Coronavirus Sars-CoV-2/Covid-19 Megathread

[Zanza]

Countries like Israel, Canada, Australia etc. get all their vaccine so far from the EU. If the EU would now stop exporting it would leave these countries without a realistic source for vaccines in the short term. Would create a lot of bad will internationally. However, not being able to provide for EU citizens creates a lot of bad will domestically. If we go by virtually all of human history, the domestic concerns will outweigh international cooperation...

[Zanza]

The article 16 thing is particularly silly.

[Sheilbh]

Countries like Israel, Canada, Australia etc. get all their vaccine so far from the EU. If the EU would now stop exporting it would leave these countries without a realistic source for vaccines in the short term. Would create a lot of bad will internationally. However, not being able to provide for EU citizens creates a lot of bad will domestically. If we go by virtually all of human history, the domestic concerns will outweigh international cooperation...

The other issue which may weigh domestically is how it impacts the companies developing this stuff like BionTech. For example my understanding is India and South Africa had raised with the WTO basically taking the IP behind vaccines (all of which are being partially manufactured in India especially) for their generics manufacturers because of the nature of the pandemic and the vulnerability of supply to the developing world especially. I think they explicitly said export restrictions would be something they'd try and do it. I feel like it'd be a huge own goal for Europe to have developed and manufactured vaccines in unprecedented time only to have lost the IP and ended up competing with the Indian generics industry.

Edit: And I suppose on domestic concerns my fear would be whether European countries have got strong enough measures in place now - it's why I keep flagging the new variant, because it's spreading across Europe and it feels, from a distance, like the run up to the first wave where countries aren't quite clocking how serious a risk that is. I worry that we might see outbreaks like the current one in the UK, which started (in London and the South-East) during the November semi-lockdown.

[Iormlund]

What I'm reading is AZ was bound to do their reasonable best to deliver the vacines needed, or some such vague term. With the UK getting enough supplies but not the EU, one can argue they could do better.

Yes - a lot of this is stolen from a UK contract lawyer online and it may be different in Belgium. And a key point isn't whether they need to do better in general but do they need to do better under their agreement with the EU.

Basically the agreement says AZ will use commercially reasonable efforts for a company like AZ to develop and manufacture the vaccine in certain sites in the EU (including, under this agreement two sites in the UK). There's a little bit of ambiguity in that clause around whether the UK sites should be used for the initial deliveries or not. So the question is does AZ - which has developed and brought a vaccine to market in record time and is producing millions of doses - need to do better to meet the requirement of commercially reasonable efforts. I think it's really tough to argue.

That is interesting. As a non lawyer, that's not the way I read those sections at all.

The first one, concerning the initial doses, I read as the EU pushing AZ to build its capacity in the EU (I guess to avoid this kind of scenario).

The second one (5.4) reads to me as concerning quality and process validation. The EU wanted to restrict manufacturing to countries that fall under its oversight (UK plants being included as it just left and thus meets quality process standards). It also lists other manufacturers within Europe that it would approve of if AZ could not meet demand.

[Zanza]

From what I understood, the manufacturing of Biontech/Pfizer and Moderna's mRNA vaccines is actually rather hard to do which is why there is so few plants worldwide (only EU, US and Switzerland right now). So just having the IP of the vaccine might not be enough if the production process itself is hard to master. Sanofi now wa ts to ramp up production of the Biontech vaccine. But that vaccine, in its current iteration, has very complicated cold chain logistics. Not useful in India or Africa really.

[Zanza]

Edit: And I suppose on domestic concerns my fear would be whether European countries have got strong enough measures in place now - it's why I keep flagging the new variant, because it's spreading across Europe and it feels, from a distance, like the run up to the first wave where countries aren't quite clocking how serious a risk that is. I worry that we might see outbreaks like the current one in the UK, which started (in London and the South-East) during the November semi-lockdown.

In Germany the usual people are warning of the mutant variants (federal chancellery, national health institute, our foremost virologist etc.) and the same people as usual are asking for a quick end of the lockdown (liberal party, neonazi party, some state premiers etc.). So far the pitics were always a foul compromise, with lots of damage, but not hard enough restrictions to stop mass deaths. I guess the reaction to the mutants will be more of the same here...

