Tory Wars

[Richard Hakluyt]

The French had some experience with the CFA Franc :

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CFA_franc

Of course the CFA countries have small economies compared to France, which is probably why it has managed to work all these years.

[fhdz]

Maybe they went short EUR/USD.

[Warspite]

We will now see whether the eurosceptic wing of the Tory party is as strong as some make out.

I suspect Cameron and Osborne full well realise what a failure to resolve the euro crisis by any means necessary would imply for the City of London, and they also have Lib Dem allies to call upon.

Worst comes to worst, I think there are enough reasonable MPs in the Commons across the benches to vote down as hostage-taking referendum bill.

I think. But the lunacy of democratic governments across the Western world over the last few years has not filled me with confidence.

I don't think we need the UK in the EU. I mean it's not like it's a mecca for job seekers anymore. And I will enjoy seeing all British expats in Poland being kicked out unless they get a visa. 

Poland's interests would indeed be well served by the one other major EU power keen on a single market that is both free and competitive.

[Sheilbh]

It also beggars belief that a currency for 350m Europeans was designed so badly that the opinions and maneuverings of the xenophobic wing of the Tory party has any relevance 

This is true.  I don't think they're simply xenophobes either.

I just hope that enough people recognise that though they may want to renegotiate and repatriate powers that there's a time to do that and when the Euro's teetering on the edge (may well be doomed already) it's probably best to just enable the rest of the EZ to carry on.

Although I wonder how the government would ratify the treaty in such a way as to avoid a legal challenge under their (absurd) 'referendum lock'

Worst comes to worst, I think there are enough reasonable MPs in the Commons across the benches to vote down as hostage-taking referendum bill.

I think. But the lunacy of democratic governments across the Western world over the last few years has not filled me with confidence.

I think the sign of IDS, BJ and Davis on manoeuvres is worrying on that front.  That's a potential leadership threat to Cameron and certainly to any (absurd) hopes Osborne has.  I also find the language being used by the sceptics a bit worrying.  I know they love rhetoric but when you've got MPs in the media publicly comparing Cameron to Chamberlain it's difficult to climb down.

The other danger is I think Labour's moving.  I don't know if it's an ideological shift, cynicism or a combination of both but I think they're on their way to taking a far more Eurosceptic position.

Edit:  Also this just seems far more brutal than anything I've seen before.  Tories really are quite heartless.  The attitude on the backbenches towards Cameron looks like what Blair went through in 2006-7.  They were far more supportive even at the height of Iraq.  And, as Peter Oborne says, four out of the last five Tory leaders has had their term ended in some way due to Europe.  I don't know why but it drives the Tories mad.

Edit:  One thought.  If we ratify the treaty with Lib Dem and Labour supporting it but Cameron losing more than half of the Tories how long could the government last?

[Jacob]

What tools does Cameron have to keep IDS and his cronies in line?

It doesn't seem like much at this point?

[PJL]

With regards to some sort of Tobin Tax on the financial centre of London, I don't think there is support for an EU wide implimentation of it by any of the main parties here, unless it's done on a global level. So it's pretty much not going to happen, not without the UK leaving the EU first.

[jimmy olsen]

At least we Germans will have a scapegoat then. 

Stab in the back!

[Sheilbh]

What tools does Cameron have to keep IDS and his cronies in line?

It doesn't seem like much at this point?

I can't think of much.  His cabinet politics are made especially difficult because of the nature of coalition politics, he has to balance the Lib Dems against his own right-wing.  There are two other problems that will only increase the threat for Cameron.

One is that he's cut the number of MPs from around 650 to 600 at the next election.  There are 50 fewer seats available for MPs.  Many constituency boundaries have been changed.  Because of all this many Tory MPs are having to fight to be reselected by their constituency parties.  I think there's more need to be a dry Eurosceptic for Tory MPs now because there's nothing that excites the activists like Europe.

The second problem is the nature of EU treaty negotiations and ratification.  The timeline that's been suggested is that this treaty will come into force in March.  That's unprecedented and, I'd suggest, rather optimistic.  Maastricht, Amsterdam and Nice all took 2-3 years at least, Lisbon took even longer, especially if you include the Constitution. 

