Climate Change/Mass Extinction Megathread

[Syt]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/rapid-arctic-meltdown-in-siberia-alarms-scientists/2020/07/03/4c1bd6a6-bbaa-11ea-bdaf-a129f921026f_story.html

Rapid Arctic meltdown in Siberia alarms scientists

Alexander Deyev can still taste the smoke from last year's wildfires that blanketed the towns near his home in southeastern Siberia, and he is dreading their return.

"It just felt like you couldn't breathe at all," said Deyev, 32, who lives in Irkutsk, a Siberian region along Lake Baikal, just north of the Mongolian border.

But already this year, fires in the spring arrived earlier and with more ferocity, government officials have said. In the territory where Deyev lives, fires were three times as large this April as the year before. And the hot, dry summer lies ahead.

Much of the world remains consumed with the deadly novel coronavirus. The United States, crippled by the pandemic, is in the throes of a divisive presidential campaign and protests over racial inequality. But at the top of the globe, the Arctic is enduring its own summer of discontent.

Wildfires are raging amid ­record-breaking temperatures. Permafrost is thawing, infrastructure is crumbling and sea ice is dramatically vanishing.

In Siberia and across much of the Arctic, profound changes are unfolding more rapidly than scientists anticipated only a few years ago. Shifts that once seemed decades away are happening now, with potentially global implications.

"We always expected the Arctic to change faster than the rest of the globe," said Walt Meier, a senior research scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Center at the University of Colorado at Boulder. "But I don't think anyone expected the changes to happen as fast as we are seeing them happen."

Vladimir Romanovsky, a researcher at the University of Alaska at Fairbanks, said the pace, severity and extent of the changes are surprising even to many researchers who study the region for a living. Predictions for how quickly the Arctic would warm that once seemed extreme "underestimate what is going on in reality," he said. The temperatures occurring in the High Arctic during the past 15 years were not predicted to occur for 70 more years, he said.

Neither Dallas nor Houston has hit 100 degrees yet this year, but in one of the coldest regions of the world, Siberia's "Pole of Cold," the mercury climbed to 100.4 degrees Fahrenheit (38 Celsius) on June 20.

If confirmed, the record-breaker in the remote Siberian town of Verkhoyansk, about 3,000 miles east of Moscow, would stand as the highest temperature in the Arctic since record-keeping began in 1885.



The triple-digit record was not a freak event, either, but instead part of a searing heat wave. Verkhoyansk saw 11 straight days with a high temperature of 86 degrees Fahrenheit (30 Celsius) or above, according to Rick Thoman, a climate scientist at the University of Alaska at Fairbanks. The average June high at that location is just 68 degrees Fahrenheit (20 Celsius).

This week, Ust'-Olenek, Russia, about 450 miles north of the Arctic Circle, recorded a temperature of 93.7 degrees (34.3 Celsius), about 40 degrees above average for the date. On May 22, the Siberian town of Khatanga, located well north of the Arctic Circle, recorded a temperature of 78 degrees Fahrenheit — about 46 degrees above normal.

Much of Siberia experienced an exceptionally mild winter, followed by a warmer-than- average spring, and it has been among the most unusually warm regions of the world during 2020. During May, parts of Siberia saw an average monthly temperature that was a staggering 18 degrees Fahrenheit (10 Celsius) above average for the month, according to the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service.

"To me, these are kind of the key ingredients of things you expect in a warming climate," Freja Vamborg, a senior scientist at Copernicus, said of the recent heat records, coupled with prolonged months of higher-than-average temperatures.

The persistent warmth has helped to fuel wildfires, eviscerate sea ice and destabilize homes and other buildings constructed on thawing permafrost. It allegedly even contributed to a massive fuel spill in Norilsk in late May that prompted Russian President Vladimir Putin to declare a state of emergency in the environmentally sensitive region.

Already, sea ice in the vicinity of Siberia is running at record-low levels for any year since reliable satellite monitoring began in 1979.

