Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Valmy]

I don't get it. Isn't that pretty far north?

[Admiral Yi]

Shelf is very snobby about what gets called a castle.

[Sheilbh]

It's where Dominic Cummings fled to when he broke lockdown. Stayed with his family and drove 30 minutes to local beauty spot Barnard Castle (presumably not its industrial park) to "test his eyesight"

[celedhring]

It indeed feels like when TV shows recycle locations to save money.

[Sheilbh]

So the Jennifer Arcuri story's come back:

PM has 'no case to answer' over Jennifer Arcuri allegations, says No 10
Press secretary says Johnson acted with 'honesty and integrity' as London mayor despite this week's lurid revelations
18 Nov 2019


In an interview with the Mirror over the weekend, Arcuri said she slept with Johnson in his family home while now ex-wife Marina Wheeler was away. Photograph: Ken McKay/ITV/Rex/Shutterstock
Aubrey Allegretti Political correspondent
@breeallegretti
Mon 29 Mar 2021 17.43 BST

Last modified on Tue 30 Mar 2021 05.11 BST

Boris Johnson acted with "honesty and integrity" as London mayor despite a US businesswoman claiming they had a sexual relationship while he was married, the prime minister's press secretary has said.

Allegra Stratton insisted Johnson had "no case to answer" in light of reports that City Hall has expanded its inquiry into his behaviour after Jennifer Arcuri made a series of lurid allegations.

In an interview with the Mirror over the weekend, Arcuri said she slept with Johnson in his family home while his now ex-wife Marina Wheeler was away.

The pair's relationship has already come under careful scrutiny, given that Arcuri benefited from thousands of pounds in public money, including from the mayor's promotional agency, London and Partners (L&P), and was given coveted places on trade missions to New York and Tel Aviv alongside Johnson, despite failing to meet the criteria for those trips.

Johnson has never publicly accepted that he had an affair with Arcuri, but has not denied it either.

When the allegations first emerged in autumn 2019, the Independent Office for Police Conduct (IOPC) investigated because Johnson, as mayor, had been head of the Mayor's Office for Policing and Crime. It concluded that no criminal inquiry was required, but its 112-page report did say Johnson should have declared an interest in Arcuri.

That was already the subject of an inquiry by the London Assembly, but Arcuri's latest testimony is likely to fuel more questions about Johnson's behaviour and whether – despite the fact that he may not have broken the law – his behaviour was still in line with the seven standards of public life known as the "Nolan principles".

These include that public office holders should be truthful, declare any relationships that might impugn their integrity, and "exhibit these principles in their own behaviour".

Stratton on Monday insisted that Johnson had acted correctly, telling journalists: "Of course, the prime minister follows the Nolan principle when conducting himself in public life."

Asked whether Johnson would give evidence to the London Assembly's inquiry, she refused to confirm that he would, saying: "I'm not going to get into these hypotheticals" and, "Let's cross those bridges when they come."

Pressed again as to whether he would cooperate, she said: "I do think the prime minister is, right now, spending all the time he can on promoting vaccine uptake, ensuring vaccine supply. All of your readers will be pleased that that is what is dominating his working capacity at the moment. It is up to the assembly what they want to do."

She repeatedly referred to the IOPC investigation, saying: "Public time, money and effort has been spent looking into whether or not there's any wrongdoing, and it found the PM, the then London mayor has no case to answer ... This has been looked at already by an independent authority."

Stratton added of Johnson: "He does believe in the wider principles of integrity and honesty. He acts with integrity and is honest. He follows the Nolan principles when conducting himself in public life."

Stratton is still not heading up the televised lobby briefings she was hired to present, and is not expected to take up the role until mid-May, after the upcoming local elections.

But in a bid to avoid anger that the £2.6m taxpayer-funded studio erected in No 9 Downing Street has still not been used, Johnson himself presented the coronavirus press conference there on Monday evening.

It's interesting because the only paper that's really got into this sex and expenses scandal is the Mirror. And that could just be obvious - Labour tabloid digs into scandal, Tory tabloids ignore it. It definitely feels like the sort of scandal that would have been a resigning issue in the Major years and maybe we as a country have grown up a little bit - or maybe it's already priced in to Johnson's reputation, we know he has affairs and an indeterminate number of children with multiple women - it might be different if this was about Sunak or Starmer who don't have that reputation. Or he's not like the Tories of the 90s calling for a return to Victorian morality or a "back to basics" campaign.

And I'm not sure if it's a good or bad thing that there is so little coverage.

[The Brain]

Surely the scandal is the public money she receieved and not the affair itself? I don't know anyone IRL who cares about the private lives of politicians.

