May 2015 UK General Election Campaign.

[Sheilbh]

I will enjoy Nate Silver keeping his sterling reputation at UK election predictions

Lord Ashcroft's polls look to have been useless.

[Warspite]

I will enjoy Nate Silver keeping his sterling reputation at UK election predictions

I haven't kept up with these - what did he predict? Lab/Con dead heat?

[Warspite]

LIB DEM HOLD IN WALES!!

[Agelastus]

LIB DEM HOLD IN WALES!!

I'm surprised to find myself saying this, but...good.

[Sheilbh]

Yep and the Lib Dems only losing 10 seats.

A propos of nothing but I'm in a taxi and the cabbie is randomly 'woo'-ing and air punching...and we've just done a u-turn.

Alarming.

[Sheilbh]

LIB DEM HOLD IN WALES!!

As Lembit Opik silently weeps...

[Sheilbh]

Christ SNP really might win every seat in Scotland

[jimmy olsen]

Douglas Alexander defeated by a 20 year old college student, she will be the youngest MP since the 17th century. 

[alfred russel]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/liveblogs/uk-general-election-2015/

The 538 blog, using a model incorporating the results coming in, predicts as of right now:

Conservatives: 295
Labour: 251
SNP: 55
Lib Dems: 24

(I assume you won't be able to see the exact numbers at the link as they will be updated with more results)

However, if that holds up, no one sees the chance of a coalition against the conservatives? Labour and SNP are ideologically similarish, and they together would have more seats than the conservatives...

[MadImmortalMan]

http://fivethirtyeight.com/liveblogs/uk-general-election-2015/

The 538 blog, using a model incorporating the results coming in, predicts as of right now:

Conservatives: 295
Labour: 251
SNP: 55
Lib Dems: 24

(I assume you won't be able to see the exact numbers at the link as they will be updated with more results)

However, if that holds up, no one sees the chance of a coalition against the conservatives? Labour and SNP are ideologically similarish, and they together would have more seats than the conservatives...

Cons + LD would be more though.

[Sheilbh]

That still looks optimistic on Labour and the Lib Dems I feel.

And, no. No coalition. Neither Labour nor the SNP would want one. A minority is possible, but if the Tories are on over say 290 I think it'd be very difficult.


Lib Dems wouldn't re join a coalition I don't think.

They may have reached their nadir winning just 80 votes inCastle Point.

[Sheilbh]

Labour sources briefing Miliband to resign as leader.

One hell of a Blairites v left fight coming. Can't help but feel that things Labour needs to do in the North, Middle England, London and Scotland are all rather different and possibly contradictory things.

[Sheilbh]

Already seeing the 'Labour wasn't left wing enough' line emerging

[Grey Fox]

650 MPs in a building made for, what, 200 max?

[Agelastus]

Starting to see the odd Tory gain from Labour as well now - in Wales, as well...what a strange night.