Scientists have long maintained that the Arctic is warming twice as fast as the rest of the world. But in reality, the region is now warming at nearly three times the global average. Data from NASA shows that since 1970, the Arctic has warmed by an average of 5.3 degrees (2.94 Celsius), compared with the global average of 1.71 degrees (0.95 Celsius) during the same period. Scientists refer to the phenomenon as "Arctic amplification."

The melting of snow and ice earlier in the spring exposes darker land surfaces and ocean waters. This switches these areas from being net reflectors of incoming solar radiation to heat absorbers, which further increases land and sea temperatures. That means more warmth in the air, more melting of snow and ice, and drying of vegetation in a way that creates more fuel for wildfires.

What happens in the Arctic matters for the rest of the globe. Greenland ice melt is already the biggest contributor to sea-level rise worldwide, studies show. The loss of Arctic sea ice is also thought to be leading to more-
extreme weather patterns far outside the Arctic, in a complex series of ripple effects that may be partly responsible for extreme heat and precipitation events that have claimed thousands of lives in recent years.

The fires that have erupted in Siberia this summer have been massive, sending out plumes of smoke that have covered a swath of land spanning about 1,000 miles at times. While much of the fire activity has occurred in the Sakha Republic, known for such blazes, scientists are observing more fires farther north, above the Arctic Circle, in peatlands and tundra.

"This seems to be a new pattern," said Jessica McCarty, a researcher at Miami University in Ohio. In past years, fires "were sparse if not unheard of in these regions."

One concern is that such fires could be destabilizing peatlands and permafrost — the carbon-rich frozen soil that covers nearly a quarter of the Northern Hemisphere's land mass, stretching across large parts of Alaska, Canada, Siberia and Greenland.

Merritt Turetsky, director of the Institute for Arctic and Alpine Research at the University of Colorado at Boulder, said fires in Siberia are burning "in areas where we expect permafrost to be more vulnerable." Typically, these fires would break out in July and August, but this year they spiked in May, a sign of the unusual heat and early snow melt.

Turetsky said the fires are removing the blanket of vegetation that covers permafrost, making it more vulnerable to melting.

Satellite observations of Arctic wildfires in June also showed that fires this year are emitting more greenhouse gases than the record Arctic fires in 2019, according to Mark Parrington, who tracks wildfires around the world with the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service.

Some of these blazes appear to be what are known as "zombie fires," which survive the winter season smoldering underground only to erupt again once snow and ice melts the following spring. Similar fires have been observed in Alaska this summer.

Ted Schuur, a professor at Northern Arizona University who researches permafrost emissions, said the rapid warming is turning the Arctic into a net emitter of greenhouse gases — a disconcerting shift that threatens to dramatically hasten global warming. The unusually mild conditions in Siberia are particularly worrisome, as the region is home to the largest zone of continuous permafrost in the world.

There has long been concern throughout the scientific community that the approximately 1,460 billion to 1,600 billion metric tons of organic carbon stored in frozen Arctic soils, from Russia to Alaska to Canada, could be released as the permafrost melts. That is almost twice the amount of greenhouse gases trapped in the atmosphere. Recent research by Schuur and others shows that warmer temperatures allow microbes within the soil to convert permafrost carbon into carbon dioxide and methane.

A report late last year that Schuur co-authored found that permafrost ecosystems could be releasing as much as 1.1 billion to 2.2 billion tons of carbon dioxide per year — nearly as much as the annual emissions of Japan and Russia in 2018, respectively.

"A decade ago we thought more of the permafrost would be resistant to change," said Schuur. The more scientists look for destabilizing permafrost and an increase in greenhouse gas emissions, the more they find such evidence.

Rapid warming has altered their calculations. "We're basically setting records in the Arctic year after year," Schuur said. "These emissions are now adding to our climate change problem. What happens in Siberia is going to affect everything through the global climate system."

Researchers have watched as the changes sweeping the Arctic threaten major infrastructure, including homes and cities in the region.

