Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Syt]

turlingdrome

[Sheilbh]

With some appropriately East Anglian protesters

Thrilled to discover that this is actually Prot-on-Prot nonsense.

It's a group of Anglo-Catholics from the CofE doing their bells and smells and statues stuff (which is cultural appropriation) being protested by some staunch East Anglian non-conformists

[Tamas]

The Bank of England has warned that the cost of living crisis could plunge the economy into recession this year, as it increased interest rates to tackle soaring inflation that is expected to rise above 10% in the coming months.

Threadneedle Street's monetary policy committee (MPC) voted by a majority to raise its base rate from 0.75% to 1%, lifting the cost of borrowing to the highest level in 13 years, as it sounded the alarm over the risks from spiralling inflation exacerbated by Russia's war in Ukraine.

Despite the growing risks to the economy as households endured one of the biggest annual declines in their income for decades, the Bank said a quarter-point rise was warranted to block persistently high inflation from taking hold, as the shock from soaring energy costs rippled through the global economy.

Bolded the weird bit in the Guardian I saw them mention earlier in the morning as well. Why do they consider rate hikes controversial in a lower income higher inflation setting? Is their understanding that people are supposed to power through such periods via credit card debt which is gonna' get more expensive?

[Sheilbh]

Powering through on credit card debt is the British way

It is weird to raise rates when you're expecting/warning of the possibility of a recession. Similarly it's sort of weird that our main way of stopping inflation is to try and cause a recession. But when you put the two together it's very tough for the central banks right now - though I think in part this is a consequence of them getting perhaps too much credit for the 90s-2000s so they're now seen as possibly more powerful and influential than they are (though they are powerful and influential).

On the other hand, again, from Resolution Foundation - we've been in a very strange place for the last ten years:


Luckily the government took full advantage of that decade of record low rates to invest in infrastructure etc to make sure Britain's ready to face any downturn

[Duque de Bragança]

On th other hand, again, from Resolution Foundation - we've been in a very strange place for the last ten years:


Luckily the government took full advantage of that decade of record low rates to invest in infrastructure etc to make sure Britain's ready to face any downturn

[Josquius]

The "treating the national economy like household finances" approach is really biting in so many ways.

[Tamas]

Central banks are fucked. They built the post 2008 recovery on printing money and pouring it into institutions and by that into asset prices. Now they cannot undo the inflation crisis without unraveling the house of cards they built on top of the asset bubble.

Which means they will let inflation run only mildly checked, so that way once again the poor can foot the bill for them staying on top.

[Sheilbh]

Pre-census data but interesting piece on demographic shifts from schools. Basically minorities are moving into the outer boroughs and suburbs of London, which are becoming much more diverse - this is probably a combination of being priced out of inner boroughs into the suburbs, but also becoming more middle class and choosing suburbia (especially areas of Kent with good grammar schools). Meanwhile previously very diverse inner boroughs are becoming more white British, almost certainly because of gentrification.

Along with the wider city-dwellers moving into areas with more outdoor spaces/WFH home demographic shifts I think it's probably going to have an impact on our politics either by opening up more of the South-East to Labour, or (more likely) the Tories doing more to attract minority voters - or maybe minority voters just start voting like white British voters breaking down by education, age etc which seems to be what's happening in Kent and Essex

This is from Politics Home so focuses on the constituency impact but obviously, more going on:

London Suburbs And Home Counties More Ethnically Diverse, Inner London More White Since 2010, Data Shows
Chaminda Jayanetti
@cjayanetti
6 min read04 May

Parts of outer London and the Home Counties have become significantly more ethnically diverse since 2010, while areas of inner London have become whiter, according to school population data analysed by PoliticsHome.

Parliamentary constituencies in north east London and parts of Essex and Kent are among those to have seen a significant decline in the share of local school pupils who are classed as 'white British', with ethnic minority communities both priced out of inner London and choosing to move to the suburbs as they become more middle class.

Seats in northern cities such as Leeds, Manchester and Newcastle have also seen major increases in diversity over the last 12 years. By contrast, white-dominated areas away from major cities have seen much smaller changes in school demographics, while some ethnically diverse seats in inner London have actually become 'whiter' over time.

The figures are drawn from the Department for Education's annual schools census data, which gives demographic details of the intake of every school in England, and comes prior to the publication of the 2021 full UK census data later this year.

PoliticsHome stripped out schools with very small intakes or no ethnicity data, and then compared the average 'white British' share of school populations in each constituency in England in 2010 and 2021.
Related

The biggest change occurred in Dagenham and Rainham in east London, where the average white British share fell from 56% to 32% in 11 years, and in nearby Romford, where the white British school population plunged from 77% to 53%.

Other outer London seats showing similar levels of change include Barking, Sutton and Cheam, and Carshalton and Wallington. In Uxbridge and South Ruislip – Boris Johnson's seat – the white British share fell from 57 to 36%.

