2022 Midterm Election MEGATHREAD

[grumbler]

Zoupa and Berkut, you guys will be much happier in 2025 when Manchin is out of the Senate and you really never have to hear of him, and the seat is held by some random republican that just votes his party line.

I am sure that they are happy that you can tell them how they feel.  How else could they know?

[alfred russel]

Zoupa and Berkut, you guys will be much happier in 2025 when Manchin is out of the Senate and you really never have to hear of him, and the seat is held by some random republican that just votes his party line.

I am sure that they are happy that you can tell them how they feel.  How else could they know?

I don't think they are happy for me telling them anything, because I don't think they like me.

[grumbler]

Zoupa and Berkut, you guys will be much happier in 2025 when Manchin is out of the Senate and you really never have to hear of him, and the seat is held by some random republican that just votes his party line.

I am sure that they are happy that you can tell them how they feel.  How else could they know?

I don't think they are happy for me telling them anything, because I don't think they like me.

They can't handle the trooth.

[OttoVonBismarck]

There are 95000 votes left to count in Nevada, all from the two more populous counties (Where Reno and Vegas are located). If the Dem gets 60% of those votes, she wins by about 10k votes.

Most of the deep wonk analysts are pretty firm on Laxalt (R) losing in Nevada, not like 95% firm but 70%+.

[Sheilbh]

Via Philip Cowley - this is just wild from a British perspective:
https://twitter.com/Craigipedia/status/1590563176495853568?s=20&t=tOFIZBtelk4FWuK5rYTuDA

In the UK all the parties engage in massive expectations management around elections where they play down their own chances and try to increase the pressure on their opponents. It's just crazy to see politicians and consultants saying "yeah it's going to be a landslide!"

[OttoVonBismarck]

I think there is decent evidence claims of election theft by Republicans has at least a mildly depressing effect on Republican turnout, with that in mind I kind of hope they keep doing it.

[Berkut]

There are 95000 votes left to count in Nevada, all from the two more populous counties (Where Reno and Vegas are located). If the Dem gets 60% of those votes, she wins by about 10k votes.

Most of the deep wonk analysts are pretty firm on Laxalt (R) losing in Nevada, not like 95% firm but 70%+.

They've obviously been following my blog.

[Habbaku]

The one where you think Mark Kelly is a woman?

[Sheilbh]

I think there is decent evidence claims of election theft by Republicans has at least a mildly depressing effect on Republican turnout, with that in mind I kind of hope they keep doing it.

I also wonder if the specific claims hurt the Republicans. It might be totally different in the US - but looking at UK stats on postal voting the "red wall" areas that are behind recent Tory victories are far more likely to use postal voting, while in-person voting is far bigger in liberal, metropolitan urban areas.

I have no evidence for this but my instinct would be that older voters are probably one of the demographics most likely to use early or mail voting - and they are a core part of the GOP base. It feels like the specific election theft around early and mail voting may have hurt.

[OttoVonBismarck]

In many states, prior to covid, postal voting leaned Republican, in some states substantially so. There was an interview with a top Republican organizer in Florida who had been building out Florida's mail voter system since the late 1980s. It had largely developed into a very effective mail voting system that had a decent pro-R partisan lean. The reasons kind of follow what you think--Republican voters tend to be older and more rural, two things that can make it harder to get to the polls.

When covid hit and we had a few special elections, Trump observed that because many Republicans did not believe covid was real, and Democrats largely took it seriously, a disproportionate surge of Democrats were choosing to vote via mail. He extrapolated that mail voting was a serious risk to his reelection and started to demonize it. It is very likely he had immature and stupid response to a very limited set of data, and he probably undermined his very own reelection by attacking mail voting.

The problem with the attacks are--say you successfully turn off an elderly rural voter to mail voting, one who previously mail voted regularly. Now he plans to vote on e-day, which is fine, but in terms of odds, he is more likely to have something happen to him on e-day that may interrupt his plans. Maybe he is sick that day, maybe he has an important doctor's appointment, maybe a family member he relies on to drive him around has to cancel last minute. There is no fixing it if you've waited until e-day.

The effect is likely relatively small, the elderly are a high voter participation group in any case, but they are a big voting block and even on the margins with as close as many of our elections have been in the electoral college, it could make a difference.

[garbon]

Via Philip Cowley - this is just wild from a British perspective:
https://twitter.com/Craigipedia/status/1590563176495853568?s=20&t=tOFIZBtelk4FWuK5rYTuDA

In the UK all the parties engage in massive expectations management around elections where they play down their own chances and try to increase the pressure on their opponents. It's just crazy to see politicians and consultants saying "yeah it's going to be a landslide!"

Interesting idea to compare one's hypothetical victory to a torrent of blood and a civilization ending disaster.

[Zanza]

Just read that the 89 year old Chuck Grassley was re-elected for another six years as US senator. Been in office since 1981 and before that served in Iowas state legislature since 1958.

I think it is absurd to have people that age in any political office. The party internal selection mechanisms do not seem to work well 

[PJL]

Just read that the 89 year old Chuck Grassley was re-elected for another six years as US senator. Been in office since 1981 and before that served in Iowas state legislature since 1958.

I think it is absurd to have people that age in any political office. The party internal selection mechanisms do not seem to work well 

Maybe you should also tell Wolfgang Schäuble & the CDU that as well. He's been a member of the Bundestag
for Offenburg since 1972.

[Zanza]

Just read that the 89 year old Chuck Grassley was re-elected for another six years as US senator. Been in office since 1981 and before that served in Iowas state legislature since 1958.

I think it is absurd to have people that age in any political office. The party internal selection mechanisms do not seem to work well 

Maybe you should also tell Wolfgang Schäuble & the CDU that as well. He's been a member of the Bundestag
for Offenburg since 1972.

Definitely. He should have retired years ago.

[Habbaku]

Imagine having such a sad personal life that you want to keep working in a dreadful job like the US Senate until you're 95.