2024 US Presidential Elections Megathread

[Sheilbh]

I think Vance won the debate by normalizing himself, which is unfortunate.

Yeah I think that might be. It's the risk of an attack line like "weird" it doesn't take much to nullify it (because, ultimately, you just need to appear not weird for a bit) and Vance "normalising" himself may well help do this.

I also saw a lot of very confident expectations online from people on the left about Walz. I think possible overconfidence from a stump speech and a few clips online.

It is still very close as Valmy says. Which is terrifying.

[Valmy]

The tendency of some Democrat partisans online to overconfidence is just cope imo. They are hoping they can confidently state their preferred outcome into existence.

[DGuller]

I think there is a tendency in general to so beat down the opponents that you can't help but get high on your own supply, to great detriment.  I think it played out with Ukraine, who have mocked the Russian army so much that they blundered into a a telegraphed counteroffensive with no air power.

[Valmy]

Theoretically if the average polls work out exactly as they currently stand on 538, Kamala will win with 276 Electoral Votes with a 2.7% margin in the popular vote. But if it even goes a little bit in Trump's direction in even one of those states, except Nevada, then he will win.

[Valmy]

In the Senate it is just as dire. We need things to go chalk according to the current polls, which includes a win in Ohio of all places, plus one upset someplace just to "only" lose one seat and thus be able to do things like make Presidential appointments.

If the Republicans win the Senate they can basically make the country ungovernable by just grinding everything to a halt and refusing to confirm anything.

I like our chances of retaking the House so there is that as the Dems lead the Republicans by 2.3% on a generic House ballot, but there is a lot of gerrymandering that must be overcome.

The whole thing just looks very bleak. But at least there exists a reasonably possible version of reality where the Democrats win the Presidency, Senate, and House. But it could very easily go the other way.

[viper37]

I've read that 538 isn't that accurate since Nate Silver sold his site.

Trump got a couple good polls from Quinnipiac, but Harris put up some strong numbers in Pennsylvania earlier today. Overall the model is holding steady. Harris now leads by 3.4 points in our national polling average — up from 3.2 points yesterday. But her chance of winning the Electoral College is still hovering right around 55%.



https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

[Josquius]

The worrying thing with vance is the odds of him being president within the next few years  are high - I can't see trump living out a term.