Quo Vadis, Democrats?

[Oexmelin]

Not to worry, I am sure the new statistics published by the US government will show the true linkages are between being a Democrat, and engaging in criminal behavior.

[Tonitrus]

In the US crime reporting is screwy, so it is hard to say.  If I'd guess, people are more likely to consume illegal drugs than rob a store or a steal a car.

Arguably, in many cases, those two are connected.  That is, robbing/stealing in order to buy illegal drugs, which is often both connected with poverty.  We too often fool ourselves into thinking there is just one core problem (poverty, drug-addiction, etc), that if we fix, will solve it.  These are often connected in many ways, but none are a singular mole that we can whack.

But that being said, I tend to think that reducing poverty (also from many conditions, be it poor economic policy to income disparity) while also proper enforcement of crime* are both necessary.

*and I won't even get started on how much reform of our corrections/penal system needs to go hand-in-hand with that as well.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah - I think it's actually quite important. I don't think you can have any aspiration to a social-whatever politics, whether socialist or social democrat, without encouraging and enforcing pro-social behaviour. The degradation of our shared public space is antithetical to that type of politics, while it's absolutely fine if you're well off or able to choose the spaces you live in. I also think it probably as an impact on social trust which again is important. And it does have an impact - in the UK everyday corner shops having bank like screens around the till, or security tagging on many items.

I think it is more to do with policing than punishment. Certainly in the UK there was a move from "beat" policing to fewer police stations, less "on the beat" police and more car based units etc to "better" respond to serious crime. We are able to see the impact now - there's studies and areas where police stations were closed have seen disproportionately large increases in crime, particularly the low-level stuff. Those closures were, inevitbaly, primarily in poorer areas. And increasingly those low-level crimes are not reported and if they are not investigated or even attended by the police - they'll give you the crime number so you can claim on the insurance (basically privatising things) and in some areas there are now private investigation firms you can hire to take over instead (this is particularly a thing with bike theft). But on the terms of what it was trying to do, it succeeded - serious crime is down. But trust is down significantly, crimes are not being reported and the low-level crimes that contribute to a feeling of insecurity like shoplifting are at record levels.

There's been loads of pieces recently trying to explain that serious crimes are down but people's perceptions are that crime is up and it seems fairly straightforward to me. The sort of ambient crimes you see in your community or might experience (shop-lifting, bike theft, mobile phone theft by people on mopeds) etc are up by a lot.

But also a lot of this crime is committed by relatively few repeat offenders. There was an area in London that saw a 90% decline in bike theft following the arrest of 5 individuals. It wasn't opportunistic crimes of need, but organised. We see the same in Europe with phone theft (again 40% of phone theft in all of Europe is in London) - where phones are stolen and then very quickly moved into organised networks of the sort which used to only exist for car theft. I believe there's evidence of similar links with shoplifting.

[Josquius]

The correlation between crime and poverty is well observed.

And no, this isn't just some stealing bread to feed your family stuff. Poverty tends to create a variety of other issues which heavily lead to crime.
Nihilism is a huge one.
Vandalism is a fundamentally pointless crime. Yet it's common especially in poor areas.
Maybe out of some sort of psychological "this is the only way I can prove to the world I existed" sort of thing.

I do think there's a good theory in the rise of Nihilism, lack of agency, etc... In anglo countries and it's correlation with shit.

[Tonitrus]

I think it is more to do with policing than punishment. Certainly in the UK there was a move from "beat" policing to fewer police stations, less "on the beat" police and more car based units etc to "better" respond to serious crime. We are able to see the impact now - there's studies and areas where police stations were closed have seen disproportionately large increases in crime, particularly the low-level stuff. Those closures were, inevitbaly, primarily in poorer areas.

I've wondered if a Japanese-style "Kōban" set up might be effective in larger cities...but nowadays, I suspect many American police would complain about those making them "easy targets".  And with the US urban/suburban set-up, it would likely have to be something a bit more physically robust and more than just a "police box" (e.g. have an attached police car/parking, etc.)

And I think there is some merit to the 'ol "broken windows" theory...but it often gets twisted up with the flawed "stop and frisk" methods.

Overall, the us-against-them thinking that many police agencies have, and the move to an impersonal, vehicle-patrol-only style I think only aggravates that.  Along with "mil-spec"-ing the police...but this and other things could easily send me on a long rabbit-hole rant.

[Josquius]

Koban are usually pretty normal office buildings. As solid as any other Japanese building (not very).
It's only really in major areas of big cities that they're more like Dr who police boxes.

