Quo Vadis GOP?

[Syt]

What will/should the party do post Trump-presidency?

Will they be able to normalize themselves again, or will the stay their extreme course?

Will there be a new, more moderate conservative party that will become the new mainstream right of center alternative?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/01/08/end-of-republican-party-whigs/

This Republican Party needs to go the way of the Whigs

If any good could possibly come of the Trump-incited mob's murderous attack on the United States Capitol, and the people's representatives therein, it would be the demise of this Republican Party.

Even as Trump-inspired barbarians overran Capitol Police Wednesday, fatally injuring one, to defile and plunder the Capitol, official word came that Democrats had won the second Georgia Senate seat, exiling Republicans to the political wilderness for the first time in a decade, without control of the White House, House or Senate.

And, at the same time, the whole world saw the defeated leader of this Republican Party use the awesome powers of the presidency to instigate an insurrection against the legislature — a coup attempt, plain and simple. After the last time Republicans lost the presidency, in 2012, they famously held an "autopsy" to see what had gone wrong. This time, President Trump went straight to the cremation, throwing the Capitol, with Vice President Pence in it, onto the funeral pyre.

So many sounded the alarm for so long about Trump's authoritarian instincts and violent rhetoric. For years, he instigated threats and violence against journalists ("enemy of the people"), racial and religious minorities, immigrants and Democrats. Yet Republicans excused him, defended him, enabled him. Now, in defeat, the autocrat showed the world his true colors and mobilized violence against Congress, Republicans included, and his own vice president.

What Trump's mob did to the Capitol — the first time the seat of American government had been sacked since the War of 1812 — was evil. It was murder. It was domestic terrorism. It was sedition. And, yes, it was treason.

Yet what Trump's Republican allies were doing inside the chambers of Congress at the time of the attack — Trump's justification for inciting the riot — was just as seditious: They were attempting to overturn Joe Biden's election as president, overrule the voters and install Trump, by fiat, for another term.

This Republican Party needs to go the way of the Whigs.

The GOP was born, from the ashes of the Whigs, under similar circumstances. The Whigs in 1848 jettisoned their core principle — limited presidential power — in favor of political expediency. Instead of nominating one of their legendary statesmen — Daniel Webster or Henry Clay — the Whigs went with celebrity war-hero Zachary Taylor, an enslaver who was popular with Southerners but had no governing experience and no fealty to Whig principles. Taylor won, but he savaged Whig leaders and Whig doctrine. The party, split over slavery, dissolved.

In 2016, McGill University historian Gil Troy, presciently noting the parallel deal with the devil Republicans made with Trump, wrote in Politico: "Many Republicans might want to consider what is worse: the institutional problems mass defections by 'Conscience Republicans' could bring about — or the moral ruin that could come from the ones who stay behind, choosing to pursue party power over principles."

Today's morally ruined Republican Party knows the answer. "The ultimate challenge to the Republican Party is: Do they want to find their soul again? Do they want to be patriots again?" Troy told me this week. It comes down to whether "there are enough people in the party to say, 'We've gone to the brink. How do we pull back?'"

Trump administration officials now announcing last-minute resignations, after excusing similar abuses for years, are hardly profiles in courage. Eleventh-hour epiphanies from the likes of chief Trump enablers Pence, Sen. Lindsey Graham (S.C.) and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.), though welcome, are unpersuasive. They have the ability to remove Trump from power immediately; any further damage he does is on them.

But the seditious actions this week in Congress to overturn the election and overthrow the incoming Biden presidency provide a useful delineation: which Republicans have followed Trump off the cliff of authoritarianism and which still have some respect for democratic principles.

In the Senate, there are signs of hope. After the insurrection in the Capitol, several senators proposing to overturn the election results reconsidered, leaving only eight Republican senators beyond all salvation: ringleaders Ted Cruz (Tex.) and Josh Hawley (Mo.), with blood on their hands; and Rick Scott (Fla.), John Neely Kennedy (La.), Tommy Tuberville (Ala.), Cindy Hyde-Smith (Miss.), Cynthia Lummis (Wyo.) and Roger Marshall (Kan.).

In the House, prospects for Republican redemption are dimmer. Even after Trump's mob brought siege and death to the Capitol, two-thirds of Republicans voted to overturn the election. They weren't just the usual nutters — Jim Jordan (Ohio), Matt Gaetz (Fla.), Louie Gohmert (Tex.), Lee Zeldin (N.Y.) — but also House Republican leaders Kevin McCarthy (Calif.) and Steve Scalise (La.).

As long as such people remain in positions of honor, trust or profit under the United States, the Republican Party will not be a participant in constitutional democracy, but rather an entity dedicated to its destruction.

