Climate Change/Mass Extinction Megathread

[Tamas]

In other UK news they announce 5000 quid funding for getting a heat pump.
All sorts of catches and probably still not economical but I'm intruiged.

Just in August the Guardian interviewed a few folks who have it in their detached homes. Seems like very hit and miss. One guy in particular ended up with a cold house and a giant electricity bill for his troubles, another had neighbours complain of the noise etc. I am trying to to reign my skepticism in on account of being ignorant on heat pumps, but a big fan heating up air before pushing it inside does not seem like a great alternative to burning gas.

[Sheilbh]

Just in August the Guardian interviewed a few folks who have it in their detached homes. Seems like very hit and miss. One guy in particular ended up with a cold house and a giant electricity bill for his troubles, another had neighbours complain of the noise etc. I am trying to to reign my skepticism in on account of being ignorant on heat pumps, but a big fan heating up air before pushing it inside does not seem like a great alternative to burning gas.

Isn't it basically the same as EV v internal combustion? One relies on the electricity which can be decarbonised and is increasingly renewable based, the other is individuals burning fossil fuels. But it does need insulation.

And this is slightly linked to something I mentioned before that there are loads of taxes on electricity and relatively few on gas. That reflects environmental policy from 15-20 years ago when there was a lot of coal-powered electricity, so it was generally dirtier than gas. Now the opposite is true. Last I read the government were thinking about increasing levies on gas so it stops being cheaper than electricity.

But insulation/energy efficiency in housing is key - it's one reason I think the most important point may be the levy on mortgages for energy inefficient housing as I can imagine improving insulation etc will be something sellers might end up getting a loan for to fix as a condition for sale. Especially given the implied threat that mortgages for those houses may be banned, which will shift the banks.

[The Brain]

...there are loads of taxes on electricity and relatively few on gas. ... Last I read the government were thinking about increasing levies on gas so it stops being cheaper than electricity.

If only there was another way.

[Josquius]

I signed up for a scheme where the council  were doing free heat pumps as part of a study. A guy came round and inspected my house and said it seemed like I had a good chance and I'd hear from them in 4 weeks.

I never heard from them. At all. I finally got a copy and paste standard rejection when I mailed them to ask about it.
I guess my file fell between the cracks somewhere as they just weren't willing to give details why my house wasn't suitable. Sucked enormously.
A guy I know was accepted for it too and sounds like it's going well for him.

I am due for a boiler replacement within the next year so... It's all very questionable what my best course is. There's some pettiness of not wanting to buy a heat pump when they fucked me with it.

In terms of running costs they are better-your electric bill goes up by more than the gas bill goes down but if you cut off your gas completely then that's a huge saving.
The setup however is more than the pump. Lots of stuff about bigger radiators needing to be installed and all sorts of fuss. Plus a lot harder to get a friendly plumber to do it off the books as it's all so new.
I probably will just get a regular boiler.

[mongers]

A new study estimates that during 3 months of the devastating 2019-2020 Australian fires, double the amount of CO2 was released into the atmosphere, some .....

715 billion tonnes of CO2. 

[Berkut]

We are living through the Great Filter right now.

[Eddie Teach]

Highly doubtful.

[The Brain]

What I'm doing can hardly be called living.

[Tamas]

We are living through the Great Filter right now.

I am very skeptical. There could be several solar-systems spanning civilisations in our galaxy alone without any being aware of any of the others.

Not to mention that "we are living the end times" is the most cliche prediction made in all ages of humanity.

I think what we are looking at instead is the next couple of generations having a REALLY shitty time until the survivors of the various calamities coming will rebuild their existence around new realities.

[grumbler]

What I'm doing can hardly be called living.

Dyin' aint much of a living.

[Richard Hakluyt]

A new study estimates that during 3 months of the devastating 2019-2020 Australian fires, double the amount of CO2 was released into the atmosphere, some .....

715 billion tonnes of CO2. 

Million not billion https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02509-3

About a year's worth of UK emissions 

(or two years worth if you don't include embedded emissions in imports)

[Josquius]

I wouldn't say we are at the apocalypse but we are certainly past the point of no return.
We either become a space faring civilization and soon or the chance is blown and we are forever trapped on earth.

[Sheilbh]

Not to mention that "we are living the end times" is the most cliche prediction made in all ages of humanity.

I think what we are looking at instead is the next couple of generations having a REALLY shitty time until the survivors of the various calamities coming will rebuild their existence around new realities.

Maybe. I think lots of prediction in the ages of humanity is not these are the end times, but that history and existence is cyclical and goes through end times and rebirth. I think some of the language and understanding around climate in Western countries especially is a little shaped by our millenarial Christian heritage.

I think it's also politically problematic - it is difficult to mobilise people and change in the context of an almost inevitable, imminent and catastrophic doom, if that's the only way you frame it. You also need to capture hope and the message which the scientists are still saying that it is not too late to fix and to change course. I think that is necessary to mobilise people politically than an (inaccurate) message that we are doomed and it's too late.

I'm broadly optimistic still. A lot of what we need to do we can do, so it's a question of mobilising our societies to do it - and the comparisons I'd use are total war and also the response to covid in 2020. The bits we can't currently do I think we will find a solution to over the next decade or two and we can add them to the mix as they become possible.

The perceived insurmountabiliy of this is part of the problem. According to the UK's independent Climate Change Committee which advises on this the cost of us getting to net zero is basically capex of about £50 billion a year for the next 10-20 years (or about 2% of GDP), after 20 years they project the opex savings to the economy will be larger than the capex. So the costs savings from about 2040 will outweigh the inivestments required. The UK is developed so it's likely to be higher than lots of countries, but we're also not a massive manufacturer etc so lower than others and we need to help share the costs. Because we need to help the rest of the world, because we are a minnow with about 1% of the world's carbon emissions.

But even globally estimates are we need to be spending abotu 1.5% of global GDP for the next 20-30 years (or about $1.5-2 trillion a year). That is far less than we've spent on wars in the past or globally on economic support measures during covid. We need to work out a way to do it - but that is intensely achievable, and in a fair way. We just need to be able to mobilise those resources. And it's probably an overestimate. Since 2000 or even 2010 renewables have advanced hugely technologically and costs have plummeted, there's no reason to expect that wouldn't happen (exceptionally) for new green tech that's cutting edge or being developed now (and the rich countries should be trying to take advantage of that now to help subsidise the development/falling costs).

We need to focus far less on the doom as a motivation for doing because I think it also encourages a nihilistic acceptance of the inevitable, irreversible situation we're in and focus far more on the message from scientists that it's not too late and the message from economists and analysts who've put a price on it. And I think a lot about that Keynes line from 1942 (via Adam Tooze) that anything we can actually do we can afford - a lot of this, already, we can actually do.

[grumbler]

Highly doubtful.

Why?  "Doubtful" is an understandable default position, but "highly doubtful" implies that you have knowledge of the odds that it is true.  What knowledge is that?

[Eddie Teach]

No, it refers to the amount of doubt I have, which is high.