Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-25

[Malthus]

I am having a hard time imagining an official settlement that changes Ukraine's borders.

That would have enormous implications and consequences for Europe and thus the world. Especially if the major countries would recognise those border changes.

That would make war to force changes to borders a valid, "legal" option to pursue, again. Bosnia, Kosovo, Moldavia, hell, Hungary and all its neighbours if some proper Nazi inherits from Orban, all would become fair game.

My impression is that there are a number of politicians in the West who are ready to grasp at fig leaves to make a de facto border adjustment possible while maintaining some convenient fiction. The West was very accepting of 2014. I certainly hope that the West sticks with Ukraine until final victory, but...

Yup, many accepted Crimea, which led directly to the current shit, feeding Putin's ambitions. Was a huge mistake at the time, hopefully enough see that now.

[Valmy]

Well of Ukraine wasn't going to fight for Crimea there wasn't that much we could do directly. Would have been nice if we could have started switching off the Russian gas at that point though.

[Grey Fox]

To counter Josephus pessimism, a constant of this thread. I expect a return to pre-2014 borders in favor of Ukraine. The US congress & its military suppliers will not let this once a century chance go on the way side.

US-led NATO has a real chance to handcuff Russia for 50 years & teach China a lesson. 

[mongers]

To counter Josephus pessimism, a constant of this thread. I expect a return to pre-2014 borders in favor of Ukraine. The US congress & its military suppliers will not let this once a century chance go on the way side.

US-led NATO has a real chance to handcuff Russia for 50 years & teach China a lesson.

No, but a Trump deal of the centuary will, well trump that.

Putin just needs to hold out till Jan 20something 2025.

[Grey Fox]

Nah. Military contracts for red states is a pork staple of any bills. The US Army gets hundred(s) of new Abrams tanks it doesn't want every year. Even Trump 2nd mandate is not changing that. Putin gave the Generals somewhere to use all that equipment without putting Americans at risk.

[Razgovory]

To counter Josephus pessimism, a constant of this thread. I expect a return to pre-2014 borders in favor of Ukraine. The US congress & its military suppliers will not let this once a century chance go on the way side.

US-led NATO has a real chance to handcuff Russia for 50 years & teach China a lesson. 

God, I wish.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

To counter Josephus pessimism, a constant of this thread. I expect a return to pre-2014 borders in favor of Ukraine. The US congress & its military suppliers will not let this once a century chance go on the way side.

US-led NATO has a real chance to handcuff Russia for 50 years & teach China a lesson.

No, but a Trump deal of the centuary will, well trump that.

Putin just needs to hold out till Jan 20something 2025.

on the other hand: a Russia that is severely diminished for a generation and an -ideally- cowed China is advantageous for the US.
So it can fit in an America first/ maga narrative

[Josephus]

There will be a peace deal which will see Russia hanging on to some of the Donbass. It's the most likely outcome.

Why do you think Ukraine will cave? Do you reckon Western sponsors will pressure them into giving concessions to Putin?

Actually yes. I think the longer the war goes, the likelier that event. I see no scenario where Putin can be convinced to shrug his shoulders and go "my bad. We'll leave tomorrow."

Putin needs to be given a carrot, something he can take home with him and say, "this is why we did it."

[Tamas]

There will be a peace deal which will see Russia hanging on to some of the Donbass. It's the most likely outcome.

Why do you think Ukraine will cave? Do you reckon Western sponsors will pressure them into giving concessions to Putin?

Actually yes. I think the longer the war goes, the likelier that event. I see no scenario where Putin can be convinced to shrug his shoulders and go "my bad. We'll leave tomorrow."

Putin needs to be given a carrot, something he can take home with him and say, "this is why we did it."

No what he needs to do is fail to the fullest extent possible. Starting a European war cannot be seen as a viable strategy one can survive politically.

I think time is squarely on Ukraine's side. In terms of military (and civilian) technology, Russia is effectively under blockade (not exactly vacuum-sealed but their access must be significantly below their needs, even discounting their superpower ambitions). Ukraine has free access to the developed world's military equipment, and free-ish access to trade.