In the Home Counties, large increases in school-age ethnic diversity have occurred in Thurrock, Dartford, Watford and Wokingham, and further afield in city seats such as Blackley and Broughton in Greater Manchester, Leicester West, Leeds Central, Coventry South and Newcastle Central.

Sacha Gosine is 42 and of Indo-Caribbean descent. He grew up in Dartford, where he is now an opposition Labour councillor. "In my school, there was one black kid who was two years older than me. Apart from that, there was a speckle of British Asian as well," he said. "Now when you drive past these schools, it's visibly recognisable that there are much more ethnic children attending these schools, in particular Black and Asian children."

Gosine says that some people move to Dartford after being priced out of London, while others want to avoid the hustle and bustle of the capital. Many are also drawn to the town's grammar schools, fierce competition for which has helped drive up local house prices despite extensive housebuilding.

"Dartford is becoming a more younger town. It used to be growing up more older white people, but when you look around now it's actually more working families," said Gosine. "There's a lot more working families that are moving into Dartford and a lot more of the older white people moving out," with more rural parts of Kent a common destination for the latter.

Across England, the white British population share in schools has fallen from 78% in 2010 to 70% in 2021 – but this masks wide variations. The number of seats in which 'white British' children and teenagers comprise under 50% of pupils has risen from 74 in 2010 to 111 in 2021, out of 533 seats in total. But in some seats the white British share has risen – a combination of non-metropolitan seats where the white British school population was around 90% or higher in 2010, and inner London seats where it was 25% or lower. In Hackney North and Stoke Newington, which has partly gentrified over the last 15 years, the average white British share at local schools rose from 16% to 24%.

The specific ethnicities that have grown differ by area. In Dagenham and Rainham the proportion of children who are from white backgrounds outside Britain and Ireland doubled in 11 years, while it nearly trebled in Romford. African and Pakistani heritage children have seen the largest increases in Blackley and Broughton, with African and non-British white backgrounds driving the growth in Leeds Central.

Ethnic minority voters tend to vote Labour, and some of the seats seeing the fastest rises in ethnic minority populations are marginals, such as Dagenham and Rainham, Coventry South, Carshalton and Wallington, West Bromwich East and Watford. But others, such as Romford, Thurrock and Dartford, have seen large Tory majorities develop.

"The primary electoral implication of all this is obvious - a steady rise in Labour prospects in places where this shift is largest," said political scientist Rob Ford. "While Labour's advantage with some BME groups may be fading a little, the overall advantage is still huge and unlikely to disappear soon.

"However, there is a big difference between BME [Black and Minority Ethnic] share in school censuses and BME voter shares. BME voters – particularly younger voters – are less likely to register to vote, and less likely to turn out if registered. This seriously dampens the effects of the underlying demographic shifts. That's why we don't see an effect in Dartford yet, for example. But it may be coming 10-15 years down the line."

Gosine was Labour's candidate in Dartford at the 2019 election, when the Tories increased their majority in Britain's longest standing bellwether seat to 19,000 votes. He said Labour's promise to hold a second Brexit referendum was a turn-off in the heavily Leave-voting seat, but that his own British Indian community also wouldn't vote for him due to Jeremy Corbyn and Sadiq Khan's opposition to India's actions in Kashmir.

Ford said rising ethnic diversity is unlikely to spark a white backlash. "Social contact tends to reduce ethnocentrism, and the school gate is a great driver of social contact – kids form friendships across group divides, meaning parents do too, meaning what was once seen as a threatening outgroup is not seen the same way."

"The question has long ceased to be whether modern Britain will be multi-ethnic, or whether diversity brings pressures and gains, but how we manage it well for the benefit of all," said Sunder Katwala, director of think tank British Future.

"Integration has to be an everybody issue, or it is not really integration at all. Every school governing body, from the inner cities and suburbs to towns and villages, should consider how it can ensure every pupil can experience meaningful contact across ethnic, faith and social class backgrounds, to equip them to become active citizens of the society we have become."

[Sheilbh]

Lib Dem: "We're making great gains in Sunderland and looking to do well elsewhere."
BBC: "To be clear you gained one seat in Sunderland."
Lib Dem: "Well when I said 'great gains' I meant 'a great gain'."

Edit: And Worcester - currently a Tory council - apparently the Tory council leader has already left the count. He told the media on the way out that they expect to lose several seats, parties were the main issue and that the parliamentary party needs to look at the leadership

Edit: Apparently they hadn't even started counting - they were still verifying ballots.

[Josquius]

Sunderland was excellent news. The rise of the loony right stopped in its tracks with the lib dems, ie quite the opposite, gaining instead.

I'd thought it was 2 seats in Sunderland for the lib dems? One from the tories and one from labour-,both nworking class places.

