Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Sheilbh]

Well if he attacks the Baltics we shouldn't be looking at sanctions but war.

Sweden or Finland... I'd certainly want something more than sanctions as well, even if they're not in NATO.

Exactly - and I think that would apply to Sweden or Finland because they're pretty essential flanks to NATO. Except for invading Moldova I can't really think of how he could escalate further - but it seems weird to hold off the big items for that eventuality as opposed to using all the options now.

[Razgovory]

A lot of this ties into how America's political weakness at home is translating to real strategic weakness. Biden is most likely afraid to target the Russian energy industry because he knows the 2022 elections are coming up, and any serious blow to that industry will cause hugely unpopular gas price hikes at the pumps here. I can't really imagine FDR and JFK having such concerns, and in fact I seem to remember them giving speeches about how Americans have a responsibility to deal with the hard times to achieve important geopolitical goals. Different era I guess.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

in case Putin escalates further.

Like, how?

Finland, Sweden
Or if he really has a deathwish: the Baltics.

Well if he attacks the Baltics we shouldn't be looking at sanctions but war.

Sweden or Finland... I'd certainly want something more than sanctions as well, even if they're not in NATO.

The EU has, for what it's worth (not much I'm afraid) a common defence part in it's treaties. So attacking either or both should also mean war. But might not include NATO indeed

[Sheilbh]

The EU has, for what it's worth (not much I'm afraid) a common defence part in it's treaties. So attacking either or both should also mean war. But might not include NATO indeed

Ish. There's a lack of clarity over the meaning of that article - Finland's been trying to get it clarified for years. But I think everyone's had an interest in keeping it a bit of a muddle and vague as explicit mutual defence was possibly a problem for countries who have a constitutional obligation to neutrality like Ireland.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Perhaps the endgame is to install a puppet regime just for long enough to effect recognition of breaking off big chunks of the east and the southern regions under Crimea.  It's hard to conceive how a full scale occupation of the entire country could stick.

Yeah...

I mean, maybe Putin has some plan for how to keep the Ukranian population under his thumb; or maybe he believes they'll turn into little Russians after a little while, in accordance with his view of them?

they didn't turn into Russians after 70 years of Soviet maltreatment, or even (for those parts that were russian) during their time in the tsarist empire. So it's unlikely they'll turn now. The opposite seems more likely. If the Ukrainians weren't sure that they aren't Russians yet, they'll be sure now.

[Maladict]

More googling - it's mostly raw materials:

Mineral, fuels, oils, distillation products account for more than $9 billion in 2020. The next one down is iron and steel for a little over $200 million.

https://tradingeconomics.com/netherlands/imports/russia

EDIT: apparently the Netherlands imported $12 (yes, that's twelve dollars) worth of silk from Russia in 2012

Yeah, so those numbers in the first link don't add up at all. The Dutch govt gives a total for Russian imports of about 15 billion euros for 2021, not 45 billion dollars.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

The EU has, for what it's worth (not much I'm afraid) a common defence part in it's treaties. So attacking either or both should also mean war. But might not include NATO indeed

Ish. There's a lack of clarity over the meaning of that article - Finland's been trying to get it clarified for years. But I think everyone's had an interest in keeping it a bit of a muddle and vague as explicit mutual defence was possibly a problem for countries who have a constitutional obligation to neutrality like Ireland.

true, but on the other hand: people like putin wipe their ass with constitutional neutrality. and the Belgian experience with that isn't great either.

[The Larch]

For reference, here's an overview of Russian imports and exports by country: https://globaledge.msu.edu/countries/russia/tradestats

Really baffled by the Netherlands?

A number of important Gazprom subsidiaries are HQed in the Netherlands, so maybe intra-Gazprom accounting stuff is a big chunk of that.

[The Brain]

How is morale in the Russian invasion forces? Seems like it might not necessarily be awesome, given the whole situation.

[Syt]

The EU has, for what it's worth (not much I'm afraid) a common defence part in it's treaties. So attacking either or both should also mean war. But might not include NATO indeed

Ish. There's a lack of clarity over the meaning of that article - Finland's been trying to get it clarified for years. But I think everyone's had an interest in keeping it a bit of a muddle and vague as explicit mutual defence was possibly a problem for countries who have a constitutional obligation to neutrality like Ireland.

Or Austria. Though technically Austria is also not permitted to form any union with Germany, so ...

[Jacob]

The EU has, for what it's worth (not much I'm afraid) a common defence part in it's treaties. So attacking either or both should also mean war. But might not include NATO indeed

I feel like EU countries (and Canada, for that matter) should look at doubling their military budgets in the next financial cycle. That'd have signalling and good practical value, IMO.

[Admiral Yi]

I think he genuinely believes that Ukraine will fold quickly and he will be able to easily re-make it into a pliable Belarus (probably as part of the "union state"). They are ultimately just little Russians who have been brainwashed. I suspect he's wrong. I think Ukraine might  prove more resilient and I think will have far more resistance. But I doubt there's anyone left to tell him.

I've been wondering the same thing.  Ukrainians will greet Russian troops with open arms, grateful to be freed from the fascist regime they just voted for.

BTW, anyone know how many troops Ukraine has?

[Jacob]

they didn't turn into Russians after 70 years of Soviet maltreatment, or even (for those parts that were russian) during their time in the tsarist empire. So it's unlikely they'll turn now. The opposite seems more likely. If the Ukrainians weren't sure that they aren't Russians yet, they'll be sure now.

Agreed.

[The Larch]

Looks like the fight for Hostomel Airfield outside Kyiv is possibly quite important - apparently it's key for Russia's ability to assault Kyiv (I assume in a sort of rapid decapitation strategy).

I assume it's for supplying purposes, or rapid deployment of air-transported units, as it seems to be an important logistic hub. It's known as the Antonov airport becauseit is owned by Antonov, the same company that produces the Antonov cargo planes, owns and operates it, and lots of cargo planes are based there, including the only existing An-225 plane, the world's largest cargo plane.

https://twitter.com/AVindman/status/1496954024914046978

Ukrainian MoD claims the Homostel airport has been taken back from the Russians.

It was a Ukranian Spetznatz brigade that retook the airport, apparently, and it was held by Russian Airborne troops (from the 76th Guards Air Assault Division, which were last reported in Belarus). Now that's a FPS scenario waiting to happen. 

[OttoVonBismarck]

I'm well removed from any military expertise but following Vindman and a few other trusted analysts, I think the consensus is Ukraine is performing better than most expected and likely better than Putin expected. War isn't a fairy tale game, and it isn't a fair fight, so they are still going to lose and lose quickly, but they're imposing a cost on Putin in lives and material--including the lives of some elite Russian operatives. Just makes you wonder what Ukraine could have done had we been serious at all about helping them build up their military after Crimea.