What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

[Jacob]

I'm not sure his motivations matter. Whether he is trying to create narratives or just amplifying ones he picks up on, result is the same. More content that can be used by morons to justify idiotic positions.

Agreed. I'm less interested in the finer details of Murdoch's motivations and more concerned with the results of his actions.

[Sheilbh]

I'm not sure his motivations matter. Whether he is trying to create narratives or just amplifying ones he picks up on, result is the same. More content that can be used by morons to justify idiotic positions.

I think what matters is the effect it has on the left. I think Murdoch plays a similar, unhelpful role on the left that universities or "Hollywood" have on the right.

It can just be a coping mechanism/crutch that prevents self-examination. But I think the bigger issue is that I think it leads to too much focus on the discourse and messaging. If you think politics is largely shaped by a svengali like press baron then I think that leads to different worries and conclusions than if you think the media is shaped by politics because it's more like a mirror trying to reflect back to its readers/give them what they want. It's the conversation we have had many times about the Democrats (but also, maybe, Labour a bit) - is the key thing the message or the politics.

Obvously there's a bit of both but my view is that it's far more the latter - especially with Murdoch.

[Threviel]

This is a great opportunity to replace Biden with another Democrat contender that will surely be a two-termer. Win against Trump almost guaranteed if its the right candidate and for the next election Trump will run again and splinter the Republicans one way or another and its another win for the Democrats.

If Biden runs he might become incapacitated or die or whatever during next term, 4 years is a long time when over 80, so the vice-president would be extra important this time. If a good one and the stars align they might become a two-term president.

All in all good news for the Democrats, but Biden also running is more high-risk in my mind.

[alfred russel]

I don't see an upside to DeSantis running.  At least not for him.  He runs and either 1) he loses or 2) He wins and Trump forms his own party.  Trump has already threatened to destroy the GOP with a third party, there is zero chance he wouldn't go through with it out of spite if he loses a primary.  Rhonda Santis has to be making the same calculation.

If you are in the discussion to be president of the US, you are probably a psychopath dedicated to achieving that goal. Maybe that is overly harsh, but you aren't normal.

If he runs for the nomination he is the most likely GOP nominee. Yes Trump will likely want to undermine him in the general election and that will seriously hurt him if he does, but DeSantis isn't going to become president without rolling the dice at some point. Biden isn't a strong incumbent, in 4 years DeSantis won't have an office like the governorship of florida to run from, won't have his success of 2022 as a tailwind, and could be shut down by a republican incumbent.

I also doubt Trump will form an actual third party or get on the ballot as a 3rd party candidate. Those things require hard work and Trump doesn't seem inclined to undertake hard work.

[Valmy]

All you guys have to do is agree the amount of the bet and who will hold it (I recommend Yi if he isn't going to get a piece of the action).

I am not really a betting man. I wouldn't even bet that Ohio State will beat Indiana in football. But hey I guess if it is just for funs I can throw in a few bucks.

Also the bet would have to contingent on both candidates actually officially announcing and participating in the Iowa Caucus. So I wouldn't want to put any cash down until one or the other winning is actually a possibility.

[Josquius]

This is a great opportunity to replace Biden with another Democrat contender that will surely be a two-termer. Win against Trump almost guaranteed if its the right candidate and for the next election Trump will run again and splinter the Republicans one way or another and its another win for the Democrats.

If Biden runs he might become incapacitated or die or whatever during next term, 4 years is a long time when over 80, so the vice-president would be extra important this time. If a good one and the stars align they might become a two-term president.

All in all good news for the Democrats, but Biden also running is more high-risk in my mind.

The next election sure but do we really see trump living till the one after?

[Tonitrus]

This is a great opportunity to replace Biden with another Democrat contender that will surely be a two-termer. Win against Trump almost guaranteed if its the right candidate and for the next election Trump will run again and splinter the Republicans one way or another and its another win for the Democrats.

If Biden runs he might become incapacitated or die or whatever during next term, 4 years is a long time when over 80, so the vice-president would be extra important this time. If a good one and the stars align they might become a two-term president.

All in all good news for the Democrats, but Biden also running is more high-risk in my mind.

The problem the Dems will have in replacing Biden, is that they would need a well-known, viable candidate.  I can think of a few viable unknowns...but being known is usually the most important thing nowadays.

If he does run, there would need to be a very strong pretext to dump Kamala Harris.  After all, he ran on the pledge of having an inclusive running mate on his ticket...he cannot then dump same without causing a major row inside the party.

[Valmy]

This is a great opportunity to replace Biden with another Democrat contender that will surely be a two-termer. Win against Trump almost guaranteed if its the right candidate and for the next election Trump will run again and splinter the Republicans one way or another and its another win for the Democrats.

If Biden runs he might become incapacitated or die or whatever during next term, 4 years is a long time when over 80, so the vice-president would be extra important this time. If a good one and the stars align they might become a two-term president.

All in all good news for the Democrats, but Biden also running is more high-risk in my mind.

The problem the Dems will have in replacing Biden, is that they would need a well-known, viable candidate.  I can think of a few viable unknowns...but being known is usually the most important thing nowadays.

If he does run, there would need to be a very strong pretext to dump Kamala Harris.  After all, he ran on the pledge of having an inclusive running mate on his ticket...he cannot then dump same without causing a major row inside the party.

The voters will dump Harris in the Primary.

That governor of Pennsylvania seems cool.

[Tonitrus]

The voters will dump Harris in the Primary.

That governor of Pennsylvania seems cool.

Primary voters don't decide that. 

I kinda like the governor of North Carolina.  He has a kinda gravitas.

[grumbler]

The voters will dump Harris in the Primary.

If Joe runs, Harris can only be dumped in the primary if Joe is dumped.  She will not run against him.

Gretchen Whitmer has a bit of name recognition on account of the neoNazi conspiracy to kidnap and murder her because vaccines.  I don't think her resume adds up to presidential candidate, though.  Pity.  She's young, charismatic, and has a track record national Democrats would like:  moderate on the issues, but firmly committed to the core democratic vote-getters.

[Zoupa]

I predict a Biden-Trump rematch, and another Biden win.

[Admiral Yi]

Biden's running on fumes.  He'll stand down.  He knows he performed a vital service.

[Gups]

Whatever happened to the promised publication of Trump's tax returns? Are they still being audited 6 years later?

[Sophie Scholl]

Whatever happened to the promised publication of Trump's tax returns? Are they still being audited 6 years later?

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https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/10/irs-asks-supreme-court-not-to-block-congress-from-getting-trumps-tax-records.html

[Habbaku]

Biden's running on fumes.  He'll stand down.  He knows he performed a vital service.

I think you're right and hope you're right. I always assumed Biden was one and done. I don't think he even really wanted to serve the single term.