Portuguese Presidential Elections 2021

[Sheilbh]

Ok, I see what you mean. Tbf, I don't think that any Green party will end up overtaking any SocDem, I'm not even aware of any country in which this is a real possibility (AFAIK it has only happened in some regional elections in Germany).

Maybe not in Parliament but I could see Jadot beating the PS in the next French elections (but it'll still probably be Macron-Le Pen). I think they're polling ahead of the SPD at the minute in Germany. They've already overtaken the Dutch Labour Party and Socialist Party. Even where they're not nationally there is that young educated urban vote factor and they're splintering the traditional SocDem base - generally.

It's an interesting and I think important trend.

Re. why Green parties are not strong here, the situation in Spain was similar to the one in Portugal described by Duque. When Green parties started appearing in Europe in the 80s, the Spanish branch was highly regionalized and didn't really get any results, which promted splinter parties popping up around the country and its main party being swallowed by Izquierda Unida, which is basically a coalition of the communist party with many other smaller parties, which completely blocked its growth and further development, "Green" was basically just another of the many labels that IU attached to itself. More recently a new green party was created in 2011, with quite more support than usual, and ended up getting a few MPs in different coalitions (initially with Podemos, afterwards with a splinter), but it remains very institutionally weak and didn't get any MPs in the latest elections.

Yeah I think the regionalist side of fragmentation in Spain must be a huge part of it, but I wonder if there's also something that PSOE did differently - there aren't many areas of Europe with SocDem governments, they're like the dinosaurs, and I hope it wasn't just luck/local conditions making it difficult for other parties to rise.

[Sheilbh]

No idea about Swiss politics, had to take a look at wiki. It seems that the ones they overtook were the Christian Democrats rather than the Social Democrats, though. There seems to be a second smaller Green party of a liberal bent with not insignificant representation, though. That (center-right greens) is a bit of a divergence with other countries in which green politics seem entrenched as part of left wing politics.

Except Germany - I think there's lots of talk of a Black-Green coalition and there's really interesting debates within the Greens in Germany on foreign policy (where they increasingly appear to be the only party not bought by an authoritarian state).

[The Larch]

No idea about Swiss politics, had to take a look at wiki. It seems that the ones they overtook were the Christian Democrats rather than the Social Democrats, though. There seems to be a second smaller Green party of a liberal bent with not insignificant representation, though. That (center-right greens) is a bit of a divergence with other countries in which green politics seem entrenched as part of left wing politics.

Except Germany - I think there's lots of talk of a Black-Green coalition and there's really interesting debates within the Greens in Germany on foreign policy (where they increasingly appear to be the only party not bought by an authoritarian state).

Yes, Germany is an example of that too. IIRC it was in the Baden-Wurttemberg regional government that Greens and liberals went into a coalition, and that was touted as an example on how the Greens could work with both left and right as required, rather than being locked into the left wing part of the spectrum.

[celedhring]

Environmentalism has historically been linked in Spain with far-left politics. This is is obviously reductionist (i.e. my mom is fairly culturally conservative yet very pro-environment) but, as Larchie explained, has resulted in fledging green parties being co-opted by IU or adjacent parties in the 1990s before they could establish themselves.

Also, the biggest enviromental issue in Spain - water management - has always had a strongly regional bent. Larchie is the expert here, though.

[The Larch]

Ok, I see what you mean. Tbf, I don't think that any Green party will end up overtaking any SocDem, I'm not even aware of any country in which this is a real possibility (AFAIK it has only happened in some regional elections in Germany).

Maybe not in Parliament but I could see Jadot beating the PS in the next French elections (but it'll still probably be Macron-Le Pen). I think they're polling ahead of the SPD at the minute in Germany. They've already overtaken the Dutch Labour Party and Socialist Party. Even where they're not nationally there is that young educated urban vote factor and they're splintering the traditional SocDem base - generally.

It's an interesting and I think important trend.

I'm not aware about some of those but I'll keep an eye on them. In any case, overtaking a plummetting SocDem party for 4th or 5th spot is not really newsworthy, IMO, that's more of a "swapping decks in the Titanic" kind of thing.