[Sheilbh]

That is interesting. As a non lawyer, that's not the way I read those sections at all.

I could be totally wrong.

The first one, concerning the initial doses, I read as the EU pushing AZ to build its capacity in the EU (I guess to avoid this kind of scenario).

The second one (5.4) reads to me as concerning quality and process validation. The EU wanted to restrict manufacturing to countries that fall under its oversight (UK plants being included as it just left and thus meets quality process standards). It also lists other manufacturers within Europe that it would approve of if AZ could not meet demand.

I agree on 5.4 - I think that's why the EU has done it and it makes sense. It's very common to want to control who is providing your goods or services and have a mechanism for going outside of that. On 5.1, for me the key is the bit that follows "shall" - and I slightly wonder when "following EU marketing authorization" kicks in: is that only for delivering the vaccine (my read), or does it actually qualify when AZ need to manufacture?

I feel like this is a lawyer's nightmare. I imagine everything was clear for everyone around the table when it was written down and now it's been published for the world to pore over and wonder about ambiguities that weren't ambiguous at the time

[viper37]

One silver lining is that vaccine manufacturing within our own countries will become more of a governmental priority

Thing is, that goes against decades of business practices by big pharma companies, that have been concentrating most of their production capabilities in emerging countries, basically China and India. Production in western countries has been steadily declining for years.

That's being the business practices or every industry for 40 years.

Well, the problem is, we have no Canadian drug company that can manufacture a vaccine as of now, and of does we could have, none are big enough to supply the entire Canadian market. 

Also, most of these companies were attracted by an extremely generous leftist proposal of "tax the locals, give away to the foreigners" policy, and after an initial return on investment, they all left, leaving token labs here.

Not that right wing parties ever brought it up... oh wait, the ADQ did.  We see where that led them

See, I don't think you should complain when you get exactly what you were aiming for by not voting for the smart ones

[Grey Fox]

I've voted for the ADQ in 2007.

[Admiral Yi]

Youse guys already talk about the J&J single shot vaccine?

Tough to keep up with this thread.

[Tamas]

In Hungary (while the usual grand syphoning of funds to usual circles goes unabated) small businesses receive next to no help during lockdown, as I understand.

As a result a growing number of restaurant/pub owners have started to declare they will open up despite fines, because they are on the brink of bankruptcy and have nothing to lose.

The state have opted to resolve the situation not by spending a little less on the contracts handled to oligarchs, but rather by making sure the owners DO have something to lose: in a decree coming to effect today, the fine for opening during the lockdown has been raised substantially, and the owners face an initial 6-months closing as punishment, increased to 12 months and banning the owner from running a catering establishment on subsequent breaches of lockdown.

[Syt]

Over here proprietors get 80% of last year's revenue revenue during the lockdown.

[Richard Hakluyt]

The EU commission has reversed the article 16 decision. I don't know what has got into them, someone should reassure them that their pensions are not at risk 

[Sheilbh]

The EU commission has reversed the article 16 decision. I don't know what has got into them, someone should reassure them that their pensions are not at risk 

Yeah VdL has spoken to Martin and Johnson (both sides agreeing that there should be no restrictions on the export of vaccines pursuant to contractual obligations - so no risk to Pfizer exported to the UK which is good). Everything seems to have calmed down a little which is good.

As I say I don't know how senior it would need to be or who would make these decisions, but it's felt erratic and slightly panicked to me like some on the Commission were just focusing on ass-covering or blame-shifting and sort of desperate to shift the narrative.

[ulmont]

Youse guys already talk about the J&J single shot vaccine?

I haven't seen much about the J&J in this thread, but from what I've seen elsewhere (66% against symptomatic at all, 85% against severe illness, 100% against hospitalization / death), it seems good enough for the community and is much easier to distribute.

What I think we'll also see is that doing J&J in a two-shot protocol (which they are still testing) works out about like the other two-shot protocols.

The reaction against the other strains isn't as good but then I think all of the vaccines are going to need to be tweaked for them.

Ultimately I think we're going to end up with at least several years of annual corona vaccinations, possibly indefinitely like the flu (but higher risk).