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2024 US Presidential Elections Megathread

Started by Syt, May 25, 2023, 02:23:01 AM

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Grey Fox

Quote from: Barrister on May 15, 2024, 03:21:26 PM
Quote from: Sophie Scholl on May 15, 2024, 02:27:00 PMIsn't one of the big issues with modern polling that it is conducted via landlines only which tends to skew toward older and rural folks with those demographics being much redder than the voting population as a whole?

No.

There are faults with polling, but they have not relied on landlines only for years and years.

Proof: I am somehow on a list of people that answers pollsters, so I get calls pretty regularly.  A few years ago we were the Canadian equivalent of Nielson family that tracked our TV viewership.

Anyways - the fact I am regularly called by pollsters, as a middle-aged, middle-class cis-hetero white guy, might reflect a certain bias.

But they only ever call my cell phone.

I'm on a list too, I signed up for it. I've never had a land line of my own.

I'm also a middle-aged middle-class cis-hetero white guy and yet our politics are nothing alike.
Colonel Caliga is Awesome.

Tonitrus

Quote from: Jacob on May 15, 2024, 03:02:02 PMBiden v Trump debates reportedly planned on Jun 27 and Sep 10.

And the rules the Biden team insisted on seem to be aimed at neutering Trump's interruptive/off-the-cuff style...e.g. turning off the opposing microphone when it is not their turn...but I am sure nothing will stop Trump from shouting/haranguing without said microphone.

crazy canuck

Quote from: Grey Fox on May 15, 2024, 07:13:35 PM
Quote from: Barrister on May 15, 2024, 03:21:26 PM
Quote from: Sophie Scholl on May 15, 2024, 02:27:00 PMIsn't one of the big issues with modern polling that it is conducted via landlines only which tends to skew toward older and rural folks with those demographics being much redder than the voting population as a whole?

No.

There are faults with polling, but they have not relied on landlines only for years and years.

Proof: I am somehow on a list of people that answers pollsters, so I get calls pretty regularly.  A few years ago we were the Canadian equivalent of Nielson family that tracked our TV viewership.

Anyways - the fact I am regularly called by pollsters, as a middle-aged, middle-class cis-hetero white guy, might reflect a certain bias.

But they only ever call my cell phone.

I'm on a list too, I signed up for it. I've never had a land line of my own.

I'm also a middle-aged middle-class cis-hetero white guy and yet our politics are nothing alike.

But Sophie's point is a good one, pollsters used to be able to get more randomized samples by using phone books, now people have to opt in in some way so there is more is a selection bias.

Josquius

Quote from: crazy canuck on May 16, 2024, 02:06:08 AM
Quote from: Grey Fox on May 15, 2024, 07:13:35 PM
Quote from: Barrister on May 15, 2024, 03:21:26 PM
Quote from: Sophie Scholl on May 15, 2024, 02:27:00 PMIsn't one of the big issues with modern polling that it is conducted via landlines only which tends to skew toward older and rural folks with those demographics being much redder than the voting population as a whole?

No.

There are faults with polling, but they have not relied on landlines only for years and years.

Proof: I am somehow on a list of people that answers pollsters, so I get calls pretty regularly.  A few years ago we were the Canadian equivalent of Nielson family that tracked our TV viewership.

Anyways - the fact I am regularly called by pollsters, as a middle-aged, middle-class cis-hetero white guy, might reflect a certain bias.

But they only ever call my cell phone.

I'm on a list too, I signed up for it. I've never had a land line of my own.

I'm also a middle-aged middle-class cis-hetero white guy and yet our politics are nothing alike.

But Sophie's point is a good one, pollsters used to be able to get more randomized samples by using phone books, now people have to opt in in some way so there is more is a selection bias.

There is, and it is a potential problem.
But with top scale stuff they usually have a decent enough understanding of that to control for it. They understand based on someone's criteria precisely how likely they are to reply so will reach out to more busy 30-somethings than is statistically necessary to make sure they cover that group and don't just get unemployed groups.

Though I do get vibes with this political stuff in particular the selection bias is a very active one of people consciously seeking out these polls to try and play a role in shifting the discourse.

Worth remembering on polls as much as they're criticised for always being wrong et al- Trump's win was well within the margin of error.
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crazy canuck

"They" don't actually do a good job of it.

QuoteDoes this mean that polls just aren't accurate? Not always, but they can present a different picture than reality. This is largely because "the real margin of error is often about double the one reported," Pew wrote. Many polls typically have a margin of error less than 3%, which "leads people to think that polls are more precise than they really are," the outlet added. But this margin "addresses only one source of potential error: the fact that random samples are likely to differ a little from the population just by chance."


There are at least three other identifiable sources of data errors that can come from poll taking, Pew added, but most polls don't calculate these metrics into their margins of error. The differing approaches in how polls are taken can also have "consequences for data quality, as well as accuracy in elections," Pew added. As a result, a 2016 study from The New York Times showed, the actual margin of error in most historical polls is closer to 6% or 7%, not 3%. This represents an error range of 12 to 14 data points, the Times said.

https://theweek.com/politics/2024-election-polls-accuracy


The Brain

I'm not convinced Swedish youtubers are an authority.
Women want me. Men want to be with me.

Admiral Yi


Trump video references a unified Reich.

Savonarola

From Majorie Taylor Greene's X

QuoteI made sure that he knew.

The Biden DOJ and FBI were planning to assassinate Pres Trump and gave the green light.

Does everyone get it yet???!!!!

What are Republicans going to do about it?

I tried to oust our Speaker who funded Biden's DOJ AND FBI, but Democrats stopped it.

Tragically our deep state is woefully incompetent. :(
In Italy, for thirty years under the Borgias, they had warfare, terror, murder and bloodshed, but they produced Michelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci and the Renaissance. In Switzerland, they had brotherly love, they had five hundred years of democracy and peace—and what did that produce? The cuckoo clock

Solmyr

Wait, I thought the President had the right to order assassination of his political opponents and it wouldn't be illegal unless he was impeached. Have Trump's lawyers lied to us?

grumbler

Quote from: Savonarola on May 23, 2024, 04:25:14 PMFrom Majorie Taylor Greene's X

QuoteI made sure that he knew.

The Biden DOJ and FBI were planning to assassinate Pres Trump and gave the green light.

Does everyone get it yet???!!!!

What are Republicans going to do about it?

I tried to oust our Speaker who funded Biden's DOJ AND FBI, but Democrats stopped it.

Tragically our deep state is woefully incompetent. :(

Yeah, they planned the assassination for a time and place where they knew Trump would not be. :(

Better luck next time!
The future is all around us, waiting, in moments of transition, to be born in moments of revelation. No one knows the shape of that future or where it will take us. We know only that it is always born in pain.   -G'Kar

Bayraktar!

Syt

I am, somehow, less interested in the weight and convolutions of Einstein's brain than in the near certainty that people of equal talent have lived and died in cotton fields and sweatshops.
—Stephen Jay Gould

Proud owner of 42 Zoupa Points.

grumbler

That's OvB's kind of guy!  Never say anything honesty if you can lie.
The future is all around us, waiting, in moments of transition, to be born in moments of revelation. No one knows the shape of that future or where it will take us. We know only that it is always born in pain.   -G'Kar

Bayraktar!

Gups


The Minsky Moment

Alvin Bragg shows how it's done.  Try your case in Court not on the cable news. DA Willis please take note.
The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.
--Joan Robinson