2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD

[Admiral Yi]

The GOP needs to ask itself what the point of having people that see government dysfunction as a feature, not a bug as representatives is. They might have the (R) behind their name, but they do not actually further the goals of the larger Republican party. Maybe next time they should send sane people in primaries against these clowns and not let them run on the Republican ticket.

That's the line I've been pushing.  Republican voters have been confronted with a stark choice.  This is a net positive for this country.  This is part of the process of dispelling the demon of Trumpism.

[Syt]

The GOP needs to ask itself what the point of having people that see government dysfunction as a feature, not a bug as representatives is. They might have the (R) behind their name, but they do not actually further the goals of the larger Republican party. Maybe next time they should send sane people in primaries against these clowns and not let them run on the Republican ticket.

That's the line I've been pushing.  Republican voters have been confronted with a stark choice.  This is a net positive for this country.  This is part of the process of dispelling the demon of Trumpism.

That assumes that voters will remember by the time the next election comes around.

[Admiral Yi]

That assumes that voters will remember by the time the next election comes around.

I say the trend line is gradual but positive.  A couple months ago 60% of Republican voters said they thought the election was stolen.  Now they're a 20 member rump of Congress.

[HisMajestyBOB]

[mongers]

:heh:

I bet there's some truth to the "take your daughter to Mark Gaetz office day"

[viper37]

The scuttlebutt is McCarthy was closing in on a deal that would reduce the number of objectors down to less than 10...which still is not low enough. We also are not sure of the reality of this deal or if it's just wishful thinking by his camp. I believe the hope is if they were able to halve the objectors, you can then lean on a few specific ones to try and work out personal arrangements...somehow get down to only 4 objectors, maybe get some of them to agree to vote "Present" instead of for a different person etc.

It's unclear if there is ultimately going to be enough movement for McCarthy to get in, but I think we'll have at least a few more days of McCarthy trying before we see any major movement to a different candidate by the caucus.

Can the Republicans hold the vote to eject the protestors from their party if it keeps going?

  What would ejecting them from their party solve? They'd still be in Congress.

Ah, I forgot it's not a simple party vote to elect their representative.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I think on a meta level there are the smallest bits of evidence of the GOP as a collective realizing the extreme obstructionists really advance no meaningful...anything. They almost to a one are just grandstanders looking to pump Fox News standings. It's interesting how you can distinguish--MTG and Jim Jordan are grandstanding far rightists, but are both largely willing to play within the party system to keep congress working. A party can work with that, it's hard to work with people that literally think their job is to just burn the building down to get attention on a cable news network and social media.

Now what can they do about it? That's hard. One of the things the obstructors are demanding is leadership stop funding primary challengers to people like them, which will make it harder to unseat them. One of the core reasons the GOP declined so tremendously in quality is just the nature of the GOP primary electorate--it is a small subset of the GOP itself, and it is insanely more extremist than the large body of GOP voters. That's not an easy problem to solve, but if it is solveable recognizing that it is creating problematic outcomes is the first step. Some of us realized this was a problem 12-13 years ago when we were still in the GOP and seeing high quality GOP candidates unseated by genuinely crazy / terrible people in primaries, but at the time no one of any importance in the party really seemed concerned about it. I think the concern is now there, now how do they fix it? That's obviously a complex question.

Some of the obstructors are on incredibly shaky grounds--Boebert just barely won her general election for example, and several other obstructors are from districts that could be competitive in some scenarios.

[Barrister]

Yeah, it's kind of remarkable that MTG has been a "voice of reason" in this whole story.

[Maladict]

Gaetz seems to be overplaying his hand.

[Syt]

It's today two years since the Capitol Riot, btw.

[Zanza]

McCarthy now gaining ground, but still not enough...

[OttoVonBismarck]

Andy Biggs
Lauren Boebert
Eli Crane
Matt Gaetz
Bob Good
Andy Harris
Matt Rosendale

he needs to flip 3 of these

[OttoVonBismarck]

Harris just flipped so he now only needs to flip 2 more.

Boebert and Gaetz have seemed to stake their personal credibility (for whatever little that means) on having "no deal" with Kevin no matter what. Bob Good from repeated reporting has apparently an extreme personal hatred of McCarthy. That's 3 of the 6 that are probably immovable.

So it'll be down to: Biggs, Crane, Rosendale 2 of them need to be movable or McCarthy is in trouble. Crane is basically an unknown, he's far right, brand new to Congress and doesn't have much of a profile. Biggs was the ringleader of the opposition, but he has at least "played ball" with leadership in past times, so he might be someone who can be dealt with.

Rosendale seems decently dug in--but promisingly for McCarthy he has published op-eds and such outlying specific things he would like to see McCarthy reform. That's at least something to work with, unlike Gaetz/Boebert who say there is no deal that can be made.

[Valmy]

6 votes for Jordan. McCarthy can now get no more than 216.

But I think so long as he gets 213 or more the Republicans might be able to get McCarthy in on a plurality.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I believe the GOP only has 219 members present today, 3 are out for personal matters (one is a surgery, the others have some obligations that I guess trump participating in Congress.) The Democrats only have 211 because they have 1 member out today as well. With 6 defectors voting for Jordan that would put McCarthy at 213 and Jeffries at 211, so it would technically work if they go plurality, but it would require a rules change.