"Will roads, buildings, oil and gas pipelines be able to survive without emergency [interventions], due to permafrost degradation?" Alexander Fedorov, deputy director of the Melnikov Permafrost Institute in the regional capital of Yakutsk, said in an email. "One must live on stable lands. In Siberia and the Arctic, many settlements and infrastructure were built before global warming, before there were problems. The main thing is not to be late with the solutions, because many villages are located in dangerous and vulnerable areas."

For all the disconcerting signals coming out of the Arctic right now, the potential for troubling events remains high in the coming months, Meier said.

Sea ice typically reaches its minimum in September, he noted. Ice melt accelerates in Greenland during June and July. Wildfires have the potential to worsen as summer drags on. Intense summer storms can cause permafrost degradation and worsen coastal erosion.

"Certainly, 2020 is a strange year all around, for a lot of reasons beyond climate," Meier said. "But it's certainly setting up to be an extreme year in the Arctic."

That might seem like a distant problem to the rest of the world. But those who study the Arctic insist the rest of us should pay close attention.

"When we develop a fever, it's a sign. It's a warning sign that something is wrong and we stop and we take note," Turetsky said. "Literally, the Arctic is on fire. It has a fever right now, and so it's a good warning sign that we need to stop, take note and figure out what's going on."

[Valmy]

Yeah this summer has been disastrous for the ice caps. I mean if you can keep track of all the disasters as they go by.

[Syt]

https://www.accuweather.com/en/severe-weather/us-has-sustained-10-billion-dollar-weather-disasters-already-in-2020/776164

US has sustained 10 billion-dollar weather disasters already in 2020

Severe weather is on the rise in the United States, and the result is costly. As of July 8, 2020, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported that U.S. has experienced 10 weather disasters that exceed $1 billion in damages. This makes 2020 the sixth year in a row with at least 10 weather events so extreme -- a record in and of itself.

The NOAA report takes into account damages from by tropical cyclones, floods, droughts, heat waves, severe local storms, wildfires, crop freeze events and winter storms. All 10 events this year that have reached the billion-dollar threshold were severe storms, which resulted in a combined total of 80 deaths, the agency reported.

The annual average for the years 1980 through 2019 is 6.6 billion-dollar events. However, looking at a smaller window of time causes that average to more than double. The annual average over the last five years (2015-2019) was higher at 13.8 events, which cost an average of $107.1 billion each year.

The 10 billion-dollar disasters through the first half of the year fell just short of the record of 11 such disasters during the January through June timeframe set in 2017. 2020 tied 2011 and 2016 for 10 weather disasters within the first six months of the year, according to NOAA. But, 2020 reached this bleak milestone quicker than any other year on record, since tracking began in January 1980.

"2020 was the earliest year to experience 10 separate Billion-dollar events during the first 5 months of the year," Adam Smith, a climatologist at NOAA, told AccuWeather in an e-mail.

Changes taking place with the planet's climate are "likely playing a role in the increased frequency of disasters," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson said. "With a warming planet there is more water vapor available for storms to produce even heavier precipitation."

"Extreme warming in the far northern latitudes may also be playing a role of slowing the jet stream in the mid latitudes, which in turn may be causing extreme storms to move more slowly, which can mean a longer period of heavy precipitation and a greater risk for flooding," Anderson said.

These billion-dollar events account for 80% of U.S. losses for both severe weather and climate-related events each year.

From 1980 to the present day, the years that have seen more than 10 billion-dollar weather disasters have been 1998, 2008, 2011, 2012, and the period from 2015 through 2020. According to Smith, the U.S. may continue to see more severe weather than ever before during the remainder of this year.

"The big story is the fact that we haven't even gotten to the hyperactive hurricane season, which is widely predicted in the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf Ocean states," Smith told CNN. "We also haven't gotten to the wildfire season out West. For California, particularly Northern California, Oregon and Washington, the wildfire season could be another strong season." AccuWeather forecasters have been calling for a "very active" Atlantic hurricane season, and the basin has already had six named tropical systems as of mid-July, with record-breaking Tropical Storm Fay being the most recent.