[Tamas]

Surely the scandal is the public money she receieved and not the affair itself? I don't know anyone IRL who cares about the private lives of politicians.

I think this story will sink with no trace in a matter of days. Voters have priced in Johnson being a spineless liar and con man a long time ago, like they did with Trump in America. 

[Sheilbh]

Surely the scandal is the public money she receieved and not the affair itself? I don't know anyone IRL who cares about the private lives of politicians.

Yeah - but that all came out in the election. I think City Hall are looking at it and will issue a report. I don't think there's anything new about that.

The new bit of the story is Arcuri's been doing a kiss and tell with the Mirror

[Tamas]

Boris Johnson has opened up a 10-point lead over Sir Keir Starmer on who would make the best prime minister, according to new polling from YouGov. Starmer was ahead on this measure for most of the second half of 2020, but Johnson has been recovering as the vaccine programme has been rolled out - although his lead is nowhere near as large as it was in the early days of the pandemic.

And this is on the day we pass the 150 000 deaths milestone.

[Sheilbh]

The vaccine dividend is real and significant:


From everything I've read about people doing focus groups - the public basically seem to view the pandemic as a natural disaster and think any government would struggle and potentially be overwhelmed. So they don't blame the government for the deaths because they think it might have happened to any government faced with a pandemic (I entirely disagree - especially on the 100,000 deaths since September). But they do think the government's accountable for schools/education, the economy and vaccines because they think that's within their controls.

It's definitely a nuanced take by the public which is, if anything, too generous - but it's interesting to see because lots of smart people like to criticise the public for not being capable of this sort of thing. The plebs just make everything as black and white, can't be trusted with complex judgements etc etc - I disagree with the public's take but it's not black and white and it's a complex, nuanced analysis. It probably helps that everyone has followed the news around this far more than any other subject because it has an impact on all our lives - so lots more people have watched the news or press conferences etc.

But 85% approval of anything by any government in the 21st century is incredible

[Sheilbh]

Lex Greensill - the financier with connections to Cameron, who Cameron has recently been lobbying for - had lots of meetings with ministers and civil servants. He was apparently an advisor on supply chain finance for Number 10 when Cameron was PM. He was never formally employed or registered as a government advisor - it was one of those great-and-good appointments.

But he had this business card:



This looks incredibly bad for Cameron. And also Jeremy Heywood's reputation, he was the head of the civil service who facilitated lots of those meetings and from what I can tell may have been Greensill's first conduit into government.

[Josquius]

The vaccine dividend is real and significant:


From everything I've read about people doing focus groups - the public basically seem to view the pandemic as a natural disaster and think any government would struggle and potentially be overwhelmed. So they don't blame the government for the deaths because they think it might have happened to any government faced with a pandemic (I entirely disagree - especially on the 100,000 deaths since September). But they do think the government's accountable for schools/education, the economy and vaccines because they think that's within their controls.

It's definitely a nuanced take by the public which is, if anything, too generous - but it's interesting to see because lots of smart people like to criticise the public for not being capable of this sort of thing. The plebs just make everything as black and white, can't be trusted with complex judgements etc etc - I disagree with the public's take but it's not black and white and it's a complex, nuanced analysis. It probably helps that everyone has followed the news around this far more than any other subject because it has an impact on all our lives - so lots more people have watched the news or press conferences etc.

But 85% approval of anything by any government in the 21st century is incredible

This is why the UK can't have nice things.

[Sheilbh]

They had the leaders' debate in Scotland last night. These are still quite new to British politics - only been a thing since 2010.

But really interesting thread on what it's like from former Scottish Labour leader, Kezia Dugdale (leader from 2015-2017):

Kezia Dugdale
@kezdugdale
My phone tells me that on this day in 2015 i was in London helping @ed_miliband prepare for the general election tv debates, it's got me thinking about the role of debates in elections ahead of tonight - A THREAD (1/11)
I say "helping" Ed, that's debatable. The stakes were very high for him so we spent an inordinate amount of time practicing and role playing. I played @nicolasturgeon, obviously - it was very handy for future fmq prep (2/11)

Each leader will be thinking about the objective of their prime time telly slot. What's the message they want to land, with what tone and how do they want to be perceived by the public... then it's homework time (3/11)
My process was to spend the most amount of time on the detail. Did i know my policies and their policies inside out. Then I'd work on the politics i.e. dividing lines: what makes you different from them? Then I'd work on the language to communicate the politics/policy with (4/11)
I'd do this almost entirely on my own, swotting away in a hotel room after a morning campaign photocall, which I'm sure worried my team at the time. I know other politicians who do the complete reverse, starting with the language in rooms with loads of advisers (5/11)
Then on the day leaders get to visit the set, that's when you practice how you stand, where the cameras are, how you'll connect with the audience, what moments of clash will look like (6/11)

