[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[Malthus]

Yeah, it'll be another point of interest how the Conservatives handle Quebec, given it's primarily represented by the NDP at this point.

If he takes the long view, he'll attempt to make inroads into Quebec at all costs. This election gave him a majority under unusual circumstances - a collapse of libs in Ontario - that he can't count on in the future: he will need to expand holdings in Quebec if he expects a majority next time.

if you can govern in a majority without more seats in Quebec than you have now, not too much reason to look desperate for support there. Agreed on the second count - if the pundits are right that there was a 3% switch of voters from Lib to Con in Ontario and elsewhere to halt a surging NDP, they might go back to a more competently-lead Lib party in a heartbeat if the NDP is receding or in danger of swallowing up the Liberal party via moderating to the center of the political spectrum.

Obviously it is possible to govern with meagre Quebec holdings, but it is very, very difficult - this election was highly unusual in that respect.

The natural corollary to the "Ontario support for cons is extremely fickle" point is "therefore, you need something more than token support in Quebec for safety".

[viper37]

As for some of the new conservatives from Ontario, some of them seem *gasp* competent - quite unlike the bunch of morons we had in Quebec.

Yeah.  Like Denis Coderre was an über competent minister.  Or Pierre Paquette was a great MP with a sharp mind...  As I said, stop reading Le Devoir and listening to Montreal's thrash radios.  Josée Verner was alright when you listened to her, she knew her stuff, she worked for the region.  Maxime Bernier was out of his place at foreing affairs, he should have staid at Industry Canada.  Paradis is alright, so is Cannon, so was the MP from Lac St-Jean area.

On the other hand, when you look at people like Christianne Gagnon (Bloc), you really wonder where the Bloc recruited its MPs.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ktRHd4gLhHY&feature=share

I really don't see how the Bloc supposedly had better MPs than the Cons.

The only problem I can see with Josée Verner is that she was too nice.  I would have wanted her to display more agressivenes.
But when I hear the mayor (not a Cons fan) and the new MP complimenting her work, saying she accomplished a lot for Quebec, I'm thinking some people will never be satisfied by a right-wing MP.

[crazy canuck]

And remember he came from the Reform Party - which in part attacked and destroyed the Federal PC Party for not being right-wing enough.

And everyone especially Harper remembers how that worked out...

[crazy canuck]

Admit it CC, you and Malthus have weekly skype sessions about your hidden social conservative agenda!

Skype is too easy to crack, and so our secret meetings would not remain secret very long.  We have started using.... Doh!

[Jacob]

Me.

But more seriously, there are people to whom abortion is an issue.  There are little old ladies who do tons of volunteer work for the Conservative Party because that's what God would want.  He can't completely ignore that base.

You expect to see action on abortion with this Harper majority? CC says Harper said he wouldn't touch it.

[Barrister]

Me.

But more seriously, there are people to whom abortion is an issue.  There are little old ladies who do tons of volunteer work for the Conservative Party because that's what God would want.  He can't completely ignore that base.

You expect to see action on abortion with this Harper majority? CC says Harper said he wouldn't touch it.

No, I don't.

I do expect he'll throw a few bones out to socially conservative types though.

[Jacob]

No, I don't.

I do expect he'll throw a few bones out to socially conservative types though.

Yeah, me too.

Part of the trick for him will be to throw bones that are substantial enough to keep the socons reasonably quiet, but not so meaty that people like CC and Malthus start thinking "wait, Jacob was actually *right* when he fretted about Harper enacting loathsome social conservative policies."

Because if there's one thing those guys don't like, it's admitting I was right about anything on Languish; so if they end up feeling forced into that position, they might never forgive Harper.

[crazy canuck]

I do expect he'll throw a few bones out to socially conservative types though.

Define bones.  I think it is much more likely things will go the way Malthus described and the way the social conservative fringe has been dealt with in the past - ie ignored.  The numbers of those little old ladies you talked about is growing pretty small by the year and if they want to go off and vote for the Christian Heritage Party or something similar, as a practical matter - so what.

The Reform movement wasnt animated by social conservatism.  It was animated by fiscal conservatism.  I doubt that any social conservative movement would gain any traction.  Look up how many votes the Christian Heritage Party got in Abbotsford (our bible belt) for example.