Re. why Green parties are not strong here, the situation in Spain was similar to the one in Portugal described by Duque. When Green parties started appearing in Europe in the 80s, the Spanish branch was highly regionalized and didn't really get any results, which promted splinter parties popping up around the country and its main party being swallowed by Izquierda Unida, which is basically a coalition of the communist party with many other smaller parties, which completely blocked its growth and further development, "Green" was basically just another of the many labels that IU attached to itself. More recently a new green party was created in 2011, with quite more support than usual, and ended up getting a few MPs in different coalitions (initially with Podemos, afterwards with a splinter), but it remains very institutionally weak and didn't get any MPs in the latest elections.

Yeah I think the regionalist side of fragmentation in Spain must be a huge part of it, but I wonder if there's also something that PSOE did differently - there aren't many areas of Europe with SocDem governments, they're like the dinosaurs, and I hope it wasn't just luck/local conditions making it difficult for other parties to rise.

Yes and no, I'd say. The regional fragmentation actually consolidated some smaller Green parties (or parties with significant green elements to them) in some regions of Spain, Catalonia and the Balearic Islands, for instance, while it kept them irrelevant in others. The fragmentation of the left also added to the dificulty of gaining representation, and made some of these smaller or fledging green parties ally themselves with others for pure survival or just to have a fighting chance (greens and left wing nationalist parties are a common electoral coalition, for instance), but it also creates the incentive for even further fragmentation (ie, a green nationalist party vs a green national party).

PSOE didn't actually do anything in particular to keep this electorate. I'd say that the "young, urban & educated" sector of the electorate that you mention has over here a more "natural" home in parties like Podemos, as it had it in IU in the past, in a way.

Also, the environmental message is still not *that* strong in Spain. In a way it is still a bit of a "rich country" kind of issue.

[The Larch]

Also, the biggest enviromental issue in Spain - water management - has always had a strongly regional bent. Larchie is the expert here, though.

Oh man, the Aznar years and their national hydrologic plan, those were the days. 

Back then was when I learned that there was something seriously rotten in Murcia...  It didn't really surprise me that it ended up becoming one of Vox's strongholds.

[Josquius]

I've definitely seen some environmentalist leanings in certain strains of conservatism.
Though I find this tends to be rather small picture stuff. Save the fields and the lesser spotted badger and that sort of thing. Not so much concerned with the big issue of global warming.

[The Larch]

I've definitely seen some environmentalist leanings in certain strains of conservatism.
Though I find this tends to be rather small picture stuff. Save the fields and the lesser spotted badger and that sort of thing. Not so much concerned with the big issue of global warming.

There is, yeah, amongst groups focused on stewardship of the land and so on, but many times this ends up entangled with NIMBYSM.

[Sheilbh]

Environmentalism has historically been linked in Spain with far-left politics. This is is obviously reductionist (i.e. my mom is fairly culturally conservative yet very pro-environment) but, as Larchie explained, has resulted in fledging green parties being co-opted by IU or adjacent parties in the 1990s before they could establish themselves.

Also, the biggest enviromental issue in Spain - water management - has always had a strongly regional bent. Larchie is the expert here, though.

Here weirdly the Greens started on the right sort of. There's always been a "conservationist"/sustainability bent to environmentalism in the UK - Prince Charles is the best example - that is weirdly obsessed with overpopulation (with all the exciting racist connotations that could have). So one of the big early influences on the Greens was Teddy Goldsmith, brother of Jimmy Goldsmith who founded and led the first Eurosceptic party (the Referendum Party) and uncle to current Tory Lord Zac Goldsmith (and Jemima Goldsmith, elegant ex-wife of the Pakistani Prime Minister).

Until the 80s they were very influenced by A Blueprint for Survival - from Wiki:

It recommended that people live in small, decentralised and largely de-industrialised communities. Some of the reasons given for this were that:

    it is too difficult to enforce moral behaviour in a large community
    agricultural and business practices are more likely to be ecologically sound in smaller communities
    people feel more fulfilled in smaller communities
    reducing an area's population reduces the environmental impact

The authors used tribal societies as their model which, it was claimed, were characterised by their small, human-scale communities, low-impact technologies, successful population controls, sustainable resource management, holistic and ecologically integrated worldviews, and a high degree of social cohesion, physical health, psychological well-being and spiritual fulfilment of their members.