It's also where women have to really worry about what they wear. Will it clash with the set, are you comfy, do you look like you could lead your country? it would often be the only time i'd ever wear massive heels... (7/11)
Then about an hour before the event goes live you turn up for make up and to get ready, often all in the same tiny dressing room, so small talk and last minute strategy discussions are off the agenda (8/11)
The whole actual debate is a blur and your adrenaline is running so high you've no detailed idea afterwards as to how it went - looking to advisers for comfort. They're too busy spinning to the press. Your gut either feels good or horrendous - never middle of the road (9/11)
The real judges are of course a) the next day's papers and b) your mum (10/11)
Finally, the truth is everyone is usually on much better terms behind the scenes than you think and if you need any proof, here's @nicolasturgeon sharing her sweeties with @ruthdavidson from 2016 (11/11)

[garbon]

Stack this up against the police watchdog's clearing of the police on the night of the vigil and I wonder if the public wouldn't be better served with money for these reviews spent elsewhere.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/31/uk-an-exemplar-of-racial-equality-no-10s-race-commission-concludes

Downing Street suggests UK should be seen as model of racial equality

Downing Street's official response to the racial justice movements connected to Black Lives Matter has suggested the UK should be seen as an international exemplar of racial equality, and has played down the impact of structural factors in ethnic disparities.

The much-delayed report by No 10's Commission on Race and Ethnic Disparities is likely to spark an angry response from activist groups, with race equality experts describing it as "extremely disturbing" and offensive to black and minority ethnic key workers who have died disproportionally during the pandemic.

A preview summarising the report, which is described as a "major shift in the race debate", notes that while overt racism does still exist in the UK, achievements elsewhere should make the country "a model for other white-majority countries".

It emphasises the academic achievements of children from minority ethnic backgrounds, saying that many students from these communities do as well or better than their white peers. It does, however, call for extended school days to help disadvantaged pupils catch up.

The 264-page report has 24 recommendations. However, these are not yet known, as the Government Equalities Office, which is organising its release, opted to put out only a brief summary of the findings on Tuesday.

One of the main conclusions of the report appears to be a pushback against the idea of structural racism. In an open rebuff to the arguments of the BLM movement, and the protests that erupted after the death of George Floyd in the US, the report is described as saying "the well-meaning idealism of many young people who claim the country is still institutionally racist is not borne out by the evidence".

A spokesperson for Black Lives Matter UK said that while the report focused on education, "it fails to explore disproportionality in school exclusion, eurocentrism and censorship in the curriculum, or the ongoing attainment gap in higher education.

"We are also disappointed to learn that the report overlooks disproportionality in the criminal justice system – particularly as police racism served as the catalyst for last summer's protests," the spokesperson said. "Black people in England and Wales are nine times more likely to be imprisoned than their white peers, and yet, four years on, the recommendations from the Lammy review are yet to be implemented."

Halima Begum, chief executive of the Runnymede Trust, said: "As we saw in the early days of the pandemic, 60% of the first NHS doctors and nurses to die were from our BAME communities. For Boris Johnson to look the grieving families of those brave dead in the eye and say there is no evidence of institutional racism in the UK is nothing short of a gross offence.

"The facts about institutional racism do not lie, and we note with some surprise that, no matter how much spin the commission puts on its findings, it does in fact concede that we do not live in a post-racist society."

The report does note that some communities are still very affected by historical cases of racism, creating "deep mistrust" in the system, adding: "Both the reality and the perception of unfairness matter."

One conclusion is that the term BAME, (black, Asian and minority ethnic) is "of limited value" and should no longer be used by official bodies. As expected, it also calls for a move away from unconscious bias training.

On pay and other work-based disparities, the report calls this "an improving picture", saying that overall, "issues around race and racism were becoming less important and, in some cases, were not a significant factor in explaining disparities", with areas such as social class viewed as of equal importance.

The report says: "We found that most of the disparities we examined, which some attribute to racial discrimination, often do not have their origins in racism."

...

[Josquius]

That's one spin.
I imagine the right wing press is spinning it as the UK is perfect and no problems whatsoever.
The BBC for once was reasonably neutral on it just stating that it has found there are bigger issues than racism.
Which... Yeah. I can see that.
You just know the usual suspects will be latching onto it as proof there is no racism in Britain.

One thing I see a lot and really annoys me is this idea that white working class boys are so especially disadvantaged because of the statistics showing they're the poorest academic performers.... Completely neglecting to control for other factors and not comparing like with like of course.