[crazy canuck]

Part of the trick for him will be to throw bones that are substantial enough to keep the socons reasonably quiet, but not so meaty that people like CC and Malthus start thinking "wait, Jacob was actually *right* when he fretted about Harper enacting loathsome social conservative policies."

Same question to you, what bones do you think he will throw?

[Josephus]

Me.

But more seriously, there are people to whom abortion is an issue.  There are little old ladies who do tons of volunteer work for the Conservative Party because that's what God would want.  He can't completely ignore that base.

You expect to see action on abortion with this Harper majority? CC says Harper said he wouldn't touch it.

No, I don't.

I do expect he'll throw a few bones out to socially conservative types though.

This.

I don't think he'll touch abortion because it's such a --well, touchy and weighty subject. We've had this issue 20-30 years ago and not politician wants to touch that again. But I reject the notion that social conservatives are all Little Old Ladies. They are a fairly large group, including many Catholics and other Christian faiths, many of whom, but not all , voted for the Conservatives.

As an example my uncle who votes Conservatives because he cant stand the thought of "those homos getting married." [His words not mine] As if Harper is gonna touch that one. But there's the sense that if anyone will protect "white, Christian values" it's the Conservative Party.

[Josephus]

No, I don't.

I do expect he'll throw a few bones out to socially conservative types though.

Yeah, me too.

Part of the trick for him will be to throw bones that are substantial enough to keep the socons reasonably quiet, but not so meaty that people like CC and Malthus start thinking "wait, Jacob was actually *right* when he fretted about Harper enacting loathsome social conservative policies."

Because if there's one thing those guys don't like, it's admitting I was right about anything on Languish; so if they end up feeling forced into that position, they might never forgive Harper.

Nah, they'll never say you're right even when you are. CC will find some way to spin it in his favour. [I don't include Malthus in the same boat, though...he's a bit more reasonable]

[Ed Anger]

As an example my uncle who votes Conservatives because he cant stand the thought of "those homos getting married." [His words not mine]

He must have read Mart's posts. I know I'd be anti gay too after that.

[Valmy]

As an example my uncle who votes Conservatives because he cant stand the thought of "those homos getting married." [His words not mine] As if Harper is gonna touch that one. But there's the sense that if anyone will protect "white, Christian values" it's the Conservative Party.

Glad to know it is only the white Christians who oppose gay marriage.

[Barrister]

I do expect he'll throw a few bones out to socially conservative types though.

Define bones.  I think it is much more likely things will go the way Malthus described and the way the social conservative fringe has been dealt with in the past - ie ignored.  The numbers of those little old ladies you talked about is growing pretty small by the year and if they want to go off and vote for the Christian Heritage Party or something similar, as a practical matter - so what.

The Reform movement wasnt animated by social conservatism.  It was animated by fiscal conservatism.  I doubt that any social conservative movement would gain any traction.  Look up how many votes the Christian Heritage Party got in Abbotsford (our bible belt) for example.

Reform was animated by a lot of different types.  It was part populist anger, part fiscal conservatism, part regional anxiety, part social conservatism.  I've met plenty of little old Church ladies who were socially conservative (as well as bright, educated evangelicals with the same views).

The "bones" are probably steps like increased willingness to work with faith-based groups for delivering social programs.  Cuts to some more overtly left-wing programs (though with NAC-W and the Court Challenges Program gone, I can't think of any at the moment).  And more general optics - keep saying "God Bless Canada".


That being said, I sure wich we could pass some kind of abortion law.  Not one making it illegal, but just setting out some basic guidelines are rules.

[Josephus]

According to Wiki:

In modern Canadian politics, social conservatives often felt that they were being sidelined by officials in the Progressive Conservative Party of Canada. Many of them felt shunned by a party that was largely led and run by Red Tories for the last half of the twentieth century. Many eventually made their political home with the Reform Party of Canada and its forerunner the Social Credit Party of Canada. Despite Reform leader Preston Manning's attempts to broaden the support of the Reform movement through populism, the party was dominated by social conservatives. Manning's reluctance to allow his party to wholly embrace socially conservative values contributed to his deposition as leader of the new Canadian Alliance in favour of Stockwell Day.[5