Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[crazy canuck]

It's not just the training, the Ukrainian Army has to build a logistics pipeline for any kind of new complex equipment you add. And also integrate it in their tactics.

I'm not against the idea - hell, we need to make sure Russia doesn't think they can just walk away and try next time after un-sucking its army, just that I wouldn't expect any new equipment to make much of a difference in the short term.

Yeah for sure. I don't have a good sense of what sort of actions would beef up Ukrainian capabilities notably a year or two down the road, but I think we should consider them and start taking them now where feasible.

Apparently just speeding up the delivery of low tech things, like helmets, boots, bullet proof vests, uniforms and the like would help a great deal.  Also some weapons systems are not terribly complex and can be readily used.  The problem appears to be nobody is coordinating all the aid coming in.  It would likely be better if there was some kind of international aid logistics hub organizing all of this - but that might be a step to close to intervening.

[Jacob]

Apparently just speeding up the delivery of low tech things, like helmets, boots, bullet proof vests, uniforms and the like would help a great deal.  Also some weapons systems are not terribly complex and can be readily used.  The problem appears to be nobody is coordinating all the aid coming in.  It would likely be better if there was some kind of international aid logistics hub organizing all of this - but that might be a step to close to intervening.

Seems like something we should facilitate the Ukrainians setting up?

[Jacob]

On China: apparently Chinese media is reporting Russian losses using Ukrainian Defense Ministry numbers.

[Zoupa]

Heard through the grapevine that some surface-launch Exocets might have found their way to Odessa. No idea how reliable though.

[Berkut]

It's not just the training, the Ukrainian Army has to build a logistics pipeline for any kind of new complex equipment you add. And also integrate it in their tactics.

I'm not against the idea - hell, we need to make sure Russia doesn't think they can just walk away and try next time after un-sucking its army, just that I wouldn't expect any new equipment to make much of a difference in the short term.

I think you can easily over-state how hard this is. It isn't easy, but at the same time, it is something that armies DO.

I think you could train up a battalion level armored formation (so IIRC that is something like 16 tanks?) if you wanted to quickly, in a matter of a couple months. Not anything like a year. Will they be experts on their equipment? Of course not. We train a basic M1 crewman in 5 months now - I am sure that could be accelerated.

Logistics are probably harder, but still, an Abrams is a tank. It needs a lot of fuel and stuff, but it's not a freaking nuclear submarine. It's a tank. Ukraine is not going to have any ability to fix it of course, but they don't need that right away. They need fuel, ammo, and lubricants. We can provide all of that, along with the lift capability to deliver it.

All that takes time to get into place, which is why we are looking at our NATO allies who already presumably have at least some of that a lot closer. 

[Berkut]

This is purely based on my project management and PC strategy game experience, rather than anything to do with real war fighting, but...

How long will it take to train up Ukrainian forces on NATO equipment and more beefy equipment? Like, can you get a group up and running in, say, a year?

Because, yes, we're hoping that this wraps up soon (and positively). But if it doesn't, creating a timeline where "well in six months the Ukrainian army will be able to field [scary asset], and in 12 months they'll be able to deploy [even scarier asset]" would be prudent - and would also build a sense of inevitably increasing pressure against Russia that time is not on their side.

I mean, there are probably practical concerns (where is the training going to take place, f. ex.) but IMO we should consider scenarios where the war does not end in the short term, and this should be part of it.

FWIW Sweden took delivery of the physical parts of Patriot systems in early fall last year, and they were operational in December. Granted Swedes had been involved earlier in the process, but I'd be surprised if you can't get units up and running in a few months in wartime.

Among the Western volunteers there may also be people with experience of various NATO weapon systems. This is a resource.

The US military is pretty good at coming up with pretty decent systems designed to be operated by average intelligence human beings. 

The real danger is that a patriot battery manned and operated by Ukrainians we train is pretty effective. But one manned and operated by Ukrainians we trained but being helped out by just one or two technical advisors on the ground.....is really, really, REALLY effective. Which is why "advisors" are so common, and they inevitably get killed, and then you have US military personnel dying in a war. 

[Berkut]

Heard through the grapevine that some surface-launch Exocets might have found their way to Odessa. No idea how reliable though.

Seems like there is really only one way to find out....

[Zoupa]

I don't know shit about military hardware, but I thought Exocets were shot from aircraft no? Can you just stick it onto a MiG and fly it out to the Black Sea?

I'm guesstimating not. I wonder if Odessa has coastal batteries.

[Jacob]

Just social media stuff, but believable IMO

[Jacob]

Apparently Uzbekistan has come out saying they don't recognize the breakaway "republics" in Donbass and that they will provide humanitarian aid to Ukraine: https://twitter.com/b_nishanov/status/1504422639506534406?t=mMFUIcIBfdT4ky9LmUUDFw&s=19

I mean on one hand, how much is Uzbekistan going to do? On the other hand, it's perhaps indicative when a former SSR sitting between Russia and China clearly aligns against Putin.

And, of course, bottom line: it's satisfying to see people and countries sticking the boot in a bit on Putin.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Heard through the grapevine that some surface-launch Exocets might have found their way to Odessa. No idea how reliable though.

other grapevinish news is that Ukraine is receiving heavier mobile airdefences. Old russian stock from the eastern nato members, but still useful apparently.

[Admiral Yi]

other grapevinish news is that Ukraine is receiving heavier mobile airdefences. Old russian stock from the eastern nato members, but still useful apparently.

I saw yesterday that was being negotiated, IIRC the countries that have Russky S-300s were looking for a US replacement before handing them over.  Similar to Poland's deal with its MiG29s.

Are you saying it's a done deal now?

[Jacob]

I'm seeing social media reports of Belorussian hackers disrupting Belorussian rail networks to stop or delay Russian troop and materiel movements. I hope it's true

[Crazy_Ivan80]

other grapevinish news is that Ukraine is receiving heavier mobile airdefences. Old russian stock from the eastern nato members, but still useful apparently.

I saw yesterday that was being negotiated, IIRC the countries that have Russky S-300s were looking for a US replacement before handing them over.  Similar to Poland's deal with its MiG29s.

Are you saying it's a done deal now?

unknown. what I heard is that they're sending them over, but then again nato was also sending over migs.
Best to consider it a rumour for now I guess.

[Josephus]

They may or may not be seriously negotiating, but hopefully peace won't save them from a long period of isolation.

That's what worries me. A year from now they'll all be back in London or St. Tropez enjoying their wealth and women.