Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Richard Hakluyt]

Hancock and his new girlfriend have launched themselves back into society apparently; they chose Jeffrey Archer's 80th birthday bash to do this 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-10300087/TALK-TOWN-Matt-Hancock-makes-social-debut-lover-Gina-Coladangelo.html

[Josquius]

I wonder if there'd a whole "dark society" out there where all the elites most undesirable media scorned people gather together to play cherades and compare watches and... Whatever tories do.

[mongers]

Gove has told friends that he would not run in a leadership contest but, as one fellow Brexiteer noted, "he has said that before". Priti Patel, the home secretary, is understood to be considering a run and MPs looking for a "clean skin" untainted by recent failures suggest Nadhim Zahawi, the education secretary, would be a contender. Jeremy Hunt and Tom Tugendhat are talked about as backbench contenders by others, while some claim Matt Hancock, who quit after being filed kissing his lover, has talked up his prospects to himself.

Zahawi seems like a thoroughly decent bloke, if I were a Tory I'd vote for him.

[Sheilbh]

My general gripe about the Met and people failing upwards - five of the officers who were disciplined over the failings in the Stephen Port murders have been promoted No doubt our future Met Commissioner is in the bunch

This is the serial killer of young gay men in East London. The inquest was last week and found serious police failings were a contributing factor - and from everything I've read of the case it's tough to see how the investigation wasn't an example of institutional homophobia in the Met.

[Richard Hakluyt]

The sisters of one of the victims, two ordinary women from Barking, did a far better job than the police but were dismissed by them :

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-59320866

It is baffling me how the police could be so grossly incompetent......it really does seem likely that something lay behind their careless investigation; institutional homophobia being the obvious one.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah - bodies of young, slim, white gay men were appearing in literally the same spot with the same cause of death but the police decided it was probably suicides. Then you had the fact they actually interviewed Port after the first death and then decided to believe his (pretty implausible) story.

I suppose the other big factor is that in a force that is headed by the officer in charge during the de Menezes shooting, there is possibly a culture that police failures don't have consequences.

[The Larch]

Remember the "it was not a party because there weren't any balloons"? Well, it seems that some Tory minister has said that the quiz was not a party because theee was no alcohol on it (which I doubt anyway).

[Sheilbh]

Leader of the Scottish Tories being asked about what Johnson's good qualities are and all he can say is basically that he's Prime Minister
https://twitter.com/KarlTurnerMP/status/1470105229114974211?s=20

As an aside, as Alex Massied pointed out the SNP must be dreading the thought of Johnson leaving office. He forms a huge part of their case for independence right now.

[HVC]

https://www.instagram.com/awakemarketing/reel/CWTqYqMD57w

[Tamas]

According to the Mail on Sunday, the BoE is also preparing to dilute the UK's mortgage rules, loosening affordability restrictions to make it easier for borrowers to take out larger home loans.

This comes hot on the heels of news that property prices shrunk 0.7% in December. A clearly unbearable situation after having risen 10%+ in one year.

Last time there was a month of slump in prices we got the stamp duty holiday rolled out. Now this. They can all go and F themselves.

[Sheilbh]

Again it's early days (and I think the re-shuffle of the Labour front bench will help), but Keir Starmer is now leading Johnson in who would be the most capable PM. We'll see if that lasts, but it's the first time a Labour leader has a lead on that question since the financial crisis (literally December 2008) and is another reason why I'm still so angry at Labour's self-indulgence with Miliband and Corbyn.

Nice little chart of PM's net satisfaction ratings as Johnson's (-37) is now the second lowest ever, the lowest was Major at -50:
https://twitter.com/DylanSpielman/status/1470341660148211712?s=20

What's also worth noting is - again linked to Labour's self-indulgence - that Johnson is the only PM in polling history to have started his time as PM with a negative approval rating.

[Tamas]

who would be the most capable PM

I know we have discussed this enough already, but this is puzzling and infuriating. There is a pretty good chance that a random person called in from the street would be a more capable PM than Johnson.

[Sheilbh]

I don't disagree but, unfortunately, a random person from the street wasn't available so the Labour Party elected Jeremy Corbyn instead

[alfred russel]

Could we be headed for another election in the next 6-7 months?

[Sheilbh]

Could we be headed for another election in the next 6-7 months?

No. That's very unlikely.

The Tories have a solid majority of 80 seats. They don't have to hold an election until 2024. And it's difficult to imagine the scenario where Tories would be likely to increase their majority. All of those together suggests they'll probably hold out until 2023 or, if the polls are really bad, 2024.

The only way I can see for an early election is if Johnson is replaced and the new leader calls a snap election during their honeymoon (as Brown didn't, but should have in 2007). But I think that's very unlikely.

And it has several contingencies - I don't think Johnson will resign, I think he will probably fight to the very end. Practically that means that there'd need to be a vote of no confidence by Tory MPs (it takes 15% of MPs to trigger one) and either he loses or wins by a small enough margin to be profoundly weakened. A lot of the talk among Tory MPs I suspect will be around when to time that because if he wins a no confidence vote, then there can't be another one for a year. Even Theresa May got 65% in the no confidence vote for her but there's a widespread view that the rebels went too soon.

Even if the Tories lose North Shropshire and the Cabinet Secretary finds that Johnson knew about the parties I don't think there'll be an immediate move against him because Christmas etc. I'm not sure when they'd time it but I imagine they will want to avoid jumping the gun and accidentally being stuck with Johnson until a year out from the next election.