Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Tamas]

I reported on the Donbas bill proposed by Putin's party yesterday.

I think what happens to that (and how loudly) will be a good indication of what to happen. Maybe the decision to stand down was made overnight and the bill will be quietly swept under the rug (whether voted on or not). If there'll be loud acceptance of it then I think war is still likely.

[Sheilbh]

I reported on the Donbas bill proposed by Putin's party yesterday.

I think what happens to that (and how loudly) will be a good indication of what to happen. Maybe the decision to stand down was made overnight and the bill will be quietly swept under the rug (whether voted on or not). If there'll be loud acceptance of it then I think war is still likely.

Soz

But I think the other interesting thing with it is that, from what I understand, it's not a do x by y type of resolution. It's open-ended. So Putin can just pocket it and use it when he next wants to create a crisis.

I still have no idea - I can't think of another moment I've seen in my lifetime when there's so much radical uncertainty and no clarity over what happens next. I mean Shoigu and Lavrov in their meetings yesterday said the exercises were coming to an end and it was worth continuing with diplomacy with the West. Obviously that was entirely scripted - so I'm not entirely convinced the withdrawal means anything and isn't also entirely scripted (especially as it's of troops who are based near the border so can be moved back very quickly).

I think last week when he was in NATO Johnson said that the intelligence was grim but he didn't know if Putin had actually made up his mind - I wonder if we're still in that territory. As it feels a little like if Russia pulls back they've now got the West offering huge amounts of financial aid to Ukraine, significantly arming Ukraine and NATO's eastern frotnier has been reinforced - it's not a great return even if he recognises Lukhansk and Donetsk and has the world pivoting around Ukraine with Western politicians flying in and out of Moscow etc.

[celedhring]

Might be a face-saving exercise, probably for domestic audiences given all the pageantry. "We, good-natured Russians, gave diplomacy a chance but those untrustful westerners tried to trick us again, so on with the tanks".

[Syt]

Paper quoted a survey that only about 25% of Russians are following the news on the Ukraine crisis, and that the economy (and inflation) and Covid are higher on the list of concerns for Russians at the moment.

[The Larch]

Separately the Duma has called on Putin to recognise Lukhansk and Donetsk (it doesn't say what as)

As independent. It is now in Putin's hands to either ratify it or reject it.

On a separate note:

Russia says it will withdraw some of its troops from Ukraine border
Move could be sign of de-escalation amid fears of invasion but size of planned withdrawal is unclear

Russia's defence ministry has announced it is to withdraw some of its troops from the border with Ukraine in a possible de-escalation of the threat of a potential invasion.

The size of the withdrawal remains unclear and may involve only a fraction of Russia's forces at the Ukrainian border, which western officials estimate at more than 60% of the country's ground forces.

The announcement of the withdrawal came in a statement from the defence ministry spokesperson Igor Konashenkov, who described ongoing exercises that involved forces from "practically all military districts, fleets, and the airborne forces".

"Units of the southern and western military districts, which have accomplished their missions, are boarding trains and trucks and will head for their garrisons later today," Konashenkov said in the statement.

I also read somewhere that it seems that Belarus has given assurances to Ukraine that it would not allow for its territory to be used towards any potential invasion by Russia. Don't know how realistic or truthful that might be, but the article said that, despite everything, relations between Ukraine and Belarus are relatively decent.

[Tamas]

We just don't know and have no way of knowing until after the fact (and that just means if there's war. If Russia retreats it will just keep the spectre alive). What adds to it, I suspect, is Russia doesn't know either. My impression is that there's real pressure on the Russian state machine (diplomats and military) to make something happen. Whether that pressure is just Putin going mental, or some strong faction that needs placating, or some upcoming economic troubles they need distraction from, who knows. 

They don't actually want a war but they want avoidance of war less than a win in Ukraine. So what we have seen and been sold as masterful maneuvering by Putin is them wiggling in an increasingly closed space as the West and Ukraine refuse to play ball, and the US strategy of publicising their intelligence finds preemptively invalidating their casus belli plans.

[Syt]

I also read somewhere that it seems that Belarus has given assurances to Ukraine that it would not allow for its territory to be used towards any potential invasion by Russia. Don't know how realistic or truthful that might be, but the article said that, despite everything, relations between Ukraine and Belarus are relatively decent.

So they retreat now and attack in a week's time. "We wanted a peaceful solution and drew back, but Ukraine/the West forced our hand!"

Also, interesting to go back through the first couple pages of thread and see how much (and little) has changed.

[Syt]

Also, this is interesting: https://maphub.net/Cen4infoRes/russian-ukraine-monitor

Russia-Ukraine Monitor Map
by Cen4infoRes

The Russia-Ukraine Monitor Map is a crowdsourced effort to map, document and verify information in order to provide reliable information for policymakers and journalists of the on-the-ground and online situation in and around Ukraine.

This map is created by the Centre For Information Resilience (https://twitter.com/Cen4infoRes) as part of a wider effort to tackle disinformation and promote transparent and verified information.

WHAT THIS MAP IS
The pins on this map represents open source material such as videos, photos and imagery that have been cross-referenced with satellite imagery to determine precise locations of military activity.

