Trains, Banks and Public/Private Ownership - Prev.Predict UK Gen.Election Result

[mongers]

Well I don't buy that exit poll, I think some Tory voters now routinely lie to pollsters, I suspect conservatives have done 3-4% better than the poll suggests.

[Josquius]

I bet the Northern Irish are feeling a bit smug right now as the entire country frantically googles about Northern Irish politics.

[CountDeMoney]

If this ends up being the result, will May resign? It would be an incredible slap in her face

I dunno; worse things happen in other countries, like having more overall votes and still losing.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I have a pretty dim view of British polling so I'll wait a few hours.

[Agelastus]

I have a pretty dim view of British polling so I'll wait a few hours.

As noted, the Exit poll hasn't been out by more than 20 seats for any one party for the last several elections (at least back to 2001.)

The only real way this poll could be out is if they've picked the wrong polling stations/constituencies to work from; I actually don't think this is very likely.

[alfred russel]

David Cameron may have been a disaster as an actual leader, but he was a tremendous politician. May; not as much. Also, I've always thought the UK leans left, and the presence of a bunch of minor parties makes it hard to get a majority. They have also been in power for perhaps too long. Corbyn can only help them so much.

[Josquius]

Newcastle Central is first to declare.
2015 Labour won with 55%, 2017 they've won with 65%....promising.

Sunderland Central, a Brexit voting area, have also declared with +9% for Labour.

These are Labour safe areas so not representative but....hmm...

David Cameron may have been a disaster as an actual leader, but he was a tremendous politician. May; not as much. Also, I've always thought the UK leans left, and the presence of a bunch of minor parties makes it hard to get a majority. They have also been in power for perhaps too long. Corbyn can only help them so much.

It's the problem with the British system, the left wing vote is very split whilst the Tories pretty much own the right, especially now UKIP are gone.

[Agelastus]

Newcastle Central is first to declare.
2015 Labour won with 55%, 2017 they've won with 65%....promising.

Exit poll suggested this should have been 74%.

Sunderland Central, a Brexit voting area, have also declared with +9% for Labour.

Can't find this declaration anywhere - Houghton and Sunderland has declared, allegedly with a 3.5% swing Labour to Tory (which in this case is a nonsense figure because the Tories weren't in second place last time.)

Where's the Sunderland Central Declaration available?

[Josquius]

I was looking on Wikipedia, had heard one sunderland had declared and didn't know which. Guess it was vandalism

[Agelastus]

I was looking on Wikipedia, had heard one sunderland had declared and didn't know which. Guess it was vandalism

Sunderland Central now declared; Labour up 5000 roughly, Tories up 6000 - and UKIP only down 5000.

2.3% swing Labour to Conservative - again a fairly meaningless measure.

[Josquius]

Seems to be what was expected, the Kippers going over to the Tories. Wonder if anyone has done a calculation based on combining the UKIP and Tory vote.
Pretty good increase in turnout overall.

I remain worried but hopeful

[celedhring]

You guys should just use mass conscription like us and get done with the recount quickish. We'd be getting final results in Spain already. I want to go to bed 

[Agelastus]

Well, Tyr, from your "worried but hopeful" perspective it appears you may have some good news - so far the results have been following YouGov's NowCast very closely - and their prediction was 302 seats for the Tories.

https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/

[Josquius]

Labour did very well in Swindon. Really gave the Tories a run for their money.

I should sleep. Last night I couldn't sleep so I need it. I have work tomorrow. But channel 4s coverage is fun. They keep mocking the whole idea of this coverage and the uselessness of polls.

[jimmy olsen]

OK can we stop voting now, I note 26 have proffered an opinion and  someone else has posted in the 80-100, but no one over 100+.

So safe to say I'm the extreme outlier having gone for a 98 seat Tory majority.   

That was me. I just looked at a couple of recent polls and went with them. Looking at the exit polls today, that seems to have been a mistake.