A Test of Civilizations?

[mongers]

How well do you think your country's socio-economic system and it's politicians, especially the health system, will respond to an outbreak of the coronavirus (COVID-19) as compared to how Xi Jinping's communist China has so far?

I know it's not over or even peaked yet, but for a measure I suggest we use what's happened in China since 30/31st December when the first 8 or 9 cases were discovered to the point this week when the death toll topped 1,000 and cases numbered around 40,000, a period of six weeks, 42 days.

So if you country has an outbreak, say 6-12 cases, start the virtual clock running from there and let see how our different systems response of the follow 6 weeks as compared to China.

As it happens two days ago the UK announced there had been 8 cases, so it'll be interesting and scary to see what the situation is like in late March (22nd). Hopefully it won't be as bad as China and all of the official announcements are reassuring, but it is Johnson in charge and his cabinet of all the talents. 

Given the degree on international co-operation and the efforts of WHO and many others, our government's shouldn't be going into a health crisis knowing very little.

[Monoriu]

May I suggest that you stockpile toilet paper. 

[DGuller]

I think it's hard to judge China's response just yet.  Has the virus been so deadly because the healthcare system in China or Wuhan was so inept at handling it?  Or was it because the virus was truly a deadly threat unleashed?  In a new black death scenario, I think China's system has a lot going for it.  I don't see any Western nation being able to implement quarantine as effectively as China can.

[mongers]

I think it's hard to judge China's response just yet.  Has the virus been so deadly because the healthcare system in China or Wuhan was so inept at handling it?  Or was it because the virus was truly a deadly threat unleashed?  In a new black death scenario, I think China's system has a lot going for it.  I don't see any Western nation being able to implement quarantine as effectively as China can.

Indeed, which is why the question is to compare one's owns response to that of China's, a relative one,not an absolute one, as you rightly point out we don't really know just how danger this virus is.

[dps]

But that's the problem;  we don't really know how dangerous the virus is.  If it's extremely dangerous, the West might deal with it no better than China has, and possibly worse due to the quarantine issues DGuller pointed out.  OTOH, if it's not really all that dangerous and has just been so bad because the Chinese haven't dealt with it well, we should expect the response to it in the West to be much better.

[celedhring]

I can't see Spain being able to implement such stringent quarantine measures until it's too late. And I would say the same for most western nations.

[Iormlund]

On the other hand, there would have been no initial cover-up. So I'm going with more or less the same outcome.

[Richard Hakluyt]

I'm expecting this one to get out and kill millions; I hope I'm wrong. It will be interesting to find out how much damage will be done by the virus compared to the collateral effects of economic dislocation and social disorder. I think the social effects could be worse than the virus itself; we have grown used to high health security, unlike our forebears back in 1918/19.

[Sheilbh]

I think it's hard to judge China's response just yet.  Has the virus been so deadly because the healthcare system in China or Wuhan was so inept at handling it?  Or was it because the virus was truly a deadly threat unleashed?  In a new black death scenario, I think China's system has a lot going for it.  I don't see any Western nation being able to implement quarantine as effectively as China can.

And there are some people who are very, very sceptical of the numbers being reported in China. There was a professor of epidemology on the radio recently noting that the only cases being reported out of Hubei are ones that are linked to Hubei. He thought the actual rate of infection could be a lot higher.

I also wonder if the virus may have been so deadly because authoritarian systems aren't necessarily great at reporting bad news upwards, so I wonder if there was an element of trying to keep this at a city/province level and deal with it until that became impossible at Chinese New Year.

Difficult to guess because I know nothing, but the LSTHM have said we're implementing the same measures as we did during the MERS outbreak and they should be reasonably effective. Who knows though?

[viper37]

If this had began in Canada, the outcome would have been worst.  No way you can countain people home in New Years time and our ER are already under assault.  Besides, the Trudeau govt is inept at solving any kind of crisis.

[11B4V]

Trump will go high and right.

[Josquius]

It seems certain that the numbers are higher globally than is reported.
It's said that for most it will present as nothing more than a mild flu or less. Plenty of people won't see a doctor over this.

If this had began in Canada, the outcome would have been worst.  No way you can countain people home in New Years time and our ER are already under assault.  Besides, the Trudeau govt is inept at solving any kind of crisis.

But what are the odds of running into another Canadian on a given day?

[KRonn]

I think the US has responded well, and seems to be keeping a handle on it. Some mandatory screenings at airports, working on vaccines and medicines for the virus, isolating those who have it. Working hard to keep on top of it.

[dps]

I think the US has responded well, and seems to be keeping a handle on it. Some mandatory screenings at airports, working on vaccines and medicines for the virus, isolating those who have it. Working hard to keep on top of it.

I don't disagree, but we haven't had a large caseload here (at least not yet, let's hope it stays that way) and we still don't know how dangerous this virus actually is.

[mongers]

Prompted by Yi's comment in the Covid 19 thread:

WHO announced virus has peaked in China.  Also government orders all wet markets closed. From NPR/BBC

Now South Korea and Italy get to answer monger's question.

Still to soon to tell, but not looking good for those two countries and especially Iran, where there's very little believable information coming out.