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Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

Started by Syt, January 18, 2020, 09:36:09 AM

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Eddie Teach

Quote from: Sheilbh on February 27, 2020, 02:16:11 PM
Quote from: Eddie Teach on February 27, 2020, 02:08:14 PM
Quote from: DGuller on February 27, 2020, 01:42:24 PM
I wonder what the effect on election an outbreak would have.  One obvious outcome is that Buttigieg will be the nominee by default.  The stakes would also get much higher with five or so openings on the Supreme Court.

:lol:

What about the GOP candidate? Brokered convention?
Trump is a germaphobe. I imagine he'll go full Howard Hughes in the White House.

Might be too late though.
To sleep, perchance to dream. But in that sleep of death, what dreams may come?

The Minsky Moment

Ok let's say we value at 1/10 of what the agencies do.  That still implies it would be worth spending around $160 billion to prevent.

The point of this exercise is not to get to a precise amount but to get a rough sense of what a reasonable proportional response looks like given the risk.
The purpose of studying economics is not to acquire a set of ready-made answers to economic questions, but to learn how to avoid being deceived by economists.
--Joan Robinson

Syt

3 confirmed cases in Vienna, including a school kid.

It's been nice knowing you guys. :(
I am, somehow, less interested in the weight and convolutions of Einstein's brain than in the near certainty that people of equal talent have lived and died in cotton fields and sweatshops.
—Stephen Jay Gould

Proud owner of 42 Zoupa Points.

DGuller

Quote from: crazy canuck on February 27, 2020, 02:22:20 PM
Quote from: The Minsky Moment on February 27, 2020, 02:14:45 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on February 27, 2020, 01:57:50 PM
That is a preposterous assumption.

It's not an assumption.  It is the actual figure used by regulatory agencies spending real federal dollars.

Again with the facts. Lawyers  :rolleyes:
It's a fact taken out of context.  No, the US population on the whole is not worth 160 times its GDP.  When it comes to analytics, you need to use common sense to know when a "fact" applies and when its underlying assumptions cease to be satisfied.

viper37

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on February 27, 2020, 12:58:57 PM
Seems to me this is a simple application of risk aversion.

There are three possible reactions, as measured ex post

1) React exactly and precisely in proportion to the threat, as measured ex post.  The chance of hitting this precise sweet spot ex ante is not great
2) Over-react
3) Under-react

Since (1) is unlikely, the real options are (2) or (3). But the cost of under-reacting at an increment "X" is likely to be higher than the cost of over-reacting at a similar increment.

Therefore it is rational to over-react.



It really depends on what you intend by "over-react" (I have missed a couple of pages), but #1 should be to simply prepare, in case it happens.  Have a plan.  Like, say, in war, you certainly plan for the ennemy to attack you at some point.  And yes, maybe you built defensive structures for nothing, but you were prepared.  That is not over-reacting.

Same thing with the disease.  Plan ahead, at a governmental level.  On other end of the spectrum, saying it's no big deal because it doesn't kill as much as Ebola or car accidents is kinda stupid.  We are vaccinated for a high number of diseases which has much less than 50% chances of killing us.  We do it because it's much more convenient to be healthy than to be sick at home.

Infected people won't work.  If their kids is infected, the school will be shut down and lots of people will be home as CC pointed.

That is an economic risk that must be factored in in your calculations.  There is also the possibility of sequels due to this virus.  Maybe you'll have a bad kidney after that.  Of maybe your lungs would be damaged.  It is much better to prepare in advance to avoid the worst possible scenario.

That means a federal government coordinating with the healthcare directors/ministers of all States/Provinces/Regions of their territory to establish a plan of action in case of a pandemic.  Yes, that will cost money.  But just like global warming and many other catastrophes, the choice is paying a little now for protection or paying a lot later to deal with the damages.
I don't do meditation.  I drink alcohol to relax, like normal people.

If Microsoft Excel decided to stop working overnight, the world would practically end.

alfred russel

Quote from: The Minsky Moment on February 27, 2020, 02:28:04 PM
Ok let's say we value at 1/10 of what the agencies do.  That still implies it would be worth spending around $160 billion to prevent.

The point of this exercise is not to get to a precise amount but to get a rough sense of what a reasonable proportional response looks like given the risk.

And trillions of market cap have disappeared--a large portion of which can be attributed to anticipated lost economic activity due to the response to the virus. It doesn't cost a penny to tell people to avoid unnecessary trips outside the home but the restaurant owner that has his business fail has suffered a real costs (which won't even be directly included in those market cap losses, btw).
They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety.

There's a fine line between salvation and drinking poison in the jungle.

