The Emerging Republican Advantage

[Jacob]

So the fellow who some years ago advanced the argument that demographic trends are leading to a Democratic majority now reckons it's the Republicans who are headed for a period of dominance: http://www.nationaljournal.com/magazine/the-emerging-republican-advantage-20150130

Good news for derspiess and Hansie if true

[alfred russel]

So apparently this guy thinks he was right when he predicted "an enduring democratic majority", only the dynamics changed with white and middle class voters increasingly voting republicans, so now he thinks there will be something along those lines for republicans?

I would think the more logical conclusion is that demographic voting patterns change and making long term predictions can't be accurately done. But then that probably wouldn't get you published as easily as making dramatic long term predictions.

[MadImmortalMan]

Swing voters swung and now I'm assuming it's permanent. Just like last time when they swung the other way. 

[Monoriu]

I think people just want to try something new every now and then. 

[Eddie Teach]

Nothing so decisive.

NONE OF THIS is to suggest that America is headed toward an era of Republican domination. Going forward, the country's politics is likely to remain on a seesaw. What's clear, however, is that the Democratic advantage of several years ago is gone. And the seeds of a slight Republican advantage appear to have taken root, particularly in governor's mansions, state legislatures, and the U.S. House, where Republicans sport majorities they haven't enjoyed since the Hoover-Coolidge 1920s.

[alfred russel]

Nothing so decisive.

NONE OF THIS is to suggest that America is headed toward an era of Republican domination. Going forward, the country's politics is likely to remain on a seesaw. What's clear, however, is that the Democratic advantage of several years ago is gone. And the seeds of a slight Republican advantage appear to have taken root, particularly in governor's mansions, state legislatures, and the U.S. House, where Republicans sport majorities they haven't enjoyed since the Hoover-Coolidge 1920s.

So to summarize what we've learned: this guy should stop making long term predictions after each election, and I should read the whole article before commenting.

[Sheilbh]

I don't believe demography is destiny theories.

But is it really a surprise? The Obama coalition was basically the college educated and minorities. The Democrats seem to be heading towards Clinton-Cuomo-ish policies of appealing to those groups and intimate ties with financial services etc. In response 'left out' groups are bound to turn to the other option. Arguably it's the appeal of, say, a Webb candidacy that it's aimed explicitly at these voters. On the other hand the Democrats may think it's worth moving on.

This is the reason the GOP should run with someone who is perhaps a little more populist. They should also continue the work (led by Tea Partiers) to develop a policy agenda that isn't stuck in 1986 and that specifically has more to say to middle and working class people. Again I think Scott Walker looks good though obviously it's still terribly early.

[Fate]

The Tea Party is stuck in 1886, so that's hardly much progress over a Republican agenda stuck in 1986. And they have little to say for lower middle class and working class people. They're a movement of upper middle class white males.

Walker could work if he had a full head of hair. His bald spot is just hideous. Shave that shit brother or get some plugs. 

[DGuller]

All those party destiny predictions ignore the fact that parties mutate.  Issues where a consensus forms one way or the other cease being issues altogether, and thus people on the margins realign. When it comes to political parties, success is often self-defeating.

[Admiral Yi]

I was surprised to learn (in an Atlantic article on the vast right wing conspiracy out to get Hillary) that a majority of married white women vote Republican.

[Valmy]

I was surprised to learn (in an Atlantic article on the vast right wing conspiracy out to get Hillary) that a majority of married white women vote Republican.

Conservative women are more likely to get married? 

[DGuller]

I was surprised to learn (in an Atlantic article on the vast right wing conspiracy out to get Hillary) that a majority of married white women vote Republican.

I wasn't surprised at all.  People who think of the children tend to go for ideologies based on fear.

[MadImmortalMan]

All ideologies are based on fear.

[Valmy]

Republicans are going to dominate eh?  Ah well it is not so bad, look at how great things are in Texas.

[Norgy]

Mother Jones offers a more sober view on Minnesota governor Dayton versus Walker's "achievements".

http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2015/02/mark-dayton-minnesota-governor-profile-scott-walker