[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[Jacob]

I can't imagine too many Conservative voters care enough about the holy trinity of dairy supply management, rabid anti-multiculuralism, and Maxime Bernier's wounded ego to support this venture seriously - especially given its enormous political price tag (handing Trudeau another victory).

I suspect if he really goes ahead with it (and that may not really be his goal) it will pick up a small handful of seats max before fizzling out.

I actually see some merit in Bernier's stance on dairy supply management.

[crazy canuck]

He might as well. If Scheer's Conservatives will govern just like the Liberals, what difference does it make if Trudeau stays in power?

I see someone has been paying attention to Bernier's talking points.  Well done.

[Barrister]

Goddamnit - I typed out a lengthy critique of Bernier - but apparently it's gone.

Anyways CC you're wrong.  Although I agree with several of Bernier's points (in particular on supply management) there's not a chance in hell I'm supporting him in this endeavour.  Don't make perfect the enemy of the good.

[crazy canuck]

A bet I am happy to lose 

[Barrister]

A bet I am happy to lose 

OK going to re-type some of what I attempted to post earlier...

I don't know what's with some of my favourite Conservatives leaving the party - first Steven Fletcher and now Bernier.  Makes me sad.

I supported Bernier for leader (though he has his flaws).  I said I saw nothing wrong with his initial comments on diversity.  Though I'll admit I follow him on FB and I was getting to the point where I was thinking "you've made your point, now shut up and move on to something else".

But I accept that supporting a party doesn't mean supporting 100% of all policy positions.  You have to balance the political ideal vs political reality.  But on balance, a Scheer government would be night and day different from a Trudeau government (and in this I strongly disagree with Zagys/Ancient Demon).  And for that reason I will easily continue to support the Conservative Party of Canada.

And I have to correct CC - I never left the Progressive Conservative Party. I only ever joined the PC Party in order to vote for Kenney for leader, under his explicit promise to merge with Wildrose.

Anyways, speaking neutrally, Bernier's timing is all wrong.  Certainly there have been right-wing splinter parties spring up from time to time.  But they have only ever seen success at times when there was an existing right-wing government.  In times when government was left-wing right-wingers are sensible enough to know not to split their own vote.

[Oexmelin]

Do you have a sense of how much Bernier's timing is dominated by internal leadership issues? Or is it a matter of misreading (or correctly assessing?) his support?

[Barrister]

Do you have a sense of how much Bernier's timing is dominated by internal leadership issues? Or is it a matter of misreading (or correctly assessing?) his support?

I don't know.  Once upon a time I was quite active in the party, but now I'm basically a paper membership.

He definitely had genuine grass-roots support for the leadership.  And quite a bit.  Scheer was only ahead on the last ballot after all.  But I strongly doubt whether his supporters were personally loyal to Bernier, as opposed to Conservative Party loyalists who felt Bernier might make the best leader.

[crazy canuck]

A bet I am happy to lose 

OK going to re-type some of what I attempted to post earlier...

I don't know what's with some of my favourite Conservatives leaving the party - first Steven Fletcher and now Bernier.  Makes me sad.

I supported Bernier for leader (though he has his flaws).  I said I saw nothing wrong with his initial comments on diversity.  Though I'll admit I follow him on FB and I was getting to the point where I was thinking "you've made your point, now shut up and move on to something else".

But I accept that supporting a party doesn't mean supporting 100% of all policy positions.  You have to balance the political ideal vs political reality.  But on balance, a Scheer government would be night and day different from a Trudeau government (and in this I strongly disagree with Zagys/Ancient Demon).  And for that reason I will easily continue to support the Conservative Party of Canada.

And I have to correct CC - I never left the Progressive Conservative Party. I only ever joined the PC Party in order to vote for Kenney for leader, under his explicit promise to merge with Wildrose.

Anyways, speaking neutrally, Bernier's timing is all wrong.  Certainly there have been right-wing splinter parties spring up from time to time.  But they have only ever seen success at times when there was an existing right-wing government.  In times when government was left-wing right-wingers are sensible enough to know not to split their own vote.

Reform is the counter example to your last two paragraphs

It only really became successful when the Conservatives collapsed.  They didn't win a seat when the Conservatives won their second majority iirc

This could work for Scheer to motivate Conservatives, his speech is going to be a defining moment.  He has gained points for the way he has handled this so far

[Camerus]

I can't imagine too many Conservative voters care enough about the holy trinity of dairy supply management, rabid anti-multiculuralism, and Maxime Bernier's wounded ego to support this venture seriously - especially given its enormous political price tag (handing Trudeau another victory).

I suspect if he really goes ahead with it (and that may not really be his goal) it will pick up a small handful of seats max before fizzling out.

I actually see some merit in Bernier's stance on dairy supply management.

As do I - but it's a rather peripheral issue for most folks.

[crazy canuck]

I have heard commentary from Quebec, sorry I forget the name of the person making the comment, wondering out loud where Bernier was when the issue he raised in his tweets were being debated in that province over the last decade or so.  One gets the impression he is simply an opportunist.

[Ancient Demon]

But on balance, a Scheer government would be night and day different from a Trudeau government (and in this I strongly disagree with Zagys/Ancient Demon).

I sure hope so, maybe I'm being too pessimistic.

[Jacob]

But on balance, a Scheer government would be night and day different from a Trudeau government (and in this I strongly disagree with Zagys/Ancient Demon).  And for that reason I will easily continue to support the Conservative Party of Canada.

What do you expect to be the main distinctions? And where would there be little difference?

[Jacob]

Good to see that a mere 47% of Conservatives want to reopen the abortion debate.

[viper37]

Good to see that a mere 47% of Conservatives want to reopen the abortion debate.

47% of the delegates.  not 47% of Conservatives.

It's a suicidal issue for the party.  if Scheer is smart, he'll see it just as Harper did.  If not, then I guess I'll have to find another party, and they'll collectively join Mad Max in the opposition to Justin "Selfie" Trudeau for a long, long, long while.

[crazy canuck]

Good to see that a mere 47% of Conservatives want to reopen the abortion debate.

47% of the delegates.  not 47% of Conservatives.

It's a suicidal issue for the party.  if Scheer is smart, he'll see it just as Harper did.  If not, then I guess I'll have to find another party, and they'll collectively join Mad Max in the opposition to Justin "Selfie" Trudeau for a long, long, long while.

The problem is, ahead of the vote Scheer essentially made the point you did, and it was still a close vote.