I'm embarrassed. I've been making the mistake of associating with you. It won't happen again. :)
-garbon, February 23, 2014

PDH

Quote from: Legbiter on February 27, 2020, 02:25:57 PM
What scares me the most are double-digit numbers of people requiring critcal care all at the same time. The math becomes horrendous very fast.

Virgin Soil Epidemics can be most lethal not by the mortality of the disease but by overwhelming the ability to care for the sick who could recover with proper care.
I have come to believe that the whole world is an enigma, a harmless enigma that is made terrible by our own mad attempt to interpret it as though it had an underlying truth.
-Umberto Eco

-------
"I'm pretty sure my level of depression has nothing to do with how much of a fucking asshole you are."

-CdM

Maladict

First case in the Netherlands. I'm getting married in April, I might still dodge that bullet  :shifty:

PDH

Quote from: Maladict on February 27, 2020, 03:30:59 PM
First case in the Netherlands. I'm getting married in April, I might still dodge that bullet  :shifty:

You could have just said "maybe later"
I have come to believe that the whole world is an enigma, a harmless enigma that is made terrible by our own mad attempt to interpret it as though it had an underlying truth.
-Umberto Eco

-------
"I'm pretty sure my level of depression has nothing to do with how much of a fucking asshole you are."

-CdM

viper37

U.S. workers without protective gear assisted coronavirus evacuees, HHS whistleblower says

QuoteOfficials at the Department of Health and Human Services sent more than a dozen workers to receive the first Americans evacuated from Wuhan, China, the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak, without proper training for infection control or appropriate protective gear, according to a whistleblower complaint.

The workers did not show symptoms of infection and were not tested for the virus, according to lawyers for the whistleblower, a senior HHS official based in Washington who oversees workers at the Administration for Children and Families, a unit within HHS.

The whistleblower is seeking federal protection, alleging she was unfairly and improperly reassigned after raising concerns about the safety of these workers to HHS officials, including those within the office of Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar. She was told Feb. 19 that if she does not accept the new position in 15 days, which is March 5, she would be terminated.

The whistleblower has decades of experience in the field, received two HHS department awards from Azar last year and has received the highest performance evaluations, her lawyers said.
[...]

How nice.
I don't do meditation.  I drink alcohol to relax, like normal people.

If Microsoft Excel decided to stop working overnight, the world would practically end.

dps

Our tax dollars at work.  And leftists wonder why I'm against giving more power to the government.

DGuller

Quote from: dps on February 27, 2020, 07:57:40 PM
Our tax dollars at work.  And leftists wonder why I'm against giving more power to the government.
I don't wonder.  The right has been very successful at sabotaging the government, pointing to predictable problems that result from the government being sabotaged, and then convincing the critical thinkers among us to support them sabotaging the government some more.  The most effective way to convince people to be enthusiastically stupid is to make them think they're being smart and discerning.

Razgovory

Quote from: dps on February 27, 2020, 07:57:40 PM
Our tax dollars at work.  And leftists wonder why I'm against giving more power to the government.

:rolleyes:

Republican incompetence is not a good enough reason to weaken a the government during a national emergency.
I've given it serious thought. I must scorn the ways of my family, and seek a Japanese woman to yield me my progeny. He shall live in the lands of the east, and be well tutored in his sacred trust to weave the best traditions of Japan and the Sacred South together, until such time as he (or, indeed his house, which will periodically require infusion of both Southern and Japanese bloodlines of note) can deliver to the South it's independence, either in this world or in space.  -Lettow April of 2011

Raz is right. -MadImmortalMan March of 2017

mongers

Now it's getting serious:

http://feeds.reuters.com/~r/Reuters/worldNews/~3/je-S9cFfJ2M/cycling-uae-tour-canceled-after-positive-coronavirus-tests-idUSKCN20L333

Quote
Cycling: UAE Tour canceled after positive coronavirus tests

The final two stages of the UAE Tour, which is featuring some of the world's leading riders, has been canceled due to two Italian riders testing positive for coronavirus, the Abu Dhabi Sports Council said on Thursday.


:(

What has been going on in Italy, apparently undetected until recently, as it seems to be the source for no end of European infections.
"We have it in our power to begin the world over again"

grumbler

Quote from: dps on February 27, 2020, 07:57:40 PM
Our tax dollars at work.  And leftists wonder why I'm against giving more power to the government.

Leftists probably wonder why on earth you think that the Trump administration is leftist.  It is the right that currently seeks to give the government more power.  They just want more government power to regulate everyone's morality, rather than more government power to regulate everyone's paycheck.
The future is all around us, waiting, in moments of transition, to be born in moments of revelation. No one knows the shape of that future or where it will take us. We know only that it is always born in pain.   -G'Kar

Bayraktar!