What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

[OttoVonBismarck]

FWIW I don't think it unlikely that w/the GOP House we distribute less aid to Ukraine than we would have otherwise, but I don't want to just rush to assume the number will be $0. While the GOP has a strong nativist contingent, the votes we have already had on Ukraine funding show it has a significant number of foreign policy hawks who still want to hammer the Russians.

There is definitely some limit I think to how much we are going to just keep spending on Ukraine--and I think that is true even if the GOP hadn't taken the House.

[The Minsky Moment]

If I were the QAnon wing of the GOP Ukraine is not the very first fight I would pick.

Yes but if you were the QAnon wing of the GOP, you'd be a pack of idiots in a sack of crazy.

[OttoVonBismarck]

In terms of how will a small majority affect Republicans versus how it affected Democrats--it will largely be the same, right? Things that could have passed with a big majority won't necessarily be able to pass with a small one.

For the Democrats this was a number of progressive "dream" bills that either got watered down or never passed (the real meaning of that was a little low since none of them were ever going to pass the Senate.) With a Democrat President it is even less meaningful what "active" legislation the Republicans pass since Biden can veto it even if it somehow got through the Dem Senate. But things that are undermined by a narrow majority will be impeachment--with a small majority I think it is much less likely because it will need almost 100% of Republican Congressmen. I think holding Medicare/Social Security hostage with the debt ceiling is also way less likely--for one, McCarthy never seemed that warm to that in the first place, the fear was the crazies in his caucus would basically force him to do it like they did with Boehner, with a narrow majority it gets harder because moderate Republicans can just discharge debt ceiling increases--and they likely would, while a discharge is rare, the last one was to reinstate the Export-Import Bank, and 60+ Republicans broke rank to discharge. I'll be surprised if you wouldn't have a lot of discharge vote defectors over a spurious debt limit battle.

That does not mean there won't be any debt limit battle, I'm just saying I don't think enough Republicans will agree to draw the battle lines at "gutting Medicare and Social Security." They may draw it at some cuts like they did with Obama, though.

[The Minsky Moment]

He's on record saying it won't be a blank check.

Which means what, exactly?

Literally it would mean a check that is filled in.  But with what number?  Tens of billions?  Tens of millions? Tens?  Tennis balls?

Less than reassuring.

[Admiral Yi]

Yes but if you were the QAnon wing of the GOP, you'd be a pack of idiots in a sack of crazy.

I get the impression from both Jim Jordan and Josh Hawley that they know how to play politics game.

[Eddie Teach]

They're not in control though.

[Admiral Yi]

They're not in control though.

Neither is any other faction.

[The Minsky Moment]

Yes but if you were the QAnon wing of the GOP, you'd be a pack of idiots in a sack of crazy.

I get the impression from both Jim Jordan and Josh Hawley that they know how to play politics game.

Hawley maybe although despite his cunning he seems to be nowhere in terms of presidential ambitions.

Jim Jordan can wear a suit and speak in complete sentences but that seems to be his limit.

[Barrister]

Yes but if you were the QAnon wing of the GOP, you'd be a pack of idiots in a sack of crazy.

I get the impression from both Jim Jordan and Josh Hawley that they know how to play politics game.

Hawley maybe although despite his cunning he seems to be nowhere in terms of presidential ambitions.

Jim Jordan can wear a suit and speak in complete sentences but that seems to be his limit.

Hawley seems to me to be trying to come across as the thinking-person's Trump.

I don't think there's any demand for such a candidate, but that's what he's going for.

[grumbler]

Yes but if you were the QAnon wing of the GOP, you'd be a pack of idiots in a sack of crazy.

You forgot "diving headfirst into the sea of stupid."

[grumbler]

BTW, as Jimmy Kimmel pointed out, Trump running again is a concession that he lost in 2020.  If, as he claims, he won in 2020, then he has completed two terms and is ineligible to run in 2024.

[The Minsky Moment]

BTW, as Jimmy Kimmel pointed out, Trump running again is a concession that he lost in 2020.  If, as he claims, he won in 2020, then he has completed two terms and is ineligible to run in 2024.

Th fatal flaw in that line of reasoning is that it assumes Trump has any respect for the Constitution, or any rules that might constrain him.

There's just nothing to be gained by descending into the funhouse mirror world of Trump's mind.

[Jacob]

Interesting thread on American Christian nationalism - two main current versions, as well as historical ones: https://twitter.com/PMatzko/status/1594726128975056898

[OttoVonBismarck]

Oddly enough some prominent qAnon forums and Telegram channels apparently are also mad that he is running again because they agree with the analysis that it confirms he did not win in 2020, and confirms that he is not, actually, President right now (most Q believers still believe Trump is secretly the real President still and is only allowing Biden to pretend to be the President for his eventual unleashing of "the storm" to expose all the pedophiles and adrenochrome harvesters in government."

[Jacob]

I guess they prefer Trump in the role of a hidden Shi'a imam - a righteous but ineffable source of moral correctness they can invoke at convenience, according to their theological needs of the time.