JOHN McAFEE: Here's why US intelligence is failing

Started by viper37, March 29, 2016, 03:30:41 PM

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viper37

Long article

He does raise interesting points, but I'm not sure he has a complete picture either.

Sure, you can predict a lot of things by analyzing patterns in communications, as outlined in his document.  But any such kind of model has its flaws, wether a flaw in the model itself or a human error in interpreting the data.

I believe you would still require human intel to validate such data.  And besides, if you're dealing with low-tech people, like Al-Queida in Bin Laden's days that weren't using any cellphones, you are essentially fucked if you rely only on data mining.

The US, and other agencies, are most likely not investing enough in this kind of intelligence, but to say they should rely solely on that is taking it a step too far, imho.
I don't do meditation.  I drink alcohol to relax, like normal people.

If Microsoft Excel decided to stop working overnight, the world would practically end.

CountDeMoney

QuoteThe Chinese, in stark contrast, by their very actions and through what hackers on the Dark Web have gathered, couldn't care less about what individuals are saying to one another or directing one another to do. They view governments and other agencies as entities that have an embodied existence of their own and that they manifest actions and movements as a single organism.

If this view is correct, then data of a higher order is required. This is similar to the way physicians, when diagnosing a patient's ailment, do not concern themselves with the chemical communications between individual cells in the patient's body; they concern themselves with symptoms that transcend anything a few cells could manifest — body temperature, coughing, sneezing, internal bleeding, etc.

The Chinese, then, must be concerned with metaphorically similar signs within governments and agencies. These signs are called "patterns."

Interesting metaphor, but Chinese strategic thought in regards to intelligence-gathering has never been about identifying patterns, nuances, or any other such themes-within-a-meta-theme.  They have yet to approach it at such levels of sophistication.

MadImmortalMan

I haven't read it yet, but is this the same John McAfee who wrote the antivirus software and then went hiding from the feds in Belize?
"Stability is destabilizing." --Hyman Minsky

"Complacency can be a self-denying prophecy."
"We have nothing to fear but lack of fear itself." --Larry Summers

CountDeMoney

No.

He was on the run from Belize.   :lol:

Totally different guy.

Razgovory

Quote from: CountDeMoney on March 29, 2016, 09:00:56 PM
No.

He was on the run from Belize.   :lol:

Totally different guy.

The one that makes drugs and shoves them up his ass.  Why would we take his advice on anything?
I've given it serious thought. I must scorn the ways of my family, and seek a Japanese woman to yield me my progeny. He shall live in the lands of the east, and be well tutored in his sacred trust to weave the best traditions of Japan and the Sacred South together, until such time as he (or, indeed his house, which will periodically require infusion of both Southern and Japanese bloodlines of note) can deliver to the South it's independence, either in this world or in space.  -Lettow April of 2011

Raz is right. -MadImmortalMan March of 2017

viper37

Quote from: MadImmortalMan on March 29, 2016, 08:55:25 PM
I haven't read it yet, but is this the same John McAfee who wrote the antivirus software and then went hiding from the feds in Belize?
the same paranoid guy, yes.
Don't know if it's true about the drugs, he says he it ain't, and there's been no charges laid on him.
I don't do meditation.  I drink alcohol to relax, like normal people.

If Microsoft Excel decided to stop working overnight, the world would practically end.

Brazen

Quote from: viper37 on March 29, 2016, 03:30:41 PM
I believe you would still require human intel to validate such data.  And besides, if you're dealing with low-tech people, like Al-Queida in Bin Laden's days that weren't using any cellphones, you are essentially fucked if you rely only on data mining.
Data mining and predictive analysis was invaluable in analysing and dismantling Bin Laden's network (including cellphone traffic), and combined with extensive surveillance helped track him down. Obviously capturing and torturing his trusted courier extracted the last details. So I guess that's human intel verifying the data.

garbon

Quote from: Razgovory on March 29, 2016, 09:06:40 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on March 29, 2016, 09:00:56 PM
No.

He was on the run from Belize.   :lol:

Totally different guy.

The one that makes drugs and shoves them up his ass.  Why would we take his advice on anything?

He is running for President.
"I've never been quite sure what the point of a eunuch is, if truth be told. It seems to me they're only men with the useful bits cut off."
I drank because I wanted to drown my sorrows, but now the damned things have learned to swim.

viper37

Quote from: Brazen on March 30, 2016, 09:32:43 AM
Quote from: viper37 on March 29, 2016, 03:30:41 PM
I believe you would still require human intel to validate such data.  And besides, if you're dealing with low-tech people, like Al-Queida in Bin Laden's days that weren't using any cellphones, you are essentially fucked if you rely only on data mining.
Data mining and predictive analysis was invaluable in analysing and dismantling Bin Laden's network (including cellphone traffic), and combined with extensive surveillance helped track him down. Obviously capturing and torturing his trusted courier extracted the last details. So I guess that's human intel verifying the data.
thanks for the info :)
I don't do meditation.  I drink alcohol to relax, like normal people.

If Microsoft Excel decided to stop working overnight, the world would practically end.

The Brain

Quote from: Brazen on March 30, 2016, 09:32:43 AM
Quote from: viper37 on March 29, 2016, 03:30:41 PM
I believe you would still require human intel to validate such data.  And besides, if you're dealing with low-tech people, like Al-Queida in Bin Laden's days that weren't using any cellphones, you are essentially fucked if you rely only on data mining.
Data mining and predictive analysis was invaluable in analysing and dismantling Bin Laden's network (including cellphone traffic), and combined with extensive surveillance helped track him down. Obviously capturing and torturing his trusted courier extracted the last details. So I guess that's human intel verifying the data.

You don't always have a decade.
Women want me. Men want to be with me.

alfred russel

Quote from: viper37 on March 29, 2016, 03:30:41 PM

He does raise interesting points, but I'm not sure he has a complete picture either.


So many words, but not a single mention of common core.  :hmm:
They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety.

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I'm embarrassed. I've been making the mistake of associating with you. It won't happen again. :)
-garbon, February 23, 2014