Human Rights Watch Warns of 'Authoritarian Drift' in Turkey

[OttoVonBismarck]

The answer then is that liberal democracy needs to recognize Islamism is an existential threat, the same way we recognized Communism and Fascism were, and respond accordingly.

Well we tolerated the existence of Communists and Fascists in our country for the most part didn't we? Besides there is something fundamentally different between those things and something like a religion I think. Or at least a major and very old world religion like Islam.

I mean not really. We prohibited immigration of anyone who was a Nazi party member after WWII, just as one example, or a Communist. While we certainly didn't criminalize fascism and communism (would have been difficult to do with our constitution) we leaned on them as heavily as government can lean on anything without outright breaking the law, and sometimes a little beyond, too.

That's in terms of hard power approaches. We also had a tremendous "soft power" response in which the vast majority of American society absolutely rejected the presence of these people. You risked getting beat up if you were openly a Nazi or Communist in much of America, if not worse. The West has largely accepted Islamists with open arms, and they've now grown to such large numbers in parts of Europe that the time for societal disapproval is long past, and more rigorous measures are required.

I do think the typical liberal nu-male struggles with this because any dislike of brown people and their beliefs is tantamount with evil behavior (and for some reason they associate the white races like Iranians as a sort of brown person by proxy or something.) But to give such people a little bit of a ledge--Islamism isn't the same as "Islam." I think if you observe most of the world you'll note a marked difference in MENA Muslims and the prevalence of political Islamism versus the other areas where Islam exists in large numbers. Malaysia/Indonesia/India are chief examples that spring to mind. Now, none are great countries structurally, but I'd argue none exhibit the sort of politically mainstream Islamism that we see in the MENA region. There are certainly extremists in those countries who do, but at least for now they are still rightfully called "extremists", because they represent the extreme in those countries. In a place like Saudi Arabia or Egypt the extremists are the ones who don't think you should cut people's heads off for sorcery, or who think you should tolerate the existence of Coptic Egyptians and etc. Egypt is a good case study (and even to a degree Saudi Arabia), only a strong rule can keep the worst desires of these Islamist populations in check. Saudi Arabia may seem a weird country to suggest this about, but I've always maintained that as Islamist as the Kingdom is, its people are even more so--they are truly the craziest Islamists in the world, because as regressive as Saudi society is their people wish it were more regressive and many view the Saud family as pawns of the cosmopolitan West who keep the country from being as Muslim as it should be.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I guess I don't really see how Islam is really some sort of existential threat. The draw of Islam is tradition and culture, hardly something that is going to spread and be seductive to people not from those cultures or outside of those traditions. I don't see tons of people flocking to sign up to Islam anymore than I see tons of people flocking to sign up to become Hindus. Whereas Fascism and Communism were designed to seduce people from Western Society.

Islam isn't spreading by evangelizing, it's spreading by fucking. Muslims are a demographic threat to Europe. I agree they aren't an existential threat to the United States, but a Muslim Europe in 100 years is no great future for America, either.

[OttoVonBismarck]

And you're also conflating Islam and Islamism. Islamism is the belief that government must basically be structure on Islamic principles, and rights and freedoms of people who might want to leave the religion or who already practice another religion should be significantly curtailed.

I don't for what it's worth, think these are "evil" people, just ignorant ones. I agree a lot of it is tradition/cultural values, but those traditions and cultural values are toxic and terrible. This isn't like the ceremonial Catholicism of the sort of American Catholic who vaguely dislikes promiscuity and attends Church for high holidays, it's a lot more deep rooted in these people because they are so (intentionally) isolated from secular thought.

[Berkut]

Islamism if you want to compare it to Christianity would be more like the medieval views that the laws of God ought to be directly reflected by the laws of man, even to the extent of making heresy a crime.

Even at that though, I don't think it really aligns directly. There has always been, from what I can tell, a much clearer divide between the intellectual pursuits of governance and theology in Christianity, even at the worst of times, so the Inquisition, or the height of the political power of the Catholic Church.

The bible, in general, is not really useful as a guide to structuring political or even legal society. Maybe that comes from its Judeo background? Or from the classic "Give unto Caesar..." bit?

In any case, the view that Islam is not just a religion, but it also a blueprint for how to organize political society as well is a much more mainstream view in Islam, although of course not universal.

But the concept of a "Caliphate" or even an Iranian style theocracy is a powerful force in the Islamic world. The political ideology that says that Islam should be the basis for law and poltical power is serious and as much a direct threat to Western liberal values as Communism or Fascism ever was. IMO, probably much more of a threat, actually.

Not in an existential sense in the medium term, in that I don't think it is likely that they can succeed in getting any real amount of power in places like the US. But I do think they are a short term threat in places that have weak institutions now. I could certainly see more Middle Easter countries becoming some flavor of Iran, for example, or pre-9/11 Afghanistan.

I think they are long-short, short-medium term threat in otherwise democratic nations that have large Muslim majorities already, if more Muslims become convinced that Islamism is a valid political choice, and younger generations are successfully radicalized.

I think Islamism is a serious middle term threat in parts of Europe that are seeing a lot of immigration combined with low birth rates and (relatively) weak liberal institutions.

[Valmy]

Ok well here is the thing though: most of these theological Islamic states are shitholes with little redeemable about them. I have a hard time seeing people growing up in Germany, even the children and grandchildren of Muslims immigrants, being convinced that that is a good idea in mass numbers.

