Climate Change/Mass Extinction Megathread

[The Minsky Moment]

Have to agree cc

The delayers are like people that see a tornado coming for their house, and immediately call to cut their homeowner's insurance coverage to save on premiums.

[Razgovory]

I think there is a real problem in saying "We're doomed!"  Hyperbole make it easier to dismiss a very serious problem.  I don't think anyone is predicting a runaway greenhouse scenario that would turn the Earth into Venereal wasteland.  Sea levels at the Eemian period are catastrophic enough.


I think we should make the climate deniers put some skin in the game.  If sea levels do rise to Eemian levels then all the displaced persons. have an absolute right to asylum in the US.  The Nation of Bangladesh would be totally lost.  Rising sea levels may not scare American conservatives, but an influx of 150 million brown-skinned Muslims might.

[crazy canuck]

Sea level rise is the least of our concerns.  Scientists made a tactical error focusing on that early on.  their reason for doing so is it was easily understandable (or so they thought).  The other effects of climate change over 1.5 are pretty severe and likely trigger a feedback  loop that will be difficult to reverse.

Scientists (including the Hothouse Earth authors) believe they are likely to be near 2 degrees C and that the risks increase dramatically above that level of global warming. But we can't rule out the possibility that it is closer at hand. Hence the goal of the Paris Climate agreement to stay well below 2 degrees C and attempt to limit warming to 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F).

https://www.wri.org/blog/2018/08/why-positive-climate-feedbacks-are-so-bad


Saying that we are not facing disaster if action isn't taken to keep up from going above 1.5 is simply irresponsible.

[mongers]

Meanwhile Spain burns.

[Maladict]

Sea level rise is the least of our concerns. 

Speak for yourself 

[Razgovory]

Sea level rise is the least of our concerns.  Scientists made a tactical error focusing on that early on.  their reason for doing so is it was easily understandable (or so they thought).  The other effects of climate change over 1.5 are pretty severe and likely trigger a feedback  loop that will be difficult to reverse.

Scientists (including the Hothouse Earth authors) believe they are likely to be near 2 degrees C and that the risks increase dramatically above that level of global warming. But we can't rule out the possibility that it is closer at hand. Hence the goal of the Paris Climate agreement to stay well below 2 degrees C and attempt to limit warming to 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F).

https://www.wri.org/blog/2018/08/why-positive-climate-feedbacks-are-so-bad


Saying that we are not facing disaster if action isn't taken to keep up from going above 1.5 is simply irresponsible.

I didn't say we aren't facing a disaster.  I object to saying things like "We're doomed".  Just so we are clear here, do you believe the situation described in your article will result in the death of every living creature on this planet?

[crazy canuck]

Sea level rise is the least of our concerns.  Scientists made a tactical error focusing on that early on.  their reason for doing so is it was easily understandable (or so they thought).  The other effects of climate change over 1.5 are pretty severe and likely trigger a feedback  loop that will be difficult to reverse.

Scientists (including the Hothouse Earth authors) believe they are likely to be near 2 degrees C and that the risks increase dramatically above that level of global warming. But we can't rule out the possibility that it is closer at hand. Hence the goal of the Paris Climate agreement to stay well below 2 degrees C and attempt to limit warming to 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F).

https://www.wri.org/blog/2018/08/why-positive-climate-feedbacks-are-so-bad


Saying that we are not facing disaster if action isn't taken to keep up from going above 1.5 is simply irresponsible.

I didn't say we aren't facing a disaster.  I object to saying things like "We're doomed".  Just so we are clear here, do you believe the situation described in your article will result in the death of every living creature on this planet?

Every living creature?  No.

[Syt]

https://showyourstripes.info/

Gives stripe diagrams for countries/locations, showing if the year average was above or below the 1971-2000 average.