The first billion-dollar weather event of 2020 was an outbreak of tornadoes in the South and Northeast flooding and storms that struck Jan. 10 to 12. The most recent were hailstorms in South Texas on May 27. The data does not yet include information from July.

According to Anderson, flooding can wash away infrastructure, damage homes, wash away top soil to the point where fields cannot be used for farming and even damage water supplies, which could eventually lead to disease outbreaks. Erosion is also a concern.

Tornadoes can also cause "catastrophic damage," he said, but because they are very localized, they do not cover as large of a land area as other forms of severe weather.

"The last thing we want is to have another 2017 or 2018 type of year in the fall, where we have these historically damaging and costly hurricanes and wildfires. And there is potential for that," Smith said.

[HisMajestyBOB]

Dollar amounts aren't great ways of measuring disaster impact over time because they're highly correlated with growth and development.

[crazy canuck]

If there is a silver lining to COVID in the US it has provided the chance for Biden to include funding to transition to renewables by 2035 in his platform as part of his economic recovery plan.

[viper37]

Climate change, 0-2019 in 20 seconds

I'm successfully on my way to a beach front property!! 

[Syt]

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/aug/23/earth-lost-28-trillion-tonnes-ice-30-years-global-warming?CMP=twt_a-environment_b-gdneco

Earth has lost 28 trillion tonnes of ice in less than 30 years

'Stunned' scientists say there is little doubt global heating is to blame for the loss

A total of 28 trillion tonnes of ice have disappeared from the surface of the Earth since 1994. That is stunning conclusion of UK scientists who have analysed satellite surveys of the planet's poles, mountains and glaciers to measure how much ice coverage lost because of global heating triggered by rising greenhouse gas emissions.

The scientists – based at Leeds and Edinburgh universities and University College London – describe the level of ice loss as "staggering" and warn that their analysis indicates that sea level rises, triggered by melting glaciers and ice sheets, could reach a metre by the end of the century.

"To put that in context, every centimetre of sea level rise means about a million people will be displaced from their low-lying homelands," said Professor Andy Shepherd, director of Leeds University's Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling.

The scientists also warn that the melting of ice in these quantities is now seriously reducing the planet's ability to reflect solar radiation back into space. White ice is disappearing and the dark sea or soil exposed beneath it is absorbing more and more heat, further increasing the warming of the planet.

In addition, cold fresh water pouring from melting glaciers and ice sheets is causing major disruptions to the biological health of Arctic and Antarctic waters, while loss of glaciers in mountain ranges threatens to wipe out sources of fresh water on which local communities depend.

"In the past researchers have studied individual areas – such as the Antarctic or Greenland – where ice is melting. But this is the first time anyone has looked at all the ice that is disappearing from the entire planet," said Shepherd. "What we have found has stunned us."

The level of ice loss revealed by the group matches the worst-case-scenario predictions outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), he added.

The group studied satellite surveys of glaciers in South America, Asia, Canada and other regions; sea ice in the Arctic and Antarctic; ice sheets that cover the ground in Antarctica and Greenland; and ice shelves that protrude from the Antarctic mainland into the sea. The study covered the years 1994 to 2017.

The researchers' conclusion is that all the regions have suffered devastating reductions in ice cover in the past three decades and these losses are continuing.

"To put the losses we've already experienced into context, 28 trillion tonnes of ice would cover the entire surface of the UK with a sheet of frozen water that is 100 metres thick," added group member Tom Slater from Leeds University. "It's just mind-blowing."

As to the cause of these staggering losses, the group is adamant: "There can be little doubt that the vast majority of Earth's ice loss is a direct consequence of climate warming," they state in their review paper, which is published in the online journal Cryosphere Discussions.

"On average, the planetary surface temperature has risen by 0.85C since 1880, and this signal has been amplified in the polar regions," they state. Both sea and atmospheric temperatures have risen as a result and the resulting double whammy has triggered the catastrophic ice losses uncovered by the group.

In the case of the melting ice sheet in Antarctica, rising sea temperatures have been the main driver while increasing atmospheric temperatures have been the cause of ice loss from inland glaciers such as those in the Himalayas. In Greenland, ice loss has been triggered by a combination of both sea and atmospheric temperatures increasing.

