2024 US Presidential Elections Megathread

[Barrister]

I mean he won so I guess I cannot disagree with anything said about why he won.

I saw lots of anti-immigrant stuff. Not a ton on anger at the stagnation of wages.

Yeah - I really think Reich's post is one of those posts (like Bernie) who blames the Democrats election defeat on their own personal beliefs, and not on any actual evidence.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah - I really think Reich's post is one of those posts (like Bernie) who blames the Democrats election defeat on their own personal beliefs, and not on any actual evidence.

In the case of Bernie - I'd point out that a pollster published a piece I think in the Guardian or NYT about how he was tracking opinion in Pennsylvania and the "threat to democracy"/"fascism" line of attack in the last third of the campaign was not cutting through with working class voters at all.

I think he's since said that after printing that piece, Bernie called him and had a very detailed call about what he was seeing in Pennsylvania from polling.

Obviously everyone's conclusions are (shockingly!) their priors (and I'm as bad as anyone).

[Barrister]

Yeah - I really think Reich's post is one of those posts (like Bernie) who blames the Democrats election defeat on their own personal beliefs, and not on any actual evidence.

In the case of Bernie - I'd point out that a pollster published a piece I think in the Guardian or NYT about how he was tracking opinion in Pennsylvania and the "threat to democracy"/"fascism" line of attack in the last third of the campaign was not cutting through with working class voters at all.

I think he's since said that after printing that piece, Bernie called him and had a very detailed call about what he was seeing in Pennsylvania from polling.

Obviously everyone's conclusions are (shockingly!) their priors (and I'm as bad as anyone).

I think (hope) that everyone knew the "threat to democracy" line would be effective amongst a small slice of the electorate that might otherwise vote GOP, but was never going to be a grand slam home run message.

[crazy canuck]

I mean he won so I guess I cannot disagree with anything said about why he won.

I saw lots of anti-immigrant stuff. Not a ton on anger at the stagnation of wages.

The piece I posted says that the economy was the issue.  The bit you are talking about is an inference that the reason the economy was a big issue, despite the economy improving, and inflation being tamed, is that wages have not kept pace with the cost of living.  The reason for that of course is wages have stagnated.

[Sheilbh]

From what I've heard from reporters covering the campaign, that was the focus of the last third of the campaign (which is partly what gave me 2016 vibes). That was the closing message.

Other interesting comment about that pollster was that apparently the "don't go back" line really didn't work as a message because lots of voters felt like they were doing pretty well in 2016-20, while 2020-24 was tough. It may seem unfair but I think there's a "rally round the flag"/exceptional circumstances degree of forgiveness from voters for the immediate response to covid, but they expect a lot of governments in the aftermath (I think a bit like a natural disaster).

I think aside from incumbency in general or at this moment it gets a real challenge for Harris with only three months to campaign (but for all VPs running) of how to do continuity and change. I think it's one of the most difficult messages to communicate successfully in politics - and I do have a lot of sympathy for Harris on this (even if I think some form of selection process would have been a better option) because she only had three months to set up that message (and also to experiment and work out what line works).