For Vienna, 1775 - 2018:



Globe 1850 - 2018:

[viper37]

https://twitter.com/RasmusTonboe/status/1139504201615237120

I got a good look at Greenland on our flight back from Europe - there are lots of deep wide trenches running down to the sea formed from glacier flows that used to be there.  It looks like a massive abandoned open pit mining operation.

IIRC the original photo was posted as dramatic because of how early this stage was reached in the year, otherwise this is supposed to happen in the summer.

But it went around the world with the basic attitude of OMG GREENLAND HAS LOST ICE, DOOM IS AT HAND.

My problem with that is that the issue is severe enough without hyperbole, I think arguments for action could be more convincing if at least the pro-action side refused to be sensationalist.

The fact that the North is warming quickly is a very good indication that doom is at hand.

no, it is not.  It is an indication that Earth's temperature are rising quickly, faster than we might have expected, but it is not a very good indication that "doom" is at hand.

[crazy canuck]

no, it is not.  It is an indication that Earth's temperature are rising quickly, faster than we might have expected, but it is not a very good indication that "doom" is at hand.

You suggested earlier that scientist were overly optimistic about the amount of time we have before going over 1.5 - why the about face now?  Or is it you think its no biggie?

[viper37]

@Syt, I was wondering why there was so much blue... Kinda forgot to scroll... doh!   

looking at it, Costa Rica seems not so bad, surprisingly.  Might be because it's already hellish and can't get worst, or the Pacific coast is doing wonder at these lattitudes.

On the other hand, with ice melting&all, maybe Greenland will become the new hotspot where tourists go during summer

[viper37]

no, it is not.  It is an indication that Earth's temperature are rising quickly, faster than we might have expected, but it is not a very good indication that "doom" is at hand.

You suggested earlier that scientist were overly optimistic about the amount of time we have before going over 1.5 - why the about face now?  Or is it you think its no biggie?

"Doom" is not science.  Doom is about having a planet unlivable for humans, or most of humanity anyway.  That is not the case, even with global warming.

It is a disaster, it will cost us much, much, much more money that it would to reduce our CO2 emissions right now, but it is not "doom", as in extinction level event for humanity, or most of the world's fauna (well, it is happenning, but it is not solely due, or even mostly due to global warming, that is a seperate problem we must also tackle).

Basically: can we adapt to global warming?  Yes.  Should we invest energy into adaptation rather than prevention?  No, certainly not.  Should we ignore adaptation or mitigation?  At this point, no.  Too many stupid people.


Also, we could do more, but never as much as the "Greens" want to.  Remember: the European greens managed to have Germany shut down its nuclear power plants and replace them with coal plants.  How is that helping us?

There are ways to be realistic about it, and Tamas is right, talking of impending "DOOM" is not helping.

[crazy canuck]

that is double talk Viper.  We are already experiencing species extinction at alarming rates and we have not even got to 1.5 yet.  Both on land and in the oceans. 

[Eddie Teach]

Sounds pretty serious. Maybe we should stop flying planes halfway around the world for fun.

[Razgovory]

Sea level rise is the least of our concerns.  Scientists made a tactical error focusing on that early on.  their reason for doing so is it was easily understandable (or so they thought).  The other effects of climate change over 1.5 are pretty severe and likely trigger a feedback  loop that will be difficult to reverse.

Scientists (including the Hothouse Earth authors) believe they are likely to be near 2 degrees C and that the risks increase dramatically above that level of global warming. But we can't rule out the possibility that it is closer at hand. Hence the goal of the Paris Climate agreement to stay well below 2 degrees C and attempt to limit warming to 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F).

https://www.wri.org/blog/2018/08/why-positive-climate-feedbacks-are-so-bad


Saying that we are not facing disaster if action isn't taken to keep up from going above 1.5 is simply irresponsible.

I didn't say we aren't facing a disaster.  I object to saying things like "We're doomed".  Just so we are clear here, do you believe the situation described in your article will result in the death of every living creature on this planet?

Every living creature?  No.

Okay, that's a start.  Will every living human being will be extinct?