US 2020 Presidential Election prediction thread

[The Larch]

According to FiveThirtyEight snake graph thingie, the current state favouring Trump by the lowest margin is Ohio by 1.2%, and the ones favouring Biden are Iowa and Georgia by 0.1%. Texas is Trump's by 2.6%, Pennsilvania is Biden's by 5.1%.

[Grey Fox]

I think Texas is in play a lot more than PA or OH.

Biden has consistently polled much higher in PA than in TX.

Yes. 

[OttoVonBismarck]

I think Biden will still lose Texas, but he might get within 2% which in itself would be a big deal. It would likely come with several more U.S. House members from the 27 county "metro areas" of Texas flipping from red to blue (these are the counties that encompass the metro areas of Dallas / Fort Woth, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio--and represent 70% of Texas's projected voting population in this election), along with the Democrats being competitive to retake the Texas state house (I expect they will come up a few seats short.)

Every serious political observer of Texas politics thinks this is the beginning of a trend, not a blip, and expect the Republicans will not for the foreseeable future have Texas return to a guaranteed win-state for them, in statewide elections or state legislative elections. While you may see a slight slideback in 2022, because Trump probably has put Democrats in Texas on steroids, the demographic realities will be even more pronounced by 2024, 2026 etc. Texas is a fast growing state, and it is those 27 county population areas that are growing. They are primarily growing in the form of white, urbanized, liberal people who are part of the professional class. With its current slate of politicians and messages, the GOP is going to continue to struggle mightily with this group of voters.

FWIW the way Biden likely loses is just that Texas is still decently republican. There's over 200 counties in Texas, outside of the 27 county "metropolitan Texas" you have another 8% of the electorate in "Hispanic" counties along the Rio Grande (these counties often have Latino populations > 80%, broadly Spanish language speaking, and they are historically deep blue), these counties historically have bad turnout, then you have all the rest of Texas which is made up of counties that are filled with rural communities and small towns. While only holding around 25-30% of the electorate, they are on a trajectory to go 85-90% Republican. Meanwhile the metro areas of Texas remain more competitive than metro areas in many other states, Ted Cruz won some of the battles for these areas against Beto O'Rourke, and he fought him to near draws in others. While across the 27 county region O'Rourke enjoyed an overall vote lead, the resilience of Republicans here versus other similar areas in other states is what keeps them viable, and likely wins Texas' electoral votes for Trump. I do think it'll be closely fought however, and mind the Democrats have never gone fully in on Texas since it's not a must win state and it's also an expensive stretch state to campaign in needlessly. If you're a populist Texas Republican I can't imagine you feel very positive about your long term future.

[Eddie Teach]

Voters don't remember long-term. Just redo your message when it stops selling.

[alfred russel]

I've now got $20k bet on Biden in various forms, so I'm reading up on this a lot recently.

Re: Texas.

I read a district level analysis that says that Trump is probably going to win, but close. This is because Republicans are making minority inroads in the cities, and intensifying their rural support. These are mostly districted as safe areas: the former are safely democratic and the latter republican. However, republican support is collapsing in the suburbs, which are the swing districts.

On a total vote basis statewide, the Republicans may win as gains among urban minorities and rural votes are offset by losses in the suburbs, but that doesn't mean they hold the legislature.

[Sheilbh]

I suppose the scenario where Biden wins is ultimately about enthusiasm. I saw a thing about, I think Rick Perry, saying that Trump wasn't campaigning in Texas and won't campaign in Texas because it's a Republican state etc etc.

And a bit of me wonders if it could be to him a bit like Michigan and Wisconsing were for Hilary. There's more regular polling about Texas, I suppose, but the slight indifference/negligence of the Trump campaign (or just feeling that campaigning in Texas would seem weak) seems like something that could have consequences. I don't think campaign stops change anyone's votes but I think they could make a difference for enthusiasm of your base.

[alfred russel]

I suppose the scenario where Biden wins is ultimately about enthusiasm. I saw a thing about, I think Rick Perry, saying that Trump wasn't campaigning in Texas and won't campaign in Texas because it's a Republican state etc etc.