LEGEND
Green markers indicate transport buildup of military assets.
Blue markers indicate Satellite imagery of Russian military camps/bases
Yellow markers indicate Russian troops movement

[Berkut]

I thought the Biden (apparent) policy of just coming out with intel as they got it was interesting.

Intell gets reports of a planned false flag op? OK, just announce it straight out. Don't try to intercept the op, or use the fact that you know, and maybe they don't know that you know, as a way of foiling it....just announce the plan.

Makes it pretty hard to actually execute on the op when you just announce to the world that it is coming.

Of course, you are also risking revealing your sources as well.

[Berkut]

Separately the Duma has called on Putin to recognise Lukhansk and Donetsk (it doesn't say what as) - I have seen some people suggest that may be what happens. Russia recognises them as autonomous republics and moves in military and logistical support.

But I think everything is still unclear. Totally agree with this thread:

Seva
@SevaUT
when the uncertain part of the crisis is over, whatever the outcome, you will see people saying "in retrospect it was inevitable that..." DO NOT trust those people
it is remarkably easy to construct plausible ex post narratives given the number of facts available to you
In retrospect it was inevitable that Putin would invade. This kind of military build-up wouldn't happen unless there was a plan to use it.  And clearly Putin wants to secure his legacy as the man who returned Ukraine to Russia.
In retrospect it was inevitable that Putin would not invade. He has already achieved his goals of restarting security talks and sending a strong message to Ukraine. Given the Western response, it had become clear an invasion would be too costly.
this is what e.h. carr meant when he said facts never speak for themselves, the historian speaks for them. and what goethe meant when he said every fact is already a theory

Indeed. This is also why you cannot really place TOO much weight on history as a informer of current actions. Every historical event can trivially be recast as some kind of inevitability, and if it had gone a different way, THAT would have been inevitable as well.

I just watched "The Last Duel", which was excellent IMO. But I could not help imagining that the story it told, with three different views, was just such a perfect example of how the same broad facts can tell radically different stories, simply by which facts are included, and which are left out. What is relevant, and what is distracting?

If a historain 200 years from now tells the story of the US response to COVID, do they include the bit about Trump suggesting we just inject some bleach to explain what the US did or didn't do? Is that a pertinent fact, or just a distracting bit of immaterial bullshit?

[DGuller]

I thought the Biden (apparent) policy of just coming out with intel as they got it was interesting.

Intell gets reports of a planned false flag op? OK, just announce it straight out. Don't try to intercept the op, or use the fact that you know, and maybe they don't know that you know, as a way of foiling it....just announce the plan.

Makes it pretty hard to actually execute on the op when you just announce to the world that it is coming.

Of course, you are also risking revealing your sources as well.

You also risk losing credibility, because Putin can always react to your predictions to make sure they never come to being.  There are already enough useful idiots out there who though the whole war talk was a US propaganda from the start.

[Sheilbh]

You also risk losing credibility, because Putin can always react to your predictions to make sure they never come to being.  There are already enough useful idiots out there who though the whole war talk was a US propaganda from the start.

Agree - but I think it reduces the risk of actual war by calling out possible false flags and when you expect them to happen etc. I think the benefit of potentially forestalling or preventing conflict outweighs the risk to credibility - which is basically the same as would happen at any time if this didn't escalate ("see, we didn't need to supply weapons to Ukraine/threaten sanctions/send troops to the Baltics after all"). But I wonder if there is a limited number of times you can do this before the credibility gap outweighs the preventive effect?

It's interesting though - people have wondered how do you deal with hybrid warfare and this may be an example of one method.

Relatedly apparently NATO are seeing more reinforcements than withdrawals today - the French have also confirmed that in their view Russia has now got all it needs to launch a full invasion which means that the French, UK and US intelligence assessment is now basically aligned. Previously the French had said they were less sure of that risk because of the types of equipment they felt was still missing.

[Jacob]

So, headlines stating tensions are easing and markets recovering as a result?

Also theories that the whole thing was designed to embarrass the west and discredit us intelligence. Which seems a bit of a stretch, occams razor et al, but possible-especially if you include the possibility it wasn't Russias original plan but makes for a great way to draw a win from it anyway.

Yeah sure, but how does it discredit the West's intelligence? Russia takes all the steps to get ready to invade, then pulls back in the last minute. I don't think that leaves a massive amount of egg on the West's face, nor does that amount of egg seem particularly worth the costs Putin is paying.

I mean - NATO has shown it's relatively coherent and focused to threats in its near perimeter - including Germany, the EU may be waking up to the vulnerability of relying on Russian gas and start mitigating that, Ukraine defence has been bolstered both in terms of materiel and funding, and Ukrainian sentiment against Russia appears to have hardened.

... all that to go "haha psyche! Your really fell for that!? Look at how jumpy those guys are! Lol!"?

[Berkut]

I am with Jake here.

I don't see how this ends with Russia looking like they pulled one over - exactly the opposite.

In fact, if Russia does NOT invade, I am not sure what Putin could have done to more thoroughly damage his position in respects to NATO then this entire fucking mess he just pulled.

A few months ago people were arguing about how good it was for Germany to tell NATO and the US to fuck off over Nordstrom 2...

[The Brain]

If the thing ends now Russia will look like they tried to bully Ukraine and the West, failed, and has instead hardened opposition to Russian BS in Eastern Europe.