On the minority voting shift...purely anecdotally I have noticed this. Used to work with a Filipina who was a fully signed up fascist, suspect a black person I know leans that way too.

[Gups]

Sacha Gosine is 42 and of Indo-Caribbean descent. He grew up in Dartford, where he is now an opposition Labour councillor. "In my school, there was one black kid who was two years older than me. Apart from that, there was a speckle of British Asian as well," he said. "Now when you drive past these schools, it's visibly recognisable that there are much more ethnic children attending these schools, in particular Black and Asian children."

Gosine says that some people move to Dartford after being priced out of London, while others want to avoid the hustle and bustle of the capital. Many are also drawn to the town's grammar schools, fierce competition for which has helped drive up local house prices despite extensive housebuilding.

"Dartford is becoming a more younger town. It used to be growing up more older white people, but when you look around now it's actually more working families," said Gosine. "There's a lot more working families that are moving into Dartford and a lot more of the older white people moving out," with more rural parts of Kent a common destination for the latter.

I'm also from Dartford and went to the grammar school there in the 1980s. In a school of about 700, there was two mixed race kids (me and my brother), one Asian and one black kid. I went back a few years ago to watch my son play rugby for his grammar. Judging by the various teams the school has put out, it must have been about 80% BAME, although they have a masssive catchment area extending through south-east London and at least 15 miles into Kent so the school intake isn't that indicative of the local area.

I don't think it's really a bellweather. It used to lean left in the 50s and 60s but I'd say it was a pretty safe Tory seat these days.

[Sheilbh]

I'm also from Dartford and went to the grammar school there in the 1980s. In a school of about 700, there was two mixed race kids (me and my brother), one Asian and one black kid. I went back a few years ago to watch my son play rugby for his grammar. Judging by the various teams the school has put out, it must have been about 80% BAME, although they have a masssive catchment area extending through south-east London and at least 15 miles into Kent so the school intake isn't that indicative of the local area.

I don't think it's really a bellweather. It used to lean left in the 50s and 60s but I'd say it was a pretty safe Tory seat these days.

Interesting that matches - and it makes sense for churn in and out of the city into the suburbs.

The results that have come in so far are pretty interesting. I think we probably need to retire the Red Wall as a tool for understanding these votes - it looks to me like Brexit is continuing to weaken as a key divide. Leave and Remain maybe point to results but there's far less link than there have been in recent elections. So the Lib Dems won Hull (about 60% Leave), Labour have won the new Cumbrian council by a huge majority (strongly Leave plus three Tory MPs) and have seen some really striking results in Dudley and other (Leave/Red Wall) Midlands areas. But the Tories seem to have held up better in some other areas they won in 2017 or 19. So I'm not sure that the Red Wall is as helpful because it seems like it's moving in different directions (may see even more of this in Wales later today).

As striking, I think, are Labour's results in London and the South. In London they've won Wandsworth which is important because it's been close for so many years but also was the iconic Tory flagship council for the last 40 years. They won back Barnet which is really important because I think it's the council with the largest Jewish population (about 15%) so it is symbolic of Starmer's steps to make Labour a safe party for Jewish voters again. They also won Westminster which is a big surprise. But then doing well in Worthing, Southampton, Portsmouth, Gosport is interesting. It's working class Southern towns that Labour haven't really won in since the peak of New Labour.

Lib Dems and Greens also doing well. It basically all matches the polls we've been seeing in England. But the different results in different areas are really striking - Labour's doing well in some parts of the North, but not others and they seem to be recovering in the Midlands. I think I've said it before but I think way too much attention has been paid to Northern constituencies/problems for Labour and not enough to the absolute rout in the Midlands over the last few elections. The Tories seem to be basically abandoning London (which is a bit of a choice given their leader is a former Mayor of London whose appeal to the party was that he can win voters other Tories can't, like London) and under threat in the Southern working class areas they've dominated since 2005/10. But none of that really makes sense (except, possibly, London) if the analysis is still Brexit and Remain/Leave - so I think we probably need to start looking at something else to interpret these results.

[Josquius]

"The Red Wall" was always a nonsense phrase.
Always meaning "Since 2018/2019 when it was first invented" of course.

I do think brexit itself is going back to its natural place as a non-issue for many of those who voted for it (and a smaller number of those who aren't fans) but the core splits that were exploited in the brexit vote do remain and honestly I can only see them strengthening in years to come.

There remains a huge divide between former working class towns that have held on, they retain a working class; and those former working class towns that have fallen below working class into a cycle of generational unemployment, massive outflows of the young, greying, and searching for scapegoats.

The key factor between these two I really do believe is accessibility. Those with decent links to larger cities and the country and world as a whole are able to retain hope for the young and hold the line.

