Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Zanza]

They knew what they voted for! 

[Sheilbh]

So London's moving into Tier 2 restrictions which means they don't get the enhanced support (which is still lower than the actual lockdown).

I'm already seeing London journalists noting that there's about 3.6k pubs and 7.5k restaurants who will now be in real financial difficult because there's no government support but there's also no household mixing indoors which is kind of a big part of the hospitality industry's business. So they're starting to talk about how long the Treasury can hold out against pressure from everyone else.

I can already imagine Steve Rotherham (Merseyside Metro Mayor), Joe Anderson (Mayor of Liverpool) and Andy Burnham staring in Northern

If ever you need an example of why everyone is kind of right to hate the London/Westminster press.

[Sheilbh]

Totally agree with Andy Burnham's statement here:
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1316752870818148352?s=20

I'd also add that the GM council leaders and Burnham apparently had a meeting with the government last night. Literally minutes later Sky News were reporting that the government was planning to place them in Tier 3. The council leaders had not been informed, but there was time for anonymously briefing the press

Edit: Another line I totally agree with:

Andy Burnham says northern cities will resist Tier 3 - without 80% job support - because they don't want to be the "canaries in the coalmine" for a regionalised lockdown:

"They (the government) are willing to sacrifice jobs and businesses here to try and save jobs elsewhere."

Edit: Incidentally another weird North-South divide and a strong reason for my long-standing view that South London should just pull up the drawbridge

[Zanza]

EU statement is basically "Take it or leave it" and from leaks from the EuCo they expect no deal now and prepare accordingly.

A noticeable omission is that they don't pledge to intensify negotiations. 

EU-UK relations
3. The European Council recalls that the transition period will end on 31 December 2020 and notes with concern that progress on the key issues of interest to the Union is still not sufficient for an agreement to be reached.

4. The European Council reaffirms the Union's determination to have as close as possible a partnership with the United Kingdom on the basis of the negotiating directives of 25 February 2020, while respecting the previously agreed European Council guidelines, as well as statements and declarations, notably those of 25 November 2018, in particular as regards the level playing field, governance and fisheries.

5. Against this background, the European Council invites the Unionʼs chief negotiator to continue negotiations in the coming weeks, and calls on the UK to make the necessary moves to make an agreement possible.

6. As regards the Internal Market Bill tabled by the UK government, the European Council recalls that the Withdrawal Agreement and its Protocols must be fully and timely implemented.

7. The European Council calls upon Member States, Union institutions and all stakeholders to step up their work on preparedness and readiness at all levels and for all outcomes, including that of no agreement, and invites the Commission, in particular, to give timely consideration to unilateral and time-limited contingency measures that are in the EUʼs interest.

8. The European Council will remain seized of the matter.

[Josquius]

Have to remember to start stocking up on tinned food

[Richard Hakluyt]

Portaloos are being dumped by the side of the M20 so that the lorry drivers can relieve themselves with some degree of dignity. The traffic jam there is going to be world-beating, visible from space  !

[Sheilbh]

Portaloos are being dumped by the side of the M20 so that the lorry drivers can relieve themselves with some degree of dignity. The traffic jam there is going to be world-beating, visible from space  !

Plus the two new lorry parks being built

[Sheilbh]

Interesting piece on the mood of Leavers and Remainers - this also gets at why "Get Brexit Done" worked as a slogan. It wasn't about get us to those sunny uplands, but just exhaustedly, resignedly deal with it, get it over with. And a warning of why it probably won't be "done":

What Leavers and Remainers really think now
'Brexit focus groups show people still want to take back control but confess to national despair'
Simon Kuper 15 hours ago

What do Britons think about Brexit now, as trade talks between the UK and EU approach their climax? I watched focus groups from around the country discussing Brexit on Zoom (when their WiFi signals worked) in June and July, and I read several hundred pages of their transcripts.

The groups were organised by UK in a Changing Europe, a research group based at King's College London, and NatCen, an independent social research agency. The participants were middle- and upper-income earners because the project aimed to understand "Comfortable Leavers", the single largest segment of Brexit voters.

Leavers and Remainers were usually separated, to encourage frank speech. Independently, another NGO sent me transcripts of its focus groups. My conclusion: anxious though most Britons are, they are still probably underestimating Brexit's impact.

The pandemic has slashed people's emotional investment in Brexit. Hardly anyone is following the technical, depressing trade talks. Both Remainers and Leavers want to patch up the family row — literally, as the other side usually includes their relatives.

This divide has turned out to be weaker than the American red-blue split: God isn't involved, few Britons had strong views on Europe before 2016 and there are no militias to fight this one out. People who made strong statements in the focus groups often immediately apologised: "I'll get off my soapbox now."

Almost all polls show that most Britons now think Brexit was a mistake — by a 48-39 margin in a survey by YouGov this month. Many Leavers in the focus groups have indeed become Brexit-sceptics. Though they distrust media reports, they pay attention to their personal experiences and those of friends and family. For instance, a Leaver in eastern England told his group he lost a German company as a client because of Brexit. "Don't you think we've shot ourselves in the foot?" a south-eastern Leaver asked his fellows.

