Languish Universalis - Game thread

[Alcibiades]

I don't read this thread religiously.  I was going to do it, but the save objects to something I deleted and is kablooey. If you want to post a very conservative estimate of the income you have potentially lost over the years listed I don't have a problem putting it in to either your tech or treasury as long as everyone agrees.

[Berkut]

OK, after fixing the save, I ran the save game.

Kulunda - Iron - 24.12
Kuznetsk - Fur - 15.15
Kachinsk - Copper - 31.15
Bratsk - Copper - 27.74
Ilinsk - Iron - 22.66

Berkne never chose a tradegood - perhaps I messed up the fix?

All these had a production value of 2.00 listed before they chose their tradegood,  guess that must be the default value?

Of course, there is compounding here - what really sucks is that I should have had manufactories in all these metal producing provinces all this time, which means I have lost all the tech that production represents, PLUS the production from doubled manufactories in these and the land tech bonus tech from that as well, minus the cost of the manufactories, of course.

Now it will take me 5 years to even get the tech bonus/manufactoriing bonus from them even starting now.

Anyway, looking at these, the yearly income difference is anywhere from 15-30 ducats each. Over 50 years, that is ~800-1400 ducats per province looking *only* at the actual lost production, and ignoring any compounding at all. Of course, I could get unlucky, and they could all produce grain instead, which would be a hell of a lot less.

I would like to see someone else chime in. Frankly, I don't agree with the idea that we should look at some ultra-conservative estimate, as I think that will seriously under-sell the problem, especially when you consider how backward Russia is anyway - every little bit is that much more important, when you have very little to begin with.

The way I see it, without this bug, all of these provinces would be shelling out ~20 ducats/year (would that actually be 40, since it is divided over monthly and yearly income? I've never really been clear how that works), and half of them would have weapons manufactories in them for a decent chunk of that time as well, which would be another 10d/year, and another +5 land tech investment/month.

Throw on top of that the compounded value of money.

On the other hand, it is just a game, and I have had plenty of fun playing with screwed up production all this time, and will have plenty of fun continuing to play even if we don't adjust it by a penny. Shrug.

[DGuller]

Here's my partial take on it, as a neutral observer.  Compounding works both ways.  The production values you get are after 50 years.  They would likely not be nearly as high originally, as population, demand, and multipliers grow over time.  My gut instinct is that multiplying the current values by 50 would about get it right, as that assumes that the income in the provinces in question grew at the same rate as the compounding that you're talking about.

As for manufacturies, it's a far more intangible loss.  When you couldn't build them in those provinces 50 years ago because of a bug, did you just not build them at all, or did you instead build them in other provinces?  I don't you see why you wouldn't build them somewhere else 50 years ago, unless you already built them everywhere you could.  And, even if you couldn't build them 50 years ago, some of that money must've been spent on other income-producing stuff.  In short, estimating all that is very complicated.

[Solmyr]

IMO a rough estimate of the lost province production should suffice, bringing manufactories into the equation is getting too complicated. Trade goods from five provinces can't have been a major part of income for Russia.

[Berkut]

As for manufacturies, it's a far more intangible loss.  When you couldn't build them in those provinces 50 years ago because of a bug, did you just not build them at all, or did you instead build them in other provinces?  I don't you see why you wouldn't build them somewhere else 50 years ago, unless you already built them everywhere you could.  And, even if you couldn't build them 50 years ago, some of that money must've been spent on other income-producing stuff.  In short, estimating all that is very complicated.

Hmmm, that is a good point. I probably have only a very marginal capacity to build any more manufacturies than I have already.

Like I said, I am going to have plenty of fun regardless of what we choose, so it doesn't matter all that much, other than that we get it fixed. The save file I posted, btw, is good - it does fix the problems.

Alcy askd about checksum - I think we should still be at HPZE, IIRC.

[sbr]

The way I see it, without this bug, all of these provinces would be shelling out ~20 ducats/year (would that actually be 40, since it is divided over monthly and yearly income? I've never really been clear how that works)....

Trade good don't have anything to do with yearly income, that is taxes only which shouldn't have been affected.

