Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Jacob]

And I am expecting it to win because of the general British attitude, also showcased on the forum: "well, might as well stay I suppose" vs "WE MUST LEAVE, MAKE BRITAIN GREAT AGAIN, FREEEEDOM!!!!!!"

You're a sorta half empty type of guy, aren't you. 

[Tamas]Half empty? Luxury! Back in Hungary our glasses are only filled to one fifth, if we're lucky![/Tamas]

At least you had a glass...

[celedhring]

And I am expecting it to win because of the general British attitude, also showcased on the forum: "well, might as well stay I suppose" vs "WE MUST LEAVE, MAKE BRITAIN GREAT AGAIN, FREEEEDOM!!!!!!"

You're a sorta half empty type of guy, aren't you. 

[Tamas]Half empty? Luxury! Back in Hungary our glasses are only filled to one fifth, if we're lucky![/Tamas]

At least you had a glass...

Yeah, only Orban's cronies get to drink from a glass in Hungary.

[The Larch]

And I am expecting it to win because of the general British attitude, also showcased on the forum: "well, might as well stay I suppose" vs "WE MUST LEAVE, MAKE BRITAIN GREAT AGAIN, FREEEEDOM!!!!!!"

You're a sorta half empty type of guy, aren't you. 

[Tamas]Half empty? Luxury! Back in Hungary our glasses are only filled to one fifth, if we're lucky![/Tamas]

At least you had a glass...

Yeah, only Orban's cronies get to drink from a glass in Hungary.

The rest of the people have to lick the puddles on the road...

[Zanza]

79% of Germans against Brexit.

13% of Germans are for Germany leaving the EU.

[Duque de Bragança]

No single market for you!, says Herr Stasi 2.0.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/10/no-single-market-access-for-uk-after-brexit-wolfgang-schauble-says

Tabloid-friendly reformulation!

[Tamas]

  Screw you guys. I hope I am wrong. I don't want to mess with visas and shit.

[The Minsky Moment]

It was rather delusional to think that Britain could keep access to the market while leaving the EU. If the EU allowed that well the whole thing might collapse.

Would be very hard for the Eurozone countries to split . . .
But: There is definitely going to be a lobby to take a hard line with the UK pour encourager les autres.
Even if that doesn't end up the majority view it will complicate negotiations.

Again - big time risk, uncertainty, lots of transitional ugliness.

Brits may be masters at muddling through but this is a useful reminder that there are Germans on the other side of the table.  Muddling through isn't their strong point.

[Zanza]

Even if every country was in favor of Britain getting access to the Single Market, the very nature of EU deals is horsetrading and everybody would try to get something out of negotiations like that. It will be tough and long drawn out negotiations, that's for sure. And some countries need referendums for deals like that these days, e.g. the Dutch. What if they vote against British access to the common market like they did with Ukraine recently?

[Crazy_Ivan80]

And I am expecting it to win because of the general British attitude, also showcased on the forum: "well, might as well stay I suppose" vs "WE MUST LEAVE, MAKE BRITAIN GREAT AGAIN, FREEEEDOM!!!!!!"

You're a sorta half empty type of guy, aren't you. 

[Tamas]Half empty? Luxury! Back in Hungary our glasses are only filled to one fifth, if we're lucky![/Tamas]

At least you had a glass...

Yeah, only Orban's cronies get to drink from a glass in Hungary.

The rest of the people have to lick the puddles on the road...

at least they had puddles. and roads!

[Richard Hakluyt]

Even if every country was in favor of Britain getting access to the Single Market, the very nature of EU deals is horsetrading and everybody would try to get something out of negotiations like that. It will be tough and long drawn out negotiations, that's for sure. And some countries need referendums for deals like that these days, e.g. the Dutch. What if they vote against British access to the common market like they did with Ukraine recently?

Exactly. But the remain crew keep on promising us Armageddon, which is quite attractive, or at least interesting.

If only they were honest about it, an exit vote will lead to vast numbers of conferences with grey-suited continental bureaucrats about bananas and cucumbers.............I'm sure that faced with such tedium the remain vote would quickly climb to 60%.

[Sheilbh]

And I am expecting it to win because of the general British attitude, also showcased on the forum: "well, might as well stay I suppose" vs "WE MUST LEAVE, MAKE BRITAIN GREAT AGAIN, FREEEEDOM!!!!!!"

This is sort of true. There is no pro-European voice that I can think of. The most positive cases are either the EU has fundamental problems but the benefits outweigh them or we should stay to try and fundamentally reform/change the EU.

As I've said my remain vote is purely pragmatic. I consider it a vote for the union and I want Scotland to stay with us. If I felt I could I'd vote leave.

No single market for you!, says Dr. Nein.

So we've reached the Osborne says no currency union stage of the campaign.

Screw you guys. I hope I am wrong. I don't want to mess with visas and shit.

This needs to be laid to rest. All EU citizens living in the UK will receive permanent leave to stay and no difference to any of their legal rights as are. Every prominent Leave campaigner (UKIP, Johnson, Gove, Stuart etc) has said this.

Again - big time risk, uncertainty, lots of transitional ugliness.

Here's the issue in this campaign:

Exactly. But the remain crew keep on promising us Armageddon, which is quite attractive, or at least interesting.