[Solmyr]

Posted this in the Trump thread, but looks like the GOP are just fine with Trump, thank you very much: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/08/us/politics/trump-republican-national-committee.html

[garbon]

Posted this in the Trump thread, but looks like the GOP are just fine with Trump, thank you very much: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/08/us/politics/trump-republican-national-committee.html

I think that fits in-line with the op-ed headline. It can't be salvaged only disbanded.

[Syt]

Posted this in the Trump thread, but looks like the GOP are just fine with Trump, thank you very much: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/08/us/politics/trump-republican-national-committee.html

I think that fits in-line with the op-ed headline. It can't be salvaged only disbanded.

Personally, I don't see this happening unless they're losing seats, governorships, etc. As long as they feel they are winning (or can win) they'll keep going.

[The Brain]

Whatever happens to the party the politicians and voters will still be there.

[Oexmelin]

Indeed. Pundits who are endlessly seeing "signs of hope", and "change of tone" are either utterly clueless or hopelessly married to their past narratives.

[Solmyr]

Posted this in the Trump thread, but looks like the GOP are just fine with Trump, thank you very much: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/08/us/politics/trump-republican-national-committee.html

I think that fits in-line with the op-ed headline. It can't be salvaged only disbanded.

Personally, I don't see this happening unless they're losing seats, governorships, etc. As long as they feel they are winning (or can win) they'll keep going.

It's gonna be interesting to see what happens. Lots of MAGA types are now swearing that they will never vote for GOP again.

[Duque de Bragança]

The Tarpeian Rock is close to the Capitol... 

[Tamas]

I don't see any quick way back to the centre from where they are. Yet, it seems being the party of raving fascists can keep them almost at the level of Democrats' support, so continuing on the Trumpist way shall offer livelihood and power for a lot of people.

[Eddie Teach]

The Whigs were destroyed by Slavery and the Republicans. Without an ideological underpinning for a realignment, I don't see them going anywhere.

[Sheilbh]

I don't see a political reason to change. My bet would be that question 1 in the first GOP primary debate in 2023 will be "Is Joe Biden's presidency legitimate?" and my guess is the eventual winner will say no in some way or other.

Until there's a political motivation I don't see why there'd be a change. That may happen - I think the 2020 map is really interesting, as was the Georgia Senate results, but it's not clear what it means yet.

[grumbler]

I don't see a political reason to change. My bet would be that question 1 in the first GOP primary debate in 2023 will be "Is Joe Biden's presidency legitimate?" and my guess is the eventual winner will say no in some way or other.

Until there's a political motivation I don't see why there'd be a change. That may happen - I think the 2020 map is really interesting, as was the Georgia Senate results, but it's not clear what it means yet.

I agree.  Nov 3 2020 - Jan 5 2021 was a disappointment for the Republicans in many arenas, but not disastrous in that they actually picked up House seats.

The leadership knows that they need to keep up the fantasy of Republican rebels fighting the evil Democratic Empire to remain viable as a party; the only thing they have to offer the lumpen is the illusion that this is an existential struggle between God's forces (Republicans) and the Devil's forces (everyone else).  No one would logically vote for today's Republican agenda, but 75 million will emotionally vote for it.  So long as that is working, why change?

Meanwhile, the rich get richer.

[The Minsky Moment]

The history in the OP on the Whigs is wrong; Taylor does not bear blame for the fate of the party.

The Whigs were never an anti-slavery party; there were always split between northern and southern factions with the southern faction including some of the most rabid pro-slavery polticians of the era, like Robert Toombs.  That split, which was inherent in the party's formation, was what made the party's dissolution inevitable ion the 1850s, when slavery became the dominant issue in US politics. No shuffling of leadership personnel could fix that problem.

The Whigs always struggled to compete in Presidential elections; the Democrats pretty consistently had a structural majority in that era.  The only time the Whigs won Presidential elections were the two times they nominated nationally popular war heroes with vague political views, first Harrison then Taylor.  In both cases, they died shortly after taking office and were succeeded by unpopular VPs disliked by many in the Whig party.

Taylor was a slaveholder but he actually opposed expansion of slaveholding in the territories, his views when in office were closer to northern whigs than southern.  His biggest shortcoming was dying early; IMO it's silly to blame him for the demise of the party.

[Josquius]

The demographics are against them but they've a few fair years left, especially in hick states.
The danger is people forget, which looking at the UK for a lesson I think they probably will.

[The Brain]

The demographics are against them but they've a few fair years left, especially in hick states.

I don't share your optimism regarding the decline in relative numbers of ignorant and hateful people.