Yikes

They moved into a more mainstream European left/green position in the 80s - but I think that slight right-wing/conservative "sustainability" focus survives. It may be why our Greens oppose any investment in infrastructure even if it's for cleaner energy or public transport.

I'm not aware about some of those but I'll keep an eye on them. In any case, overtaking a plummetting SocDem party for 4th or 5th spot is not really newsworthy, IMO, that's more of a "swapping decks in the Titanic" kind of thing.

True - but I feel like in a way the success of the Greens is part of the reason for the plummetting which maybe makes it a bit more like, say, Labour overtaking the Liberals in the 1910-20s - or in wider Europe decline of the liberals.

Yes and no, I'd say. The regional fragmentation actually consolidated some smaller Green parties (or parties with significant green elements to them) in some regions of Spain, Catalonia and the Balearic Islands, for instance, while it kept them irrelevant in others. The fragmentation of the left also added to the dificulty of gaining representation, and made some of these smaller or fledging green parties ally themselves with others for pure survival or just to have a fighting chance (greens and left wing nationalist parties are a common electoral coalition, for instance), but it also creates the incentive for even further fragmentation (ie, a green nationalist party vs a green national party).

PSOE didn't actually do anything in particular to keep this electorate. I'd say that the "young, urban & educated" sector of the electorate that you mention has over here a more "natural" home in parties like Podemos, as it had it in IU in the past, in a way.

Also, the environmental message is still not *that* strong in Spain. In a way it is still a bit of a "rich country" kind of issue.

Interesting. It is different in that I think lots of countries have a left party as well as a green party and they kind of pincer the mainstream left - like Die Linke or the SP in the Netherlands, or France Insoumise in France.

And I'm suprised about the environmental message not hitting because I feel like Spain would be one of the more directly impacted countries in Europe.

But then you have Austraila - my low key hot take is that the most important/telling electoral result of the last 5 years wasn't Brexit or Trump but the Aussie election - where they're very directly affected by climate: half the country's literally on fire most of the time but they also depend on extraction industries. Labour ran on a sort of "this is a crisis" platform plus a sort of Green New Deal and the Liberals ran on not being able to afford that plus support for the extraction industries. Climate/environmental politics were the big issue - and the Liberals won

[celedhring]

Environmental issues are important in Spain - just not at the national level. Pollution and how to address it has been a pretty big campaign talking point in the Barcelona local election for several terms already.

[Zanza]

Yes, Germany is an example of that too. IIRC it was in the Baden-Wurttemberg regional government that Greens and liberals went into a coalition, and that was touted as an example on how the Greens could work with both left and right as required, rather than being locked into the left wing part of the spectrum.

The Greens first ruled as senior partner of a Green-Social Democrat coalition from 2011 to 2016 and have since ruled as senior partner of a Green-Conservative coalition. We have elections in March and the Greens and Conservatives are head-to-head at roughly 30% each. A lot of that support is due to their moderate leader.
The Greens are losing support on their left flank though where esoterics, anti-vaxx, more radical environmentalists etc. are leaving them.

[The Larch]

Environmentalism has historically been linked in Spain with far-left politics. This is is obviously reductionist (i.e. my mom is fairly culturally conservative yet very pro-environment) but, as Larchie explained, has resulted in fledging green parties being co-opted by IU or adjacent parties in the 1990s before they could establish themselves.

Also, the biggest enviromental issue in Spain - water management - has always had a strongly regional bent. Larchie is the expert here, though.

Here weirdly the Greens started on the right sort of. There's always been a "conservationist"/sustainability bent to environmentalism in the UK - Prince Charles is the best example - that is weirdly obsessed with overpopulation (with all the exciting racist connotations that could have). So one of the big early influences on the Greens was Teddy Goldsmith, brother of Jimmy Goldsmith who founded and led the first Eurosceptic party (the Referendum Party) and uncle to current Tory Lord Zac Goldsmith (and Jemima Goldsmith, elegant ex-wife of the Pakistani Prime Minister).

Until the 80s they were very influenced by A Blueprint for Survival - from Wiki:

It recommended that people live in small, decentralised and largely de-industrialised communities. Some of the reasons given for this were that:

    it is too difficult to enforce moral behaviour in a large community
    agricultural and business practices are more likely to be ecologically sound in smaller communities
    people feel more fulfilled in smaller communities
    reducing an area's population reduces the environmental impact

The authors used tribal societies as their model which, it was claimed, were characterised by their small, human-scale communities, low-impact technologies, successful population controls, sustainable resource management, holistic and ecologically integrated worldviews, and a high degree of social cohesion, physical health, psychological well-being and spiritual fulfilment of their members.

