[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[Jacob]

... and the Conservatives continue their push for electability, with a revolt underway against O'Toole led by folks upset that the party failed to oppose legislation that outlawed conversion therapy.

WE need BB to weigh in on this.

Yeah, it'd be good to have his perspective. Alas....

[Jacob]

So I wonder, will the Conservative party go further towards the Trumpist-Trucker-"REAL Conservative(tm)" side or will they pick someone more palatable to Atlantic Canada and the suburban voters of Toronto and Vancouver?

Given the revolt is coming from the "we resent O'Toole tacking to the centre but not winning" side of the party, I'm expecting a drift rightward.

Pierre Poilievre seems to be manoeuvring for his chance (I heard his parents named him after Pierre Elliot Trudeau )... I wonder what his chances are.

[PRC]

The Conservatives need a schism.  Let the pro-conversion therapy evangelicals go their own way, let the deplorables go to the PPC (they're probably already there for the most part anyways) leaving the rational wing to stand in center-right on their own.  If BB was here I'm sure he would say that's a recipe for disaster and guaranteed electoral loss to the Libs, but the opposite would occur... it would bring many back to the fold who won't consider voting for the current Conservative lot because of the crazies they're sheltering.  The shelf life on Trudeau is reaching it's due date, or already past it, and a Conservative option that didn't harbour the crazies would be a palatable choice for many Canadians.

[Jacob]

Yeah that makes sense to me... but given how much effort the Reform wing has put into subjugating the Red Tory wing of the party - and given how their path to power lies in bringer as many Red Tories and sympathizers with them while maintaining as much of their Praire populist social conservative policies - I don't see them leaving.

Though, I guess, provincially in Alberta the Reform right wing types keep trying to pull that same playbook - schisming to the right, then taking over the rump less rightwing party they just left... so maybe they'd be able to pull it off again Federally as well.

[Josephus]

O'toole's out.

[Jacob]

Bam!

So... who's going to be the interim leader? Who's running for leadership next? Is it going to be our boy Pierre P?

[Jacob]

... really missing BB right around now. Would value his take.

[Grey Fox]

Pierre P will be fun. Especially when the journos finally start spelling out all his financial maneuvering.

[viper37]

Outside of Liberal talking points, I really don't see how O'Toole was cozy with the protesters.

He went to speak to them in person. Seems pretty cozy, no?

I miss that part until today.  I had only heard his speech of last Thursday saying he was open to discussion with anyone.

[Jacob]

"O'Toole has time and again betrayed the party's socially conservative base with his support for abortion, LGBT ideology, oppressive lockdowns, and liberty-destroying passports for abortion-tainted vaccines," said Jeff Gunnarson, the president of the Campaign Life Coalition. "It's about time this fake conservative was given the boot."

[Malthus]

I think this is gonna destroy the Conservative party for a while. Lots of red Tories will defect or not vote. I can't see a groundswell of support for an anti-gay rights party in Ontario or Quebec any time soon. That sort of social conservatism has limited appeal in central Canada.

The NDP remains pretty hopeless.

I guess we gotta get used to the Liberals being in power for a long time to come. Not an ideal state of affairs to be sure.

[Jacob]

What would it take for the NDP to not be hopeless, in your estimation Malthus?

[Jacob]

Also... I do think that the organizers of the convoy (both Canadians and foreign) are hoping this will coalesce into a Tea Party like moment in Canada - the genesis of an organization and (eventually) a popular movement that will allow the radical right to take over the right wing party of Canada and move the discourse and the population further right.

I wonder how likely it is to work.

[crazy canuck]

Yeah that makes sense to me... but given how much effort the Reform wing has put into subjugating the Red Tory wing of the party - and given how their path to power lies in bringer as many Red Tories and sympathizers with them while maintaining as much of their Praire populist social conservative policies - I don't see them leaving.

Though, I guess, provincially in Alberta the Reform right wing types keep trying to pull that same playbook - schisming to the right, then taking over the rump less rightwing party they just left... so maybe they'd be able to pull it off again Federally as well.

Some historical context, the Reform Party already left the Conservatives once.  The only difference is that, as you have noted, it is the Reformers who dominated the party when it reformed (see what I did there  )

Harper did well to keep the Reformers under control - only Nixon could go to China and all that.  But with him gone the Reformers have no restraint and have been driving hard right and driving the party into the same electoral obscurity the Reform party had.

We had about two decades of Liberal rule when it happened the last time.  Probably in for a bit longer this time, unless the NDP can get its act together.

[crazy canuck]

Also... I do think that the organizers of the convoy (both Canadians and foreign) are hoping this will coalesce into a Tea Party like moment in Canada - the genesis of an organization and (eventually) a popular movement that will allow the radical right to take over the right wing party of Canada and move the discourse and the population further right.

I wonder how likely it is to work.

What makes you think the radical right has not already taken over the Conservatives?