[DGuller]

In my line of work, I actually get to roughly estimate the effect of fuck-ups fairly often, so this is somewhat familiar territory to me.  Obviously I love my job, because I can't resist inserting myself into this.

My recommendation would be to take the current production value of the province, subtract the current production value of the province if it has the unknown good (i.e. immediately before the fix), and multiply it by the number of years since colonizing (and not by twice that, as production income is only monthly, not yearly).  Repeat that for every province in question, and add up the totals.  That total should be invested into techs, not straight ducats, since that's where the income would've been going.  IMO, that would be the best balance between simplicity and accuracy.  It would overestimate the actual production income lost, but that overestimate should roughly cover the other effects like opportunity costs.

[The Brain]

  Thanks, nerd.

[Alcibiades]

Sounds reasonable.  Try to get the info before tonight please?  Not sure what time I may become unavailable tonight.....

We'll use your save since the game doesn't like what I did to the save.  You didn't advance any days, did you?

[Berkut]

Nope, I didn't even load it - just loaded it into a text editor, and searched for the offending string and deleted the flag when it was found.

The problem DG, is that we don't actually know what the production value will be, since we don't know what it is going to produce - it is random based on the region. This region seems to produce:

Copper (~30 lost)
Iron (~24 lost)
Furs (~15 lost)
Grain (~8 lost)

The first three are pretty valuable, the last much less so, although running the save doesn't seem to have grain show up very often.

So it will have to be an estimate, regardless.

The years missed are: 54, 54, 53, 47, 44, 32. Total of 284 years of lost production.

Damn, that is actually longer than I though, I was looking at when they became provinces, but the tradegood_picked flag actually has a date, which of course is before they become a province. Also, I was surprised to note that it doesn't scale that much - my new provinces that produce iron or copper or furs product nearly as much as my provinces that have been around for a very long time - I am guessing production values are not as dependent on things like population as taxes.

Example: Archangelsk, which I have had for damn near forever, produces 1.2 units of furs, and that gets a total production of 30.33. North Ufa, which I took over pretty recently and has 1/3rd the population of Archangelsk, produces 1.2 units of fures and gets total production of 28.0. So I think the assumption that there is any significant compounding of the value isn't really warranted. There might be some based on demand, but that would be it.

The value difference per year is varies between 8 and 30, although if you discount grain it varies between 15 and 30.

Lets assume an average of 20. That gives us:

20x284 years is 5680. Which really isn't all that much, when it comes right down to it - does not even represent a single tech level.

[Alcibiades]

Where would you like it invested?  And you have run the save?  When I removed the the flags for some reason it went all bonkers in game, not saving any of the information, TI all over etc.

[Berkut]

What did you remove?

480=
{
    flags=
    {
        tradegood_picked=
        {
            status=yes
            date="1620.9.8"
        }
    }
    variables=
    {
    }
    name="Kulunda"

That is how the beginning of the entry for Kulunda looks with the bug.

This is how it looks when fixed:

480=
{
    flags=
    {
    }
    variables=
    {
    }
    name="Kulunda"

I would be perfectly happy to have it divided evenly amongst all my tech, excepting naval and government - mainly because government is about to flip anyway, so I am not sure if it would mess anything up to add to it and take it over the threshold.

[Alcibiades]

Alright, got it.

You're about to flip on 3 techs now.  Put you within 2 ducats of land, couple hundred on production, and couple thousand left on trade.  About 6,000 I put in, which seems alright.

[Berkut]

Ive just realized how futile this all is.

I am worrying about the income from my lame ass colonies in Siberia, because I am losing out on a whopping 20d income, while the rest of you laugh at such paltry change. Habs and the rest of you have single colonies that make more than any 3 of my lame ass colonies put together.

I am jazzed when I find some Iron, because that means this province will be worth a whopping 50% of the value of your typical tobacco/coffee/spices province that the rest of the world has dozens of.

[Alcibiades]

Well this paltry ass problem cost me a lot of time( See nearly an hour) because I forgot how to locate shit in EU saves.