Yikes

They moved into a more mainstream European left/green position in the 80s - but I think that slight right-wing/conservative "sustainability" focus survives. It may be why our Greens oppose any investment in infrastructure even if it's for cleaner energy or public transport.

Remember when we talked about the English obsession with pastoralism and quaint countrysides and anti-industrialisation, Tolkien or Jerusalem style? 

I'm not aware about some of those but I'll keep an eye on them. In any case, overtaking a plummetting SocDem party for 4th or 5th spot is not really newsworthy, IMO, that's more of a "swapping decks in the Titanic" kind of thing.

True - but I feel like in a way the success of the Greens is part of the reason for the plummetting which maybe makes it a bit more like, say, Labour overtaking the Liberals in the 1910-20s - or in wider Europe decline of the liberals.

Well, Greens as an alternative for the mainstream left is dead in the water here firstly because of the existance of first IU and then Podemos and secondly because of the regional fragmentation. And I'd say other countries might be similar, if there's a strong left wing alternative to the mainstream SocDems already before the Greens appear in the marketplace of ideas. Maybe you can do a correlation between how strong commie or post-commie parties are in some countries and how strong green parties are, and see what's the relation. I have the feeling that in those countries where there's a strong commie/post-commie party occupying that "alternative left" political niche there won't be lots of room for Green parties. But how to explain Germany then, with the strongest Green party in Europe but also Die Linke around... 

Yes and no, I'd say. The regional fragmentation actually consolidated some smaller Green parties (or parties with significant green elements to them) in some regions of Spain, Catalonia and the Balearic Islands, for instance, while it kept them irrelevant in others. The fragmentation of the left also added to the dificulty of gaining representation, and made some of these smaller or fledging green parties ally themselves with others for pure survival or just to have a fighting chance (greens and left wing nationalist parties are a common electoral coalition, for instance), but it also creates the incentive for even further fragmentation (ie, a green nationalist party vs a green national party).

PSOE didn't actually do anything in particular to keep this electorate. I'd say that the "young, urban & educated" sector of the electorate that you mention has over here a more "natural" home in parties like Podemos, as it had it in IU in the past, in a way.

Also, the environmental message is still not *that* strong in Spain. In a way it is still a bit of a "rich country" kind of issue.

Interesting. It is different in that I think lots of countries have a left party as well as a green party and they kind of pincer the mainstream left - like Die Linke or the SP in the Netherlands, or France Insoumise in France.

And I'm suprised about the environmental message not hitting because I feel like Spain would be one of the more directly impacted countries in Europe.

Oh, it definitely should be more important, but I might bee biased.  Now more seriously, the problem in Spain is that almost all political discourse is focused on very short-term issues, and any environmental issue is by definition long term, so this ends up being brushed aside "for later". Also, there's still an obsession about jobs and economic development that normally puts anything that might hamper it in the backburner. As I said, sometimes it still feels like the environment is a rich country issue, and we should still focus on development.

Some issues are still coming up higher and higher in the list of priorities, mostly at the local level. Before Covid tourist saturation and all the problems it implied was becoming one of the main topics in places like Barcelona or the Balearic islands, although nowadays this is almost forgotten. In Madrid air pollution mostly from traffic is also a big issue, and in other large cities this is also becoming more and more important. At the regional level you also have lots of issues regarding real estate development, mostly in coastal places for touristic uses. In the short term issues related to climate change will also come to the forefront, with parts of the south and the Mediterranean coast of Spain expected to become more and more water deprived, and at extreme risk of desertification, and so on.

But then you have Austraila - my low key hot take is that the most important/telling electoral result of the last 5 years wasn't Brexit or Trump but the Aussie election - where they're very directly affected by climate: half the country's literally on fire most of the time but they also depend on extraction industries. Labour ran on a sort of "this is a crisis" platform plus a sort of Green New Deal and the Liberals ran on not being able to afford that plus support for the extraction industries. Climate/environmental politics were the big issue - and the Liberals won

Oh yes, Australia is quite a peculiar case. I've kinda followed them a bit since the 00s, and they've almost always been the most hardcore "screw the environment" country in the developed world. It seems that the coal lobby has their political class all caught by the balls.