But even if we allow for that optimistic timetable that's several months in which the pressure will simply grow.  Tory MPs will go home for the Christmas recess where they'll meet their angry activists.  Then the EU process will go on there'll no doubt be issues with the Czechs, apparently the Finns aren't sold on the constitutionality of the proposals, the German Constitutional Court would look at it and the Irish (at least) will vote.  All the time that's happening the question of the Tory right becomes more compelling.  Why don't we get a vote?

I think this blog from the Telegraph is fair on Cameron's position:

Is David Cameron a beef-eating surrender monkey?

By Robert Colvile Politics Last updated: December 8th, 2011

David Cameron is about to make the most sudden transformation since Clark Kent walked into a phone booth. At home, he is castigated as a weak leader, a beef-eating surrender monkey who is missing out on a historic opportunity to demand the repatriation of powers (or, more charitably, as a Conservative mugged by reality – a genuine Eurosceptic whose alarm at the prospect of a new Great Depression sensibly outweighs his hostility to fiscal union).

If that's the case, someone should tell the Europeans. For while the PM sets out from Britain as Cowardly Cam, he arrives as Dangerous Dave, the man threatening to pull down the whole euro-edifice around their heads. In his pre-conference remarks, Jose Manuel Barroso warned: "What I expect from all Heads of State and Government is they do not come saying what they can not do but what they will do for Europe.All the world is watching us. And what the world awaits from us is not more national problems but European solutions." In short – look out, Britain's about.

Don't believe me? Look at the front page of Die Welt today, which tells us "Britain wants out of Europe." A piece by Robin Alexander on the paper's website (English version here via Google's wonky translation software) lays things bare. What we perceived as a surrender by Dave – limiting his demands for concessions to a Tobin tax that was never going to work anyway – is in fact a stick of dynamite thrown into the eurozone, the demand for Britain to be able to create a regulation-free Hong Kong on the edge of Europe in which the irresponsible speculation that Angela Merkel blames for the 2008 crisis can flourish untamed. So shocking are Cameron's proposals, says the piece, that those in Berlin thought Cameron was having a laugh – and surely he would never have the crazed audacity to put these proposals on the table?

Whatever the outcome of tomorrow's summit, the basic problem remains, months into this seemingly endless crisis: an utterly incompatible interpretation of its causes and consequences between Britain and the Continent. We see the euro as a galactically stupid economic experiment that is wrecking many if not most of those nations who are part of it, locking them into exchange rates that mean their economies can never, ever become competitive with Germany's, still less the rest of the world. They see the euro as an irreversible expression of political and economic solidarity, under threat not from its own internal contradictions but from the dangerous speculation of the Anglo-Saxon capitalists who have already done so much to humble the West.

So, as if we needed another element of instability in this crisis, here it is. The Europeans don't and can't understand what the British want. And the British don't and can't understand what the Europeans want. And poor David Cameron is caught between them, trying to find the impossible deal that will satisfy these utterly incompatible constituencies.

[CountDeMoney]

And all of you laughed at me back on the old EUOT when I said the UK would've been better off joining NAFTA.

[Martinus]

I keep forgetting you can't discuss EU politics on Languish because there are too many ignorant knee-jerk-anti-EU American tards here.

[Martinus]

Anyway, it seems tories got what they wanted.

There will be no change of treaties. There will be a new treaty of 23 EU member states. The two speed Europe is the reality.

The stragglers outside are UK, Hungary, Sweden and Czech Republic. 

[Richard Hakluyt]

Hungary is in the elite for once.........Tamas will be pleased 

[Martinus]

Hungary is in the elite for once.........Tamas will be pleased 

This sounds like one of these weird protestant alliances from EU3.

[Richard Hakluyt]

There is a good old-school headline at the Guardian right now :

"Eurozone countries go it alone with new treaty that excludes Britain"

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/dec/09/eurozone-countries-treaty-exclude-britain

Poor souls, I do hope they will be alright 

[CountDeMoney]

I keep forgetting you can't discuss EU politics on Languish because there are too many ignorant knee-jerk-anti-EU American tards here.

If I were a backwards Eastern European, I'd be defensive about the one system that brought food and electricity to my miserable existence, too.