. Its defense budget of $230 billion was 13 times as large as Taiwan's in 2023, and its military regularly trains to take the island in a sudden overwhelming assault.

The United States is required by law to help Taiwan strengthen its own defenses, including through arms sales, but it isn't formally committed to intervening against a Chinese attack, a policy known as "strategic ambiguity."

While President Biden has repeatedly said he would send the U.S. military to defend Taiwan, Trump has made no such promises. Asked what he would do in an interview last month, Trump said that Taiwan was "9,500 miles away" and should pay for American defense.

Taiwan must be "mentally prepared" for a Trump victory in November — and the scrutiny that will come with that, said Mei Fu-hsing, director of the Taiwan Security Analysis Center, a New York-based research center.

Trump would "certainly demand Taiwan to significantly increase its own defense spending and be more proactive in preparing for war," Mei said.

Improved training is a key way for Taiwan to show it is taking military readiness seriously, analysts say. But new programs have continued to face shortages of funding, instructors and equipment, leading to regular complaints from attendees about the quality of instruction, according to reservists as well as official statements acknowledging setbacks.

"It was a complete waste of time," said Vincent Tsao, a 30-year-old scuba diving instructor who spent most of his five days of reservist training last week sitting idly inside, being taught by retired soldiers who openly acknowledged they weren't prepared to lead the program.

Taiwanese men who completed mandatory service within the past 12 years are theoretically called back for refresher training every second year, although in practice many attend far less frequently. Only a fifth of the reservists who went through refresher training last year completed the newly extended two-week course, with the majority doing only five or seven days.

Preparing 2 million reservists for "immediate combat readiness" as a second line of defense is "very important for defending Taiwan," said Han Gang-ming, former director of Taiwan's All-out Defense Mobilization Office, which oversees reservists.

"Since the reserve force is not the primary combat unit, we are always placed last whenever budgets are allocated," Han said.

Since taking office in May, Lai has vowed to press ahead with his predecessor's reforms that will improve readiness and has warned the military to guard against a "defeatist" attitude, telling troops they cannot presume "the first battle will be the last battle" if China attacks.

But the new administration has not announced major changes to training beyond scrapping ceremonial bayonet and goose-stepping drills.

Lai also faces fierce pushback from the Beijing-friendly Kuomintang, which controls the legislature and has accused the ruling Democratic Progressive Party of trying to turn Taiwan into a "powder keg."

China, which wants to undermine Lai, has claimed that he wants to turn ordinary people into "cannon fodder."

But analysts say Taiwan must prepare for the new realities of an increasingly aggressive China.

Taiwan's military strategy has long focused on stopping China before its troops cross the 110-mile strait that separates them, but a growing number of defense analysts in Taipei and Washington say Taiwan must prepare for the worst possible scenario: a protracted battle on the island itself.

"Taiwan's reservists are going to be mobilizing where the fight is happening, when the fight is happening," said Michael Hunzeker, a retired Marine who studies military reform at George Mason University.

The island is patently not ready for that, according to people who have completed military training recently.

Cony Hsieh, 31, who previously enlisted and served as a soldier for six years, signed up for reservist training as soon as women were allowed to join last year. She returned for a second round in May.

While there were minor improvements, the military was moving too slowly to gain public trust and make training more than a formality, she said. "I don't even know what I'm supposed to do in my position if a war breaks out," Hsieh, who is now working on a master's degree, said in an interview.

Rising public concern about a conflict has left many in Taiwan asking themselves what they would do in a "Zero Day" scenario and how far they should allow China's invasion threat to infringe on daily life.

Surveys show a majority of Taiwanese support the decision to lengthen mandatory service, but that doesn't mean they think training is a good use of time or public funds.

"Everyone has their own lives and families. My wife would have to work and take care of the child by herself when I was away," said Hsieh Yu-hsiang, a 30-year-old salesman at an insurance company who attended 14 days of training in early July.

Even so, he supports government plans to strengthen reservist training. "As the threat increases," Hsieh said, "it's inevitable that we need measures in place to respond."

Abigail Hauslohner in Taipei contributed to this report.

Also rather concerning reports of significantly increased stockpiling by China.

[Jacob]

Thank you 

[Sheilbh]

As someone who really likes lots about former Aussie PM Paul Keating, really sad to see him refer to the Taiwanese as "sitting on Chinese real estate" and that the US having a stance on Taiwan would be like China saying to Australia "'look, about Tasmania...'"

He's been drifting this way for a very long time - and I believe has lots of well paid, post-politics consultancy roles with Chinese links. In particular he's been pushing against AUKUS very hard - which matters now given Labor are in power and he's a former Labor PM. Although given that Albanese has promoted the Minister for the Defence Industry to a cabinet position I'm not sure it's having too much impact - but that cabinet shift in itself I feel is telling.

But I suspect the "Chinese real estate, which belongs to China" language might have ultimately discredited him within Australia as whatever your view on what Western countries should do, I feel that's a niche extreme view.

[Jacob]

Yeah that's disappointing

[HVC]

YouTube algorithm is flooding me with China is doomed content. Things like foxconn and hp are leaving, manufacturing sector is crippled, etc. so, question, any of this legit or just normal YouTube commentator bluster.

[Admiral Yi]

If the two sides of the bet are doomed and clickbait, my money is on clickbait.

[Jacob]

It's a narrative that's gathering a bit of steam.

It does seem that a number of economic indicators (and large companies) are pointing negative. Anecdotally, a number of friends and acquaintances in China are pretty doom and gloom about companies leaving, about job security, and about overall economic trends in China.

That said, there is definitely an audience for "China is doomed" and a segment of the content creation industry that is more than willing to cater to it whether for simple economic or political reasons. So any actual trend is definitely going to be amplified significantly.

Which is to say, I don't know. It's probably a combination of hot air and some substance. Personally I'm not going to believe in China's collapse until it actually happens (meaning I'll be surprised by it, not cleverly predict it).

[Zanza]

I doubt it is doomed, but they will not be able to get back to the high growth rates of the last decades.

As the statistics on purchasing power, average age and fertility are likely to be reasonably correct despite Chinese fake data, it is fairly clear that China is at or even past peak employment, but still a middle income country. These demographic trends might change, but it would likely take decades. A contracting workforce in a fast-aging society will eventually make economic expansion tougher to achieve and more capital intensive, but Chinese financial markets do not work as well as the US financial markets.

Their attempt at growing via exports will work to a degree, but will cause more reactions like the recent 100% duty on cars in the US and Canada. An economy the size of China is too large for just export as growth factor though.

[Valmy]

China is not doomed but obviously its growth wasn't going to continue forever. Eventually it would run out of gas and the efforts to keep the party going were going to be counter-productive. And that is all that is going on here.

The question is will the Chinese government be able to successfully re-adjust to their new reality.

I will say that for a country that grew so much due to globalization and free trade and all of that it is kind of fascinating how their policies kind of undermine both of those things. They have done a great job scaring the United States into reshoring so much of its stuff back to Mexico. I guess they figure they are big enough now that they don't need or want to do business with us as much anymore.

[DGuller]

I think it's possible for China to have a painful adjustment, there is probably quite a lot of malinvestment going on right now that may not be sustainable indefinitely, but I don't see any reason to expect collapse.  In contrast to Russia, China seems to be setting itself up for long-term success fundamental block by fundamental block, and it can weather quite a few calamities.