[Duque de Bragança]

Maybe not in Parliament but I could see Jadot beating the PS in the next French elections (but it'll still probably be Macron-Le Pen). I think they're polling ahead of the SPD at the minute in Germany. They've already overtaken the Dutch Labour Party and Socialist Party. Even where they're not nationally there is that young educated urban vote factor and they're splintering the traditional SocDem base - generally.

PS has been mostly recycled by Macron and there is no way for Jadot or one of his clique to win, say anti-vaxxer Michèle Rubiroal (still inviting Wakefield for a debate in  2017) number 2 on the list for European Parliament election.
The empty shell that is the PS yes, but Greens don't fare well in Presidential elections, which go well beyond their bobo/hipster/New age/vegan/homeopathy clientèle.

[Sheilbh]

Remember when we talked about the English obsession with pastoralism and quaint countrysides and anti-industrialisation, Tolkien or Jerusalem style? 

Point taken.

Well, Greens as an alternative for the mainstream left is dead in the water here firstly because of the existance of first IU and then Podemos and secondly because of the regional fragmentation. And I'd say other countries might be similar, if there's a strong left wing alternative to the mainstream SocDems already before the Greens appear in the marketplace of ideas. Maybe you can do a correlation between how strong commie or post-commie parties are in some countries and how strong green parties are, and see what's the relation. I have the feeling that in those countries where there's a strong commie/post-commie party occupying that "alternative left" political niche there won't be lots of room for Green parties. But how to explain Germany then, with the strongest Green party in Europe but also Die Linke around... 

Also the Netherlands - I think at the last election the Socialists overtook the Labour Party but now both are about to be overtaken by the Greens or even France where La France Insoumise is ahead of the PS, but now coming up behind them - maybe as the "mainstream" left is the Greens. I think the fragmentation of the left and the rise of the Greens is a really interesting trend in a fair few countries and I actually wonder if it's the opposite (again Spain as an exception). The rise of a hard-left party (often with bad relations with the SocDems/mainstream left) and the rise of the far or populist right in traditional working class heartlands leave mainstream SocDems sort of caught and given to triangulating, which is impossible when your opponents are far left and far right. Into that space a Green party can do well as a genuine left-ish, progressive force?

PSOE didn't actually do anything in particular to keep this electorate. I'd say that the "young, urban & educated" sector of the electorate that you mention has over here a more "natural" home in parties like Podemos, as it had it in IU in the past, in a way.

Incidentally on this I was dating a Spanish guy once and almost broke up with him because he was a Ciudadanos supporter

Some issues are still coming up higher and higher in the list of priorities, mostly at the local level. Before Covid tourist saturation and all the problems it implied was becoming one of the main topics in places like Barcelona or the Balearic islands, although nowadays this is almost forgotten. In Madrid air pollution mostly from traffic is also a big issue, and in other large cities this is also becoming more and more important. At the regional level you also have lots of issues regarding real estate development, mostly in coastal places for touristic uses. In the short term issues related to climate change will also come to the forefront, with parts of the south and the Mediterranean coast of Spain expected to become more and more water deprived, and at extreme risk of desertification, and so on.

Yeah it'll be interesting see. And I wonder if the regional fragmentation maybe hurts in dealing with it because it tends to be kept as a local issue

Oh yes, Australia is quite a peculiar case. I've kinda followed them a bit since the 00s, and they've almost always been the most hardcore "screw the environment" country in the developed world. It seems that the coal lobby has their political class all caught by the balls.

Yeah - and I get that it's a big industry, it just felt like if there was one country where climate might matter in an election it would be Australia. But I also think it kind of highlights the issue of developing a coherent environmental message - either you emphasise the pending catastrophe which makes people feel powerless and voting pointless, or you emphasise transformation/energy transition as a route out which maybe isn't enough of a hook for people to vote.

It's why I quite like Johnson's latest efforts (stolen from liberal Democrats and the Labour party) of going big on energy transition as essential for climate and a source of jobs. Apparently it's a big part of the idea of how to keep the Red Wall seats. Only here it's pitched as a Green Industrial Revolution not a Green New Deal.