And a bit of me wonders if it could be to him a bit like Michigan and Wisconsing were for Hilary. There's more regular polling about Texas, I suppose, but the slight indifference/negligence of the Trump campaign (or just feeling that campaigning in Texas would seem weak) seems like something that could have consequences. I don't think campaign stops change anyone's votes but I think they could make a difference for enthusiasm of your base.

Two thoughts: #1 is that while Texas may very well vote for Biden, if it does it is likely a Biden blowout and doesn't really matter. The story goes that Hillary took the midwest for granted and the midwest went for Trump, with those electoral votes being decisive. It is hard to see Texas being decisive. #2 Texas is a massive state. A stop in Houston isn't really relevant in El Paso and vice versa. It is also an expensive media market. If you think you need to campaign in Texas, you really need to spend considerable time and money.

[OttoVonBismarck]

The reality is with the current state a play, most likely the real reason you'd put money into Texas at all is more building up the Democrat infrastructure there, targeting co-spending in key Texas legislative districts or U.S. House districts etc. It's not that Biden wouldn't want to win it, but he can't logically go after it like he is Pennsylvania or Florida, if he wins Texas the national picture is such that he's probably won states like North Carolina, Georgia, Florida by comfortable margins too in which case he's pushing 400 electoral votes and we have a landslide scenario.

[Razgovory]

Well, so far I've only been "almost right" about a Trump October surprise.  I said that Bill Barr would announce a criminal investigation into Joe Biden right before the election.  That obviously hasn't happened, yet Trump is very vocal about his demands that Bill Barr do this very thing.  Actually, Trump is now demanding Barr imprison Joe Biden.  Barr hasn't done that, and hopefully he won't.  Still... I was pretty close.

[Habbaku]

Barr has shown no inclination to arrest or even charge Biden with anything, yet you were "almost right"? OK.

[FunkMonk]

Kamala Harris's Texas trip on Friday will take her to Fort Worth, McAllen and Houston, campaign says.

https://twitter.com/jeneps/status/1321459062240849924

[Barrister]

I suppose the scenario where Biden wins is ultimately about enthusiasm. I saw a thing about, I think Rick Perry, saying that Trump wasn't campaigning in Texas and won't campaign in Texas because it's a Republican state etc etc.

And a bit of me wonders if it could be to him a bit like Michigan and Wisconsing were for Hilary. There's more regular polling about Texas, I suppose, but the slight indifference/negligence of the Trump campaign (or just feeling that campaigning in Texas would seem weak) seems like something that could have consequences. I don't think campaign stops change anyone's votes but I think they could make a difference for enthusiasm of your base.

I think it makes sense in this way - if there's enough of a swing that Trump loses Texas, that swing taking place in other states as well means that Trump is toast.

Fivethirtyeight has a tool where you can see their election odds, and then change it depending on who wins what state: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/?cid=abcnews

At the start it gives Trump a 12% chance of winning the election.  If you flip Texas to Biden it goes to <1%, with Biden taking every possible swing state.

[Tamas]

I am finding myself having trouble trying to get into the analysis of this election. I just can't process the idea of somebody wanting to vote for Trump.

Even with Dubya I could understand the appeal of flag-waving scaremongering even if I wasn't a fan of it. But I simply cannot wrap my mind around the idea of somebody looking at this absolute piece of shit and thinking "yep that guy should lead my country".

[Syt]

I am finding myself having trouble trying to get into the analysis of this election. I just can't process the idea of somebody wanting to vote for Trump.

Even with Dubya I could understand the appeal of flag-waving scaremongering even if I wasn't a fan of it. But I simply cannot wrap my mind around the idea of somebody looking at this absolute piece of shit and thinking "yep that guy should lead my country".

Because they believe the other side is even worse.

[grumbler]

I am finding myself having trouble trying to get into the analysis of this election. I just can't process the idea of somebody wanting to vote for Trump.

Even with Dubya I could understand the appeal of flag-waving scaremongering even if I wasn't a fan of it. But I simply cannot wrap my mind around the idea of somebody looking at this absolute piece of shit and thinking "yep that guy should lead my country".

Again, you misunderstand Trump voters.  They are locked in a culture war the loss of which will end America, they believe.  They think that Biden is "historically bad" and so Trump is at least the lesser of the two evils, even ignoring the fact that democrats are satanic child molesters.