The team stressed that not all the ice that was lost over that period would have contributed to sea level rises. "A total of 54% of the lost ice was from sea ice and from ice shelves," said Leeds University researcher Isobel Lawrence. "These float on water and their melting would not have contributed to sea level rises. The other 46% of meltwater came from glaciers and ice sheets on the ground, and they would have added to sea level rise."

The group's results were published 30 years after the first assessment report of the IPCC was published, at the end of August 1990. This outlined, in stark terms, that global warming was real and was being triggered by increasing emissions of greenhouse gases from the burning of fossil fuels.

Despite warnings from scientists, these emissions have continued to rise as global temperatures continued to soar. According to figures released by the Met Office last week, there was a 0.14C increase in global temperatures between the decade 1980-89 and the decade 1990-1999, then a 0.2C increase between each of the following decades. This rate of increase is expected to rise, possibly to around 0.3C a decade, as carbon emissions continue on their upward trajectory.

[PDH]

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/aug/23/earth-lost-28-trillion-tonnes-ice-30-years-global-warming?CMP=twt_a-environment_b-gdneco

Earth has lost 28 trillion tonnes of ice in less than 30 years

It's always in the last place you look.

[viper37]

Nano-diamond self charging batteries

The company says they have proof of concept done, and they can start working on low powered appliances (phones, medical equipment, UPS, etc) to be commercialized withing 2 years.  They also claim their higher power version, which could potentially replace lithium batteries in electric cars would be ready 5 years from now.

They use nuclear waste to produce their batteries.  Solving two problems with one stone.

It's a very interesting concept, but we'll have to wait

[The Brain]

Nano-diamond self charging batteries

The company says they have proof of concept done, and they can start working on low powered appliances (phones, medical equipment, UPS, etc) to be commercialized withing 2 years.  They also claim their higher power version, which could potentially replace lithium batteries in electric cars would be ready 5 years from now.

They use nuclear waste to produce their batteries.  Solving two problems with one stone.

It's a very interesting concept, but we'll have to wait

There does seem to exist a Dr. John Shawe-Taylor, but he appears to be Director of the Centre for Computational Statistics and Machine Learning (CSML). Even if his quote isn't just made up it isn't obvious to me why he would be relevant to a discussion about using energy from C-14 to run civilization.

[merithyn]

I had no idea where to put this since we don't have a "2020 fucking sucks" megathread...

I had an asthma attack tonight, am still struggling to breath, and now have a throbbing headache. Yes, that's right, boys! It's fire season in Portland! And right now, the fire is pretty much right down the road from me (about 20 miles down the road). My son lost power when a transformer blew up down the street from his apartment, which is slightly problematic because they're closer to the current fire than I am.

No though for real,  2020 can fuck right off.

[Tamas]

 

[merithyn]

My son and his girlfriend are in the Evac Level 2 zone. They were told last night to have a bug-out bag ready and a place to evac to. I'm spending my lunch hour cleaning my bedroom, shampooing the carpet, etc. so they have somewhere soft to land. (I'll sleep in my office.)

The Evac Level 1 zone is now six miles from my apartment.

[Valmy]

My son and his girlfriend are in the Evac Level 2 zone. They were told last night to have a bug-out bag ready and a place to evac to. I'm spending my lunch hour cleaning my bedroom, shampooing the carpet, etc. so they have somewhere soft to land. (I'll sleep in my office.)

The Evac Level 1 zone is now six miles from my apartment.

So...where will you go if you have to evacuate?

[crazy canuck]

My son and his girlfriend are in the Evac Level 2 zone. They were told last night to have a bug-out bag ready and a place to evac to. I'm spending my lunch hour cleaning my bedroom, shampooing the carpet, etc. so they have somewhere soft to land. (I'll sleep in my office.)

The Evac Level 1 zone is now six miles from my apartment.

My lungs are hurting just from the smoke coming up from Washington State.  You must be going through hell.