Is the Chinese Economy About to Fall Off a Cliff?

[The Brain]

Push it real good?

[Tonitrus]

If they think they are about to, at least they have the kind of government that can take logical measures to prevent it.

We'd just bicker through the collapse. 

[Admiral Yi]

If they think they are about to, at least they have the kind of government that can take logical measures to prevent it.

Not necessarily.  Cutting unprofitable SOEs off from the finance teat could impose more employment disruption than the government is willing to stomach.

[Tonitrus]

Except they can just roll over the disgruntled unemployed with tanks.   

[Monoriu]

The real question is how far away is China from the development level that historically is inconsistent with non-inclusive and representative institutions, and will they somehow be able to get around it.

They want the Singaporean/Hong Kong model.  Efficient administration and no democracy. 

[MadImmortalMan]

Efficiency = Fragility

[celedhring]

The real question is how far away is China from the development level that historically is inconsistent with non-inclusive and representative institutions, and will they somehow be able to get around it.

They want the Singaporean/Hong Kong model.  Efficient administration and no democracy.

I'm not too sure that what works for a couple city-states will work for the most populous nation on Earth. There's already quite a big development and wealth gap between regions.

[Valmy]

They want the Singaporean/Hong Kong model.  Efficient administration and no democracy. 

Wait Hong Kong has no Democracy at all?  I thought you could vote for candidates your Imperial Masters picked for you.

[Monoriu]

They want the Singaporean/Hong Kong model.  Efficient administration and no democracy. 

Wait Hong Kong has no Democracy at all?  I thought you could vote for candidates your Imperial Masters picked for you.

It is complicated. 

The legislative council has 70 seats.  Half are directly elected, just like the western way.  No restrictions at all.  The other half are "functional constituencies".  Basically, special interest groups.  All the teachers elect one legislator.  All the accountants elect one.  The doctors, lawyers etc each get one.  The banks get one.  The "natives" get one.  Etc.  Each half can veto the other half's ideas.  The design is, control half the functional constituencies, and you block all legislation proposed by the entire populace.  The government is not subject to these restrictions, i.e. a simple majority of the 70 will do.  Also, legislators in HK cannot propose any spending.  So they can't approve a spending bill for a retirement scheme.  Only the government can propose any spending, and as long as the government steadfastly refuses to propose a retirement scheme, they won't get one, even if all 70 members are for the idea.  This guards against a welfare state.

For the Chief Executive, currently a 1,200 member committee elects one.  The proposal on the table offered by Beijing is that this committee will become a vetting committee for nominees.  Candidates approved by half the committee will be able to stand for election by the population in 2017.  The current riots are about this arrangement. 

[Monoriu]

The real question is how far away is China from the development level that historically is inconsistent with non-inclusive and representative institutions, and will they somehow be able to get around it.

They want the Singaporean/Hong Kong model.  Efficient administration and no democracy.

I'm not too sure that what works for a couple city-states will work for the most populous nation on Earth. There's already quite a big development and wealth gap between regions.

They agree with you, actually.  So right now they prefer the status quo 

[jimmy olsen]

The real question is how far away is China from the development level that historically is inconsistent with non-inclusive and representative institutions, and will they somehow be able to get around it.

They want the Singaporean/Hong Kong model.  Efficient administration and no democracy.

I'm not too sure that what works for a couple city-states will work for the most populous nation on Earth. There's already quite a big development and wealth gap between regions.

They agree with you, actually.  So right now they prefer the status quo 

Status quo can't last forever. All societies change and evolve over time and the harder one clings to the status quo the more jarring and unnatural the break.

[Monoriu]

Status quo can't last forever. All societies change and evolve over time and the harder one clings to the status quo the more jarring and unnatural the break.

There have been huge changes in Chinese society in the past few decades, not only in terms of economic development but in governance as well.  Of course, they still have a long way to go, but they've made progress.  It will be interesting to see if they can continue to improve government accountability without adopting representative government of some form. 

[DontSayBanana]

It is complicated. 

The legislative council has 70 seats.  Half are directly elected, just like the western way.  No restrictions at all.  The other half are "functional constituencies".  Basically, special interest groups.  All the teachers elect one legislator.  All the accountants elect one.  The doctors, lawyers etc each get one.  The banks get one.  The "natives" get one.  Etc.  Each half can veto the other half's ideas.  The design is, control half the functional constituencies, and you block all legislation proposed by the entire populace.  The government is not subject to these restrictions, i.e. a simple majority of the 70 will do.  Also, legislators in HK cannot propose any spending.  So they can't approve a spending bill for a retirement scheme.  Only the government can propose any spending, and as long as the government steadfastly refuses to propose a retirement scheme, they won't get one, even if all 70 members are for the idea.  This guards against a welfare state.

For the Chief Executive, currently a 1,200 member committee elects one.  The proposal on the table offered by Beijing is that this committee will become a vetting committee for nominees.  Candidates approved by half the committee will be able to stand for election by the population in 2017.  The current riots are about this arrangement. 

So in other words, you've got British-style parliament (thinking mostly of the House of Commons vs. House of Lords).  You went more British after Britain gave you up.

[Ideologue]

They want the Singaporean/Hong Kong model.  Efficient administration and no democracy. 

Wait Hong Kong has no Democracy at all?  I thought you could vote for candidates your Imperial Masters picked for you.

It is complicated. 

The legislative council has 70 seats.  Half are directly elected, just like the western way.  No restrictions at all.  The other half are "functional constituencies".  Basically, special interest groups.  All the teachers elect one legislator.  All the accountants elect one.  The doctors, lawyers etc each get one.  The banks get one.  The "natives" get one.  Etc.  Each half can veto the other half's ideas.  The design is, control half the functional constituencies, and you block all legislation proposed by the entire populace.  The government is not subject to these restrictions, i.e. a simple majority of the 70 will do.  Also, legislators in HK cannot propose any spending.  So they can't approve a spending bill for a retirement scheme.  Only the government can propose any spending, and as long as the government steadfastly refuses to propose a retirement scheme, they won't get one, even if all 70 members are for the idea.  This guards against a welfare state.

Yeah, the last thing you'd want in a communist country is a welfare state.

[CountDeMoney]

It will be interesting to see if they can continue to improve government accountability without adopting representative government of some form.

Mono is: Chairman Lmao.