Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[Maladict]

Yeah, saw it too. War in our lifetimes.
I've already accepted that chance my kid will be drafted at one point is quite high.
Doesn't mean I made peace with it, on the contrary. I'm quite pissed at our politicians for their ineptitude.

 Edmund:  You see, Baldrick, in order to prevent war in Europe, two superblocs developed: us, the French and the Russians on one side, and the Germans and Austro-Hungary on the other.   The idea was to have two vast opposing armies, each acting as the other's deterrent.   That way there could never be a war.
 

Baldrick:  But this is a sort of a war, isn't it, sir?
 

Edmund:  Yes, that's right.   You see, there was a tiny flaw in the plan.
 

George:   What was that, sir?
 

Edmund:  It was bollocks.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Yeah.
Bollocks indeed.

[Tamas]

Yeah, saw it too. War in our lifetimes.
I've already accepted that chance my kid will be drafted at one point is quite high.
Doesn't mean I made peace with it, on the contrary. I'm quite pissed at our politicians for their ineptitude.

Well, we have no choice but to batten down the hatches while America focuses on the real issues like gender pronouns and brown people.

[HVC]

I love to make fun of Americans as much as the next guy, but it's your backyard. Priority responsibility falls to Western Europe.

[Tamas]

I love to make fun of Americans as much as the next guy, but it's your backyard. Priority responsibility falls to Western Europe.

Well I am sorry but we need to spend our taxes on welfare, subsidies and overpriced, definitely not corrupt, road constructions, so we can feel all smug about right-wing hellhole America. No money left for militaries.

[Sheilbh]

I'll have you know some of that military spending is welfare! (I think it's Belgium where over half of the defence budget goes on pensions )

[Threviel]

This crap-fest is not the fault of the Americans. In a perfect world were our politicians and voters behaved like responsible adults Europe ought to have made huge defense investments from 2008 onwards. There is no reason, except the incompetence of Western voters and politicians, why western Europe shouldn't be able to over-supply Ukraine with everything it could possibly need to knock down the gates of the Kremlin.

That the US is the only available source of resources is a gigantic black mark on European politics for the last 15-20 years. And it continues, two years in and all of Europe can't supply ammunition to what would have been a quiet sector in 1915... And that with more or less massive popular support for supplying Ukraine. 

[HVC]

I'll have you know some of that military spending is welfare! (I think it's Belgium where over half of the defence budget goes on pensions )

Belgium is fine, they never get invaded...

[Josquius]

Really the sensible path for Europe would have been to stop seeing militaries as national wanking posts and to just pool their resources for better payoff in a European army.

If only the brexit crazies had been right.

[Zanza]

It's bizarre that we still have insufficient production capacity two years into the war. The economy of EU and UK together is several times that of Russia. Why are we not just outproducing them in everything?

[Threviel]

At the very least basic simple cheap stuff like drones and ammunition. It's a gigantic disgrace.

[Sheilbh]

This article seemed fair on both sides - the other side is obviously that European arms manufacturers are also exporters and won't just dump pre-existing contracts with other countries.

It's the same old story - under-investment and losing industrial/productive capacity. I think industry has a point that if we want an arms industry that is capable of supporting Ukraine, and re-storcking/re-arming the rest of Europe while continuing as an export industry then that's probably going to require some big capital investment and new factories. From a private industry perspective investing in lots of new arms factories in Europe probably feels like quite a big risk (what if the war ends, what if Europe gets complacent on re-arming again etc) that requires some form of big political commitment to de-risk it.

Only countries I'm aware of making those kinds of plans are Poland, Finland and Ukraine itself and I think it undermines everything else (which is positive) that Europe is doing:

Industry group rejects EU blame in missed ammo target for Ukraine
By Tom Kington
 Nov 17, 2023

ROME — Ammunition makers are not to blame for Europe's failure to deliver one million shells to Ukraine, the continent's industry association has claimed in response to accusations from European defense officials.

European munition manufacturers were singled out for responsibility on Tuesday as European Union officials and member state defense ministers revealed the bloc would not deliver on a promise made this spring to dispatch one million much needed artillery shells to Kyiv within a year.

Dutch Defence Minister Kajsa Ollongren pointed the finger, stating, "We have all signed contracts. We've done joint procurement. So industry now has to deliver. It has to step up its game to produce more."

EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell went a step further, alleging firms were still exporting 40 percent of their production around the world, thus diverting precious shells from the defense of Ukraine against Russia.

The allegations however drew a detailed rebuttal from the Aerospace, Security and Defence Industries Association of Europe, a trade group representing sectors across the continent.

In response to a request for comment from Defense News, the group said it had not had enough time to get ready to fulfill orders for Ukraine and was in any case busy with replenishing the stocks of its domestic customers.

"The double challenge for industry today – after decades-long underinvestment and the subsequent reduction of manufacturing capacities – is to ramp up production both to support Ukraine and to replenish and reinforce the stocks of armed forces in Europe (ammunition is only one element)," the association said in a statement.

"But this needs time – more time than originally envisaged by EU political leaders – as it is a complex process that requires meticulous long-term planning and consideration of various factors to ensure its success, efficiency and viability," it added.

What's needed to allow companies to invest for long term production hikes is more long-term contracts, the association said.

"Industry has already significantly expanded its production capacities and increased production as much as possible under adverse circumstances (supply chain bottlenecks, swelling raw material costs, shortages of qualified workforce, burdensome regulation and administrative processes, paucity of actual orders)," the association's statement reads.

"Long-term investments in further expansion of production capacities must however come along with long-term contracts from European customers. Contracts of this scale are not concluded within days but need careful consideration from both customers and industrial providers."

The EU planned hoped to reach the one million shells target by earmarking €1 billion (U.S. $1.1 billion) earlier this year to compensate members for the shells they donated to Ukraine from their stocks, plus another €1 billion to fund the joint purchase of more munitions from EU states and Norway.

Borrell's accusation that firms were still diverting stocks to export customers was also challenged by the association.

"Contracts cannot simply be cancelled or changed unilaterally, as that would severely damage the credibility of European defense industry as a supplier. This is a serious risk, given that production for non-European destinations has been vital for maintaining European manufacturing capacities during the past decades at a certain minimum level.

"Therefore, the reorientation of production capacities is a complex process that needs strong and long-term political support," the association said.

"The political objective to deliver one million artillery shells within a year seemed very ambitious already at the time of its announcement, in view of the enormous challenge it presented," the association said, adding, "It is possible to produce and deliver this amount of shells, even if it takes a bit longer."

[Josquius]

You'd think though that the war had taught that current ammo stocks just aren't sufficient and we need far more - both for ourselves and for future situations like Ukraine. We should be going basically full covid response (though less incompetent and corrupt) and signing long term contracts that secure extra manufacturing capacity is viable.

[Threviel]

Exactly. And it also shows that a few hundred armoured vehicles is not enough for a proper army. We should be building lots of factories for defense products, it's just not happening.

[Tamas]

And to repeat myself from earlier, I just don't get it - handing out juicy contracts to industrialists so those can create (relatively) low-skilled jobs. What is stopping this from happening, how is this not a good deal?