[Josquius]

I think Islamism is a serious middle term threat in parts of Europe that are seeing a lot of immigration combined with low birth rates and (relatively) weak liberal institutions.

That's unlikely.
Even muslims becoming a majority isn't going to happen. That they would be devout and seek to create an Islamic government is a further condition that has to be met and won't be.

[Berkut]

Ok well here is the thing though: most of these theological Islamic states are shitholes with little redeemable about them. I have a hard time seeing people growing up in Germany, even the children and grandchildren of Muslims immigrants, being convinced that that is a good idea in mass numbers.

That is because you cannot get out of your own value system.

There is plenty that is "redeemable" about them. If you grow up in them, your odds of going to heaven are radically greater because you and your family won't be exposed to sin and heresy.

And I wasn't really aware that Iran was all that much of a shithole anyway.

[Valmy]

Well it is. But ironically the places where it isn't hate the regime while the places where it is a shithole support the regime.

[Berkut]

Well it is. But ironically the places where it isn't hate the regime while the places where it is a shithole support the regime.

Which should prove to you that "this is s shitty way to live" is apparently not much of a negative to the devout.

It makes perfect sense if you accept the premise of their religion. Life on earth isn't meant to be awesome, and if you have a theocratic government, you should not even expect them to try to optimize the quality of your life on earth. Having a great life on earth isn't the fucking point, and in fact may actually work against the actual purpose of human existence.

Again, you can't evaluate this stuff from a western, liberal value system where in fact quality of life, liberty, equality, etc., etc. are the very point of our social and political structures, at least theoretically.

It is why Islamism is in fact an existential threat to Western liberal values. Like Communism, it isn't just another way of trying to achieve the same ends. It is a set of different ends altogether.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Ok well here is the thing though: most of these theological Islamic states are shitholes with little redeemable about them. I have a hard time seeing people growing up in Germany, even the children and grandchildren of Muslims immigrants, being convinced that that is a good idea in mass numbers.

research by Ruud Koopmans is interesting in regards to this.
(https://www.wzb.eu/en/press-release/islamic-fundamentalism-is-widely-spread)

But you don't need majorities, you only need a significant amount of hardliners and salami-tactics (i.e.: constantly demand small things until public space, and society at large, becomes sufficiently islamised).

[Jacob]

Ok well here is the thing though: most of these theological Islamic states are shitholes with little redeemable about them. I have a hard time seeing people growing up in Germany, even the children and grandchildren of Muslims immigrants, being convinced that that is a good idea in mass numbers.

One possible dynamic in this:

When you emigrate, you concept of your country of origin frequently stays frozen in time at the time you left. Witness, f. ex., the Irish-American understanding of Ireland compared to that of the actual Irish. I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of the Turkish expat pro-dictatorship vote came out of re-fighting the political battles in Turkey of the 70s and 80s and 90s rather than a deep understanding of the current situation.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Ok well here is the thing though: most of these theological Islamic states are shitholes with little redeemable about them. I have a hard time seeing people growing up in Germany, even the children and grandchildren of Muslims immigrants, being convinced that that is a good idea in mass numbers.

One possible dynamic in this:

When you emigrate, you concept of your country of origin frequently stays frozen in time at the time you left. Witness, f. ex., the Irish-American understanding of Ireland compared to that of the actual Irish. I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of the Turkish expat pro-dictatorship vote came out of re-fighting the political battles in Turkey of the 70s and 80s and 90s rather than a deep understanding of the current situation.

These people do have access to modern telecommunications. The 90s are long past and satellite tv is ubiquitous. I'd go as far as saying that a significant group of these people is better informed about what's happening in their country-of-origin than about the country they're living in.

[Jacob]

These people do have access to modern telecommunications. The 90s are long past and satellite tv is ubiquitous. I'd go as far as saying that a significant group of these people is better informed about what's happening in their country-of-origin than about the country they're living in.

Sure.

That doesn't change anything though.

There's huge number of Irish-Americans (and Irish-Canadians) who still view Ireland through the IRA-vs-the-UK and/or Orange-vs-Green-sectarianism, the existence of modern telecommunications notwithstanding.

My concept of Denmark is still strongly coloured by the the way things were in the late 80s early 90s when I left.

It's a common feature of the emigrant/ ex-pat experience in my observation. The culture and outlook of emigrants regarding their land of origin tends to freeze in time at the point of departure. Seems to me it's a psychological thing that has little to do with the availability of communication.

[Duque de Bragança]

Ok well here is the thing though: most of these theological Islamic states are shitholes with little redeemable about them. I have a hard time seeing people growing up in Germany, even the children and grandchildren of Muslims immigrants, being convinced that that is a good idea in mass numbers.

63 % of the Turkish voters in Germany voted for Herr Dogan in the last referendum. If that's not a mass number, I don't know what this is.

65 % in France, cocorico! 

[Valmy]

Ok well here is the thing though: most of these theological Islamic states are shitholes with little redeemable about them. I have a hard time seeing people growing up in Germany, even the children and grandchildren of Muslims immigrants, being convinced that that is a good idea in mass numbers.

63 % of the Turkish voters in Germany voted for Herr Dogan's in the last referendum. If that's not a mass number, I don't know what this is.

65 % in France, cocorico! 

I have to admit that does make it hard to have much sympathy for them. Granted my perspective is a tad colored from the fact that many of my personal friends are Gulenists.