As someone who wants Remain to win I'm hoping the natural conservatism of voters wins out. They never vote for radical change. As someone who wants radical change....

Incidentally the turnout figures from Labour look awful. So far 70% of Tories plan to vote, for Labour identifying voters it's only 50% and only 50% of them know what Labour's position is. Corbyn may be getting his hope after all.

Speaking of which a couple of pretty prominent Labour MPs came out for Leave today. Dennis Skinner, which was no surprise, and John Mann in the Sun:

OUT AND PROUD 'It's time to break free from the EU and take back control of our lives'
Senior Labour MP urges working class voters to lead UK to Brexit
BY JOHN MANN, LABOUR MP FOR BASSETLAW  9th June 2016, 10:30 pm

THE Labour Party is nothing if it can't represent working class interests.

But too few Labour MPs are campaigning for Britain to leave the European Union on June 23.

Why? Because in Westminster people are inculcated into Westminster establishment politics too much.

And people have been terrified about talking about immigration.

But on polling day they are going to get a big shock across the country.

They are going to get a big shock about how Labour councillors vote, they will get a big shock about how Labour members vote. And it shouldn't come as a shock how many Labour voters will vote.

Because a people's revolution is under way. This is about returning power to the people.

At the heart of our problems, we have at all times now one arm tied behind our back by the European Union and there is nothing we can do about it.

Nowhere is that clearer than with the free movement of people, which has, is, and will continue to undermine pay and conditions in working class communities.

It is not sustainable to have 300,000 new people added to the population every year.

It has created two kinds of people in this country: the people who gain from this and the people who lose out.

Migration into the UK is in the hundreds of thousands despite PM's promises to cut numbers

If you live in London and you want a cheap nanny, and a gardener and a cheaper plumber you can get really nice, really good people cheaper than you could before and you can go to a different restaurant every night and eat a different kind of food.

In the North of England, in the Midlands, in South Wales, people do not get those benefits. They get the problems.

The speed of change is worsening inequality.... that is not going to change unless we leave the EU

In areas like mine the schools have got huge numbers of new children coming in. They do an absolutely brilliant job, as does the health service dealing with new people, but it costs them money, it shifts their expertise and resource. It has an impact and the impact is huge.

So the speed of change is worsening inequality in the country.

And that is not going to change unless we leave the EU.

I don't want to live in a country with 80-90 million people living in it. I don't want everything to be one big city. And the only way you can deal with that is by controlling borders.

There is another side to it. Many Labour colleagues say we should stay to protect workers' rights.

But the poorest in society are the ones who have been hit by agency workers and zero hours contracts already. They are the ones who have been hit by labour flexibility with so many workers coming into the country.

The reason I've concluded that we have to come out is it's impossible to change the EU from the inside.

David Cameron couldn't even get agreement on child benefit being stopped for people here with children abroad. Even something as absurd as that cannot be changed because EU structures won't allow it.

People want control over their own lives. They don't want people at a distance controlling their lives anymore.

Labour MPs also say they don't want to campaign to leave because they don't want to be on the same side as Nigel Farage and John Redwood.

But this is about each family in Britain. It's about you. It's not about me, Farage or David Cameron.

It's about what kind of country we want to live in in 20 or 30 years' time.

Do we want to live in a country with another 10, 20 million people living in it? Do we want to live in a country where big business can do a deal with the European Commission and we just have to deal with it?

Or do we want to live in a country where power is shifted back to this country and our Parliament but actually as well beyond that back to local people?

So if you are a Labour voter you can proudly vote on Labour values to the leave the European Union.

You are voting for fairness, you are voting for rights at work, you are voting for the NHS.

And you are voting for a country that is not increasingly run by big business in co-operation with the European Commission.

Take others along to the polling station with you. Let's see a record turnout in working class communities.

For what it's worth I've seen Labour people saying they're worried about how much of their vote they think is going for Leave and from friends who've been canvassing (out of London) they're saying the undecideds are breaking for Leave.

But we're 13 days out and that was roughly the point when the 51-49 poll came out in Scotland....

[Martinus]

Screw you guys. I hope I am wrong. I don't want to mess with visas and shit.

This needs to be laid to rest. All EU citizens living in the UK will receive permanent leave to stay and no difference to any of their legal rights as are. Every prominent Leave campaigner (UKIP, Johnson, Gove, Stuart etc) has said this.

Well, that sucks. The only silver lining of Brexit to me was the prospect of Tamas getting deported. Now, I won't even have that.

[Sheilbh]

[The Brain]

Screw you guys. I hope I am wrong. I don't want to mess with visas and shit.

This needs to be laid to rest. All EU citizens living in the UK will receive permanent leave to stay and no difference to any of their legal rights as are. Every prominent Leave campaigner (UKIP, Johnson, Gove, Stuart etc) has said this.

Well, that sucks. The only silver lining of Brexit to me was the prospect of Tamas getting deported. Now, I won't even have that.

Don't touch my Tampax!

[Josquius]

This needs to be laid to rest. All EU citizens living in the UK will receive permanent leave to stay and no difference to any of their legal rights as are. Every prominent Leave campaigner (UKIP, Johnson, Gove, Stuart etc) has said this.

How will that work?
Some sort of one off registration and get a permanent resident visa?
Thats some sanity from the leavers at least.