And I think the status quo on the front and behind is easier for Ukraine to maintain. They are defending themselves from cultural and literal annihilation, and they don't need to keep the areas behind the frontline pacified.

Western attention and will to help may falter but it would be reignited if this triggered another Russian attempt at a knockout blow.

Plus, Russia's energy weapon is at its fullest potential right now and will only diminish as time goes on. The Schroeders and Orbans of the world might be content to stay reliant on Putin's whims but I am sure Germany and the rest have been working hard to reduce, even eliminate, their reliance on Russian gas and oil.

And while the oil embargo on Russia surely causes price pressures on oil, it's not like Russia's oil isn't finding is way to the global market, they just have to sell it on pressed-down prices to the countries still willing to deal with them. Oil prices are coming down and barring any escalation they will continue coming down which is bad for Russia and good for everyone else.

[Sheilbh]

I get that Putin needs something to back down/to preserve face. But so does Ukraine and I think people need to apply the same thinking to Ukraine. What's the carrot or face-saving measure for them?

They have fought above expectations of most in the West and certainly in Russia since February, they've suffered huge losses and seen civilians deported into Russia. But they are not only holding their own but starting to push back and to hit more secure Russian areas.

I can't see them being in any mood to accept a deal giving up any further territory. It seems far more likely to me that they'll push back on Russia's gains.

[Legbiter]

I get that Putin needs something to back down/to preserve face. But so does Ukraine and I think people need to apply the same thinking to Ukraine. What's the carrot or face-saving measure for them?

Yeah, personally I hope Ukraine gets enough material and financial support to completely oust the Russians from all of their territory. Make their loss total and humiliating. After this war we can treat them as a minor albeit troublesome regional power. Iran with nukes basically.

[Duque de Bragança]

Putin needs to be given a carrot, something he can take home with him and say, "this is why we did it."

Beyond Ukraine not an official member of NATO, and a promise of an internationally monitored referendum in Crimea in 10-15 years time, there is nothing much that can be given.

[alfred russel]

Times suck for Russia but they suck a lot worse for Ukraine. The economy is collapsing way harder, huge population displacements, physical destruction of its infrastructure, much higher casualties when including the civilian population...if this drags on for a couple more years you are going to have Ukrainian children approaching 10 that have not been normally schooled when you extend this with the covid-19 shutdowns.

[grumbler]

Times suck for Russia but they suck a lot worse for Ukraine. The economy is collapsing way harder, huge population displacements, physical destruction of its infrastructure, much higher casualties when including the civilian population...if this drags on for a couple more years you are going to have Ukrainian children approaching 10 that have not been normally schooled when you extend this with the covid-19 shutdowns.

Is there a point here that I am just missing, or did you forget why you started rambling on about this?  I mean, yes, things are worse in countries where a war is being fought than an equivalent country where one is not, but so what?

[Sheilbh]

Times suck for Russia but they suck a lot worse for Ukraine. The economy is collapsing way harder, huge population displacements, physical destruction of its infrastructure, much higher casualties when including the civilian population...if this drags on for a couple more years you are going to have Ukrainian children approaching 10 that have not been normally schooled when you extend this with the covid-19 shutdowns.

Being invaded and having territories occupied is generally worse than invading - until it isn't (like Hemingway's rich family going bankrupt).

But often the political will and morale in a war for nation survival is very high - of all countries in the world, Russia should know this better than anyone. Nations and people will endure a lot for national liberation if they think it's plausible - and right now there's rusting Russian tanks on display on the main shopping street in Kyiv.

I don't see any sign of much willingness or desire for a settlement in Ukraine.

Of course the economy is screwed across Ukraine - but we shouldn't overstate the impact everywhere. There's all of Western Ukraine, even Kyiv is returning to a sort of normalcy, as, I think, is Odessa. There's a huge range of how impacted areas are by the war. That's a sort of situation that, I think, is probably more durable than we expect - the lines are more stable, there's going to be the odd bomb (like London after the blitz) but no realistic prospect of Russian forces taking Kyiv or launching an amphibious assault on Odessa.