Leavers expressed little confidence in the government's ability to handle Brexit. Most have reverted to their pre-Brexit distrust of government. The one hope Leavers still cherish is that the UK will benefit from sending less money to Brussels.

The targets of Leavers' praise and anger surprised me. None of them attacked elitist Remainers. Many Leavers lauded European countries for their national pride or their childcare. They complained about the EU, but also wanted Britain to leave on good terms and keep co-operating with other countries rather than (in the words of a south-western Leaver) do "its own thing and yah boo sucks to everyone else".

The bogeyman for Leavers is the benefit scrounger. People repeatedly echoed an age-old tabloid theme: immigrants come to Britain to live off its sumptuous state benefits. But Leavers were equally concerned about homegrown scroungers. "The English are feral," lamented one woman in the West Midlands. "If you stubbed your toe, you got Disability Living Allowance for the rest of your life, and you don't go to work."

Leavers wondered why few young Britons had replaced immigrants as fruit pickers. Did youngsters nowadays just want to be vloggers and "influencers"? These complaints sounded more like generational incomprehension than generational conflict. Still, in Leaver rhetoric, disgust about contemporary Britain often overshadowed pride. It's a disgust that Brexiter politicians cannot admit to publicly.

Remainers, too, expressed national despair. Some apologise for Brexit when meeting Europeans. Many now describe themselves as "European", feeling that Brexiters have usurped British identity. A West Yorkshireman said he considered the Union Jack a Brexiter symbol, and wouldn't fly it.

A West Midlands Remainer said, to widespread agreement, that he felt ashamed: "Ashamed by the decisions we've made. Ashamed by how insular we are. Ashamed by how we've handled this whole Covid thing." There's little sign of Brexit restoring national self-confidence.

Remainers haven't discovered any upsides to Brexit. They now associate trade deals with Donald Trump and his chlorinated chickens. However, they have abandoned the fight. One woman intended to "make the best of a very, very bad job". Some Remainers have switched passions to a cause that has risen in prominence since: climate.

Both sides share certain hopes: above all, a return of power from Brussels and Westminster to Britain's regions. "Take back control", for many voters, means localism. People also yearn for a rebirth of British manufacturing, perhaps supported by state aid and "Buy British" campaigns.

As the West Midlands Remainers wrapped up their session, one man urged, "We should retain our sense of humour." "We're going to need it," a woman replied. We certainly will. Two years ago, the choice was between soft Brexit (which usually meant staying in the EU single market) and hard Brexit (leaving the single market with some sort of deal). Now it's more brutal: between hard Brexit and no deal at New Year. Brexit could totter back to life in 2021, terrifying an exhausted country.

Follow Simon on Twitter @KuperSimon and email him at [email protected]

[The Brain]

At least rationing will bring people together, and also let over-50s relive their youth.

[Josquius]

Yep. As I've said before I really do think labour had the best policy on Brexit. Negotiate a sensible deal and then put it to a vote within the year.
But "get brexit done" was just so much snappier and fit the mood rather than explaining how it could be done.

[Tamas]

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/oct/15/queen-and-prince-william-criticised-for-maskless-visit

[Valmy]

Yep. As I've said before I really do think labour had the best policy on Brexit. Negotiate a sensible deal and then put it to a vote within the year.

Yeah but what happens when it fails to deliver the 10,000 unicorns and it gets voted down?

Anyway it is all theoretical. The people wanted no-deal Brexit so that is what they are getting.

[Sheilbh]

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/oct/15/queen-and-prince-william-criticised-for-maskless-visit

I mean the Queen's in her 90s (and I think given everything else her death would cause a national nervous breakdown). There is no way she is meeting people who haven't been tested every day and probably isolated for the last fortnight. And I imagine she's tested more or less daily too.

Yep. As I've said before I really do think labour had the best policy on Brexit. Negotiate a sensible deal and then put it to a vote within the year.

I don't disagree that Labour's position was right and that it was very difficult. But I actually think what they should have done was basically offered May support on the Withdrawal Agreement - and on a deal with the EU in exchange for a role in shaping it and try to position it as a way of reaching a national consensus during a hung Parliament. But that's impossible in our system and given our tribalism. Labour couldn't do it and May wouldn't accept it.

People were bored and tired. And another year of negotiations is not going do anything. Especially as we're talking about the Withdrawal Agreement and I can't see anything in that that the EU would change from the May deal, which Labour voted down. I agree a Labour (or a Theresa May) government would be trying to reach a very different outcome than Johnson, now we're in the future relationship stage. But the Withdrawal Agreement was always going to look broadly like it looks.

[Zanza]

Brexit: Trade talks with the EU are 'over', says No 10

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54566897

Ok. See you in February 2021.

[Richard Hakluyt]

We hold all the cards and it will be the easiest deal in history 

Once young Wilfred is 2 or 3 I daresay he will regularly beat Johnson at snap! .