Related not too long ago I learned police houses used to be a thing in the UK. With attached police offices.
It made me sad this isn't a thing any more as community policing does seem a great way to go - though yes, opens a door for corruption

[Sheilbh]

Agree with all that - and I think the other side of "broken windows" is the state capacity piece of maintaining and enforcing standards in the public realm. Public bins, fly-tipping, benches (I find the anti-homeless benches morally repugnant, but also there should generally be more benches), planting - but also a particular bugbear of mine which is outsourced utilities work where you'll have pavements torn up at different points by different utility companies and then just tarmaced over like this:


There should be mandatory design codes and if you need to dig it up that's fine but you need to return it to what it was before. As I say I think low-level crime is a part of this but it is a wider degradation of the public realm/the social which I think is where we are as a society of private opulence and public squalor.

Also I take the point on poverty but I think it does also go the other way. The areas that are most affected by crime are poor - and if you've spent any time in those communities they are not particularly sympathetic

[Razgovory]

I think the assumption that "poverty leads to crime", needs to be questioned more.  A great deal of crime has no obvious economic benefit.  On the the other hand, being a criminal is a one way ticket to poverty.

Well another issue is that when the rich do crimes, they aren't crimes.

When rich people commit murders, it still makes the news.  It's not obvious why a person with less money in their bank account is more likely to kill their wife.

So wait...you are saying that there is a correlation that having less money makes one more likely to commit crimes while at the same time saying that we should challenge the notion that having less money makes one more likely to commit crimes? Or are you saying it's not true?

You are all over the place here.

There is a correlation between poverty and crime, but it is not necessarily a direct "I have no money so I must crime to survive".  To put it bluntly, a distrust and often contempt of the law tends to result in both poverty and a criminal record.

[Josquius]

Yes. The state of pavements annoys me to no end.
I thought there was something in the works about this crappy repair job stuff.... Was gove involved I seem to remember?
When you're able bodied it's not something you really notice but getting a pushchair around you really do feel it.
The difference between typical paths in Britain and other western European counties is just a joke.
Though I will note you see quite a night and day difference with fancier parts of town.

Incidentally I remember when I was in colombia and Colombians asked me what I thought of it this was the main thing that came to mind for me.
Inside a shop or the university or wherever.... Very nice. Could well be Spain. Perfectly fine.
But then step outside and it's quite a mess with the paths and roads just an absolute disgrace.
I can really see that as the path we are heading down....


Oh. Though in the UK at least I do know there's quite the campaign against pavement parking kicking up. As well as utilities work this is another big part of the state of the paths.


.... And wow is this nothing to do with the topic.

[Sheilbh]

Honestly you don't see any difference in London - that photo's Oxford Street (admittedly not a cornucopia of delights but still, central). But it's similar in Soho or Chelsea or anywhere else I've been.

I think it's outsourcing and our general lack of design codes while Europe tends to be quite strict on that I think. But I think it is all part of a wider process - which includes low level crime - of making the public sphere hostile for people, which, I think, forecloses any possibility of social politics.

Edit: On Europe I mainly disagree but it slightly depends where. I went to Germany 3 times last year to different areas and will be going back next month. I hadn't been in years and I was genuinely shocked at how rundown everything seemed. In terms of street furniture, trains, public transport in cities - but also just things like the number of people on the streets who seemed to be going through some sort of visible crisis. I would say where I was (mainly Frankfurt and Berlin) were worse than the areas of London or Liverpool that I know. It was really surprising because not how I remember Germany but also not what I expected in comparison with, say, Poland or France.

[Admiral Yi]

Why not both? Inequalities lead to petty crime and the risk of prison sentences dampens that impulse somewhat. Remove the risk and it comes to the surface. I think decriminalizing petty crime is dumb and socially ruinous too, but that doesn't address the underlying cause. You're advocating for putting masking tape over the cracks in the foundation and exclaiming "all fixed!"

Does inequality per se lead to crime?  I have a fraction of Elon Musk's wealth and I feel no urge to steal.  The Gulf states are some of the most unequal places in the world and they have very low crime.

Poverty, as distinct from inequality, is a more intuitive driver of crime, but even then if you look at the past, such as the Great Depression, many people were abysmally poor but I don't believe crime was particularly high.

[Valmy]

Does inequality per se lead to crime?  I have a fraction of Elon Musk's wealth and I feel no urge to steal.  The Gulf states are some of the most unequal places in the world and they have very low crime.

Poverty, as distinct from inequality, is a more intuitive driver of crime, but even then if you look at the past, such as the Great Depression, many people were abysmally poor but I don't believe crime was particularly high.

Are there no data or studies on this topic at all so we have to rely on how you personally might feel and our intuition?

[Admiral Yi]

Are there no data or studies on this topic at all so we have to rely on how you personally might feel and our intuition?

I give up, are there?

[grumbler]

Democrats govern entire states, why is inequality worse in those states?  Why are we failing?

What makes you think that inequality is worse in Democrat-governed states?

[Syt]

This site has Gini index peer state 2006 - 2022:

https://ssti.org/blog/useful-stats-income-inequality-across-states








And Gini by country as per OECD for comparison:



EDIT: cut off Costa Rica by accident.

EDIT 2: global comparison: