German Federal Election 2021 - Who will succeed Angela Merkel?

[Habbaku]

  I'm actually already, unfortunately, familiar with the story thanks to Economist reporting last year. Thanks, though.

[Zanza]

I voted today! 

[Josquius]

I voted today! 

Afd?

[Zanza]

No

[Sheilbh]

That's encouraging I guess.. Still, more young ignorant cunts than there should be. Thurungia in particular seems worm brained. How on earth are afd on top...

The colours suck on that chart.

Not sure it's hugely encouraging

I think there's even more extreme polling in France - where young people are basically most likely to support Le Pen/RN or Melenchon/the far left

[Syt]

If you compare with you will see that nowhere in the West the AfD would get over 10% among under 18s.

[Sheilbh]

Is there any polling on the Berlin housing referendum?

[Duque de Bragança]

That's encouraging I guess.. Still, more young ignorant cunts than there should be. Thurungia in particular seems worm brained. How on earth are afd on top...

The colours suck on that chart.

Not sure it's hugely encouraging

I think there's even more extreme polling in France - where young people are basically most likely to support Le Pen/RN or Melenchon/the far left

Plus Zemmour. As for Mélenchon, islamo-leftist is more accurate than far-left.

[Josquius]

That's encouraging I guess.. Still, more young ignorant cunts than there should be. Thurungia in particular seems worm brained. How on earth are afd on top...

The colours suck on that chart.

Not sure it's hugely encouraging

I think there's even more extreme polling in France - where young people are basically most likely to support Le Pen/RN or Melenchon/the far left

I'm just counting a quarter are nazis.
Given under 18s tend towards extremes and the radicalisation of kids is a big growing problem its good that they remain firmly in the minority. With time and reality many of them should chill.

[Syt]

Most pressing problems in the eyes of German population:



From top to bottom:
- Environment and Climate
- Corona
- Foreigners & Refugees
- Social inequality
- Pensions

I don't feel this hierarchy of topics was particularly well represented in the campaign (or its media coverage and TV debates).

[Zanza]

That's probably a question with predefined answers. If you ask people openly, the most pressing issues are typically rent, school/kindergarten and traffic/public transport. Daily problems.

[Syt]

That's fair.

Meanwhile:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/german-millionaires-rush-assets-switzerland-ahead-election-2021-09-24/

German millionaires rush assets to Switzerland ahead of election

ZURICH, Sept 24 (Reuters) - A potential lurch to the left in Germany's election on Sunday is scaring millionaires into moving assets into Switzerland, bankers and tax lawyers say.

If the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD), hard-left Linke and environmentalist Greens come to power, the reintroduction of a wealth tax and a tightening of inheritance tax could be on the political agenda.

"For the super-rich, this is red hot," said a German-based tax lawyer with extensive Swiss operations. "Entrepreneurial families are highly alarmed."

The move shows how many rich people still see Switzerland as an attractive place to park wealth, despite its efforts to abolish its image as a billionaires' safe haven.

No country has more offshore assets than Switzerland and inflows accelerated in 2020, to the benefit of big banks such as UBS (UBSG.S), Credit Suisse (CSGN.S) and Julius Baer (BAER.S). Geopolitical tensions and fears of the COVID-19 pandemic's economic fallout made Switzerland's political stability attractive.

Bank for International Settlements data show deposits of German households and companies at banks in Switzerland climbed almost $5 billion to $37.5 billion in the first quarter of 2021, and this does not include shares, bonds or financial products.

More recent figures are not available, but insiders say the inflows have continued. "I have booked an above-average amount of new money as in the past three months," said a veteran client adviser at a large Swiss bank who deals mainly with Germans.

"Many wealthy people, especially entrepreneurs, fear that there will be a lurch to the left in Germany - no matter how the elections turn out," says Florian Dürselen, head of Europe at wealth manager LGT Switzerland.

One top Swiss banker said: "I know a number of German entrepreneurs who want to have a foothold outside Germany if things get too red (leftist) there."

TAX ON ASSETS

A poll on Thursday showed the SPD, on 25%, leading outgoing Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives by four points.

The SPD wants to reintroduce a wealth tax and increase inheritance tax, while the Greens - a likely potential coalition partner - plan to tax fortunes more heavily. Although both envision raising income tax for top earners, a tax on assets would raise much more money, the tax lawyer said.

He was seeing increased demand for advice from clients, he said, noting some entrepreneurs had sought to protect themselves by making new investments through a company in Switzerland or transferring assets to a foundation in Liechtenstein.

Simply transferring cash to a Swiss bank account, on the other hand, no longer helps. Under immense international pressure, the Swiss now share such account data with tax authorities in clients' home countries.

"Switzerland as a financial centre is characterized by stability, legal security and a high level of financial competence. However, it does not offer any protection against tax evasion," said a spokesperson for the State Secretariat for International Financial Matters (SIF).

LGT's Dürselen said he recently spoke with a German entrepreneur who feared Germany could soon tax foreign assets or transactions harshly, which fostered the view of Switzerland as a safe haven for capital.

"Personally, I assume that considerable assets will continue to be moved to Switzerland," he said.

One local politician said dozens of wealthy German entrepreneurs have inquired in recent months about residing in one of the low-tax suburbs along Lake Zurich.

[Sheilbh]

Given how the campaign's gone it's starting to feel like an election the CDU has to lose - but from the Economist widget and things like that it doesn't seem implausible that they might actually win.

I was never a massive fan of the Thatcher = Merkel thing in the early days of her leadership (a sign of the paucity of imagination of Anglo-American hacks, and the paucity of female leaders) but you sort of wonder if Laschet is a bit of a Major figure. Major was a very effective campaigner in 92 - but then had to deal with Black Wednesday and five years of mounting sleaze scandals plus constant rows with his backbenchers given the small majority. Looking back I think most Tories think it would've been better if they'd lost in 92 and similarly it feels like if Laschet were to win accidentally it wouldn't be a happy term for the CDU (and especially CSU). Maybe it'd be fine

[Zanza]

Laschet is a terrible campaigner though and I doubt the Conservatives could get more sleazy than in the last term (masks, Azerbaijan  Amthor).

[Sheilbh]

Also they just feel tired - from here all I've seen is red-bashing and it feels like they could do with a period out of office to re-fresh, look at some fresh talent etc.