The lib dem success in places like Sunderland is of course very surprising. I wonder if this is the 'never forgive Labour' remainer vote? Or some special local issues?
My mind can't help but dream of the in hindset glory days of the Blair era where it seemed the Tories were destined for oblivion and the lib dems would take over as the opposition....ah what might have been.

[Sheilbh]

"The Red Wall" was always a nonsense phrase.
Always meaning "Since 2018/2019 when it was first invented" of course.

I don't know - I think it made sense as a concept. Basically constituencies in Wales, the Midlands and the North that stayed Labour in 2015 but voted Leave. That covers a lot of the wins made by May and Johnson over those two elections.

Although I think even in 2019 I thought it looked like a map mid-realignment and I still think that's true. I don't think that has fully worked its way out yet.

I do think brexit itself is going back to its natural place as a non-issue for many of those who voted for it (and a smaller number of those who aren't fans) but the core splits that were exploited in the brexit vote do remain and honestly I can only see them strengthening in years to come.

There remains a huge divide between former working class towns that have held on, they retain a working class; and those former working class towns that have fallen below working class into a cycle of generational unemployment, massive outflows of the young, greying, and searching for scapegoats.

The key factor between these two I really do believe is accessibility. Those with decent links to larger cities and the country and world as a whole are able to retain hope for the young and hold the line.

I'm not sure - the transport point may be part of it. And maybe an old/traditional working class v new working class area.

I think we need another analysis to explain why the Tories seem to be holding on better in some areas - like the North-East. But doing far worse in very leave areas like Cumbria, West Brom, Wolverhampton, Essex, south-coast towns like Portsmouth, Gosport, Worthing. A lot of those went for Leave by over 60%. As did Hull which now has a Lib Dem council.

My worry is that Labour is an incredibly sentimental, nostalgic party in love with its own history. I think there are too many people in Labour who would rather lose with the right voters (in old industrial, working class towns with storied Labour and union history), than win with the wrong voters (new towns, say, with lots of un-unionised call centre or service sector workers). I think they may be focusing too much on the Red Wall because it's totemic.

The lib dem success in places like Sunderland is of course very surprising. I wonder if this is the 'never forgive Labour' remainer vote? Or some special local issues?

I think the Lib Dems have detoxified and become, with the Greens, the natural home of protest votes again. In some areas that are traditionally Lib Dem I think they're coming back, first through local government and will then win constituences - areas like the South-West and expanding their base in leafy, attractive London suburbs. Both of those are a threat to the Tories.

But I think elsewhere they (and the Greens) are protest vote parties. They're also incredibly ruthless and good at local elections. I genuinely think one of the forces of anti-coalitionism in British politics is how much local activists in most parties hate the local Lib Dems

[Sheilbh]

As the day goes on it's starting to look worse for the Tories (lots of councils only start counting today - as do Northern Ireland, Wales and Scotland).

Labour have taken Worthing (and had no seats 5 years ago), Tories have collapsed (largely to the benefit of the Lib Dems) in Cambridgeshire and Royal Tunbridge Wells

Labour look to be doing relatively well in Scotland which is really important - and are likely to be the second party by vote share. They didn't win Glasgow but are apparently very enthused by their performance but have also won a few councils which is more challenging in Scotland as they have a form of PR.

In Northern Ireland they have single transferable vote so it'll take a long time. To an extent Sinn Fein coming first has been priced in - the surprise seems to be how strongly the non-sectarian Alliance Party are doing and it looks like they might even come second. This raises questions about the structure of powersharing which are probably not for now but only likely to grow as more and more voters in Northern Ireland identify more as Northern Irish than with either of the communities. Looks like the DUP vote is sharply down with other unionists picking that up, especially the ultra-hardline TUV who are sharply up, but we'll need to see how it plays out as transfers become relevant.

The numbers that would worry me, if I were a Tory MP, is that, according to latest projections, they're down to 29%. Labour on 35% with the Lib Dems on 19% and others on 16% (there are lots of independents and local groupings in local elections). That's roughly in line with the polls at the minute and the other and Lib Dem vote would be squeezed by FPTP. But the key here is the Tories are down to 29% without any significant rival splitting the right's vote - there's no UKIP, Reform haven't made a dent. It's been pointed out before but the polling for parties who are anti-Tory are about the highest level since 1997.

Edit: And the Lib Dems have taken control of Somerset - the fight back is, finally, real

Edit: It seems the Lib Dems are getting very excited:

Esther Webber
@estwebber
Lib Dems are buoyant in Elmbridge - the council for Dominic Raab's seat.

One texts: "Cobham has fallen. Raab is in serious trouble"

Cobham has fallen!

Overall the Tories seem to be getting more of a thumping than expected in their traditional heartlands. Looks like they'll lose 15-17 councils by the end. Interestingly Labour have just won Crawley from the Tories - which is interesting because demographically Crawley is the most "average" constituency in the country and for the last few elections it's been drifting Tory.