Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-23 and Invasion

[HVC]

Different actor?

So pringles is dead. How long? I say 2 years so he starts letting his guard down. But the question I have is does this affect Putin? Does Russia get another true uprising? Or do we just wait until cancer takes him out.

[Tamas]

It's probably just wishful thinking but I think Putin is close to tbe end. I am getting Ceausescu vibes.

[Sheilbh]

Maybe Western sanctions are causing painful shortages of fillers

[Tamas]

Also allegedly Putin's speech got repeated by state TV four times, likely because they were initially told it'd be longer, which'd mean he chickened out of something at the last moment.

End time for Putin. Won't be in power by August, calling it now.

[Josquius]

Also allegedly Putin's speech got repeated by state TV four times, likely because they were initially told it'd be longer, which'd mean he chickened out of something at the last moment.

End time for Putin. Won't be in power by August, calling it now.

August sounds way too optimistic. Putin going so suddenly means chaos. I don't think anyone wants that whilst they're still fighting Ukraine.
They have a presidential election due next year. I'd say Putin announces he won't be running again and is off to enjoy his retirement.
Not entirely willingly.

[Sheilbh]

It's probably just wishful thinking but I think Putin is close to tbe end. I am getting Ceausescu vibes.

I think you're right - I'm not sure who comes next or what happens. But I think the very act of Prigozhin's mutiny means an alternative has been imagined - and I think that's important. Also what has been said cannot be unsaid - Prigozhin said the basis of the war was fabricated, that it was being executed incompetently meaning soldiers were dying in a "meat grinder" (his phrase) while bosses in Moscow were living off the gains they embezzled from the defence budget, and that the cost in lives is probably 3-4 times what the Kremlin says. That is all true and it's all out there from the mouth of a man delivering the war for Putin.

I suspect in elite circles they'll look at Putin - who is always a balancer between interests - as having failed in balancing Prigozhin v the MoD/military establishment. He let his own creature get out of hand. I think everyone will have seen the weakness and failure. I suspect, also, that many will have seen the fairly supportive receptions Prigozhin and Wagner got in Rostov and the lack of visible opposition (though also lack of allies joining in). Also, Putin's pitch and legitimacy was that he ended the chaos of the 90s and brought stability to Russia - that's arguably been diminishing since the invasion (with the car bombs and assasinations etc), but now it's surely a joke.

I don't know where it leads.

But here are two other striking things (which are in tension) and more about Putin than the probability of him falling - when things looked bad, Putin negotiated and cut a deal; and will he not look at the last weekend and wonder if he can allow so much of Russia's forces to be deployed against Ukraine. The tension I think is that negotiations would be a sign of further weakness and he's already shown his vulnerability, so does he double down - on the other hand that drains his material support and defence at home and potentially leaves him vulnerable. I'm not sure how that's resolved - but from this deal to his extraordinary measures around covid my guess is that Putin prioritises his own survival and if he starts to feel the war is putting that at risk, then shocks may happen.

I also wonder how the Russian army look at it - he's weak and is a route to restoring their reputation to blame the war (and their failure) on him. Can he afford to, for example, get rid of, say, Gerasimov? If there are genuine command issues, can he act against them?

Also I'm still struck by the fact that he reached for the 1917 comparison. I know that he view Bolshevism and Lenin as a disaster, not least for creating Ukraine. But 1917 is such a strange comparison for him to make. Did he mean Kornilov's march which flung St Petersburg into panic and fanned the revolution, or troops refusing to destroy the Bolsheviks on Kerensky's orders and, in turn, prompting the Bolsheviks to strike - either way it seems like such an odd reference if you're sat in the Kremlin?

Also allegedly Putin's speech got repeated by state TV four times, likely because they were initially told it'd be longer, which'd mean he chickened out of something at the last moment.

Well Peskov said Putin's remarks would "without exaggeration, determine the fate of Russia. Which seems a little over-egged.

[Jacob]

So after the non-event press event by Putin (which was claimed to "change the country's fate", lol)  Putin was holding a security conference. Is it just me or he has aged a lot since last week?

https://twitter.com/i/status/1673421897176842241

Shoigu is still at the table it seems.

[Barrister]

Also allegedly Putin's speech got repeated by state TV four times, likely because they were initially told it'd be longer, which'd mean he chickened out of something at the last moment.

End time for Putin. Won't be in power by August, calling it now.

August sounds way too optimistic. Putin going so suddenly means chaos. I don't think anyone wants that whilst they're still fighting Ukraine.
They have a presidential election due next year. I'd say Putin announces he won't be running again and is off to enjoy his retirement.
Not entirely willingly.

Whatever happens, it won't end by Putin retiring.

By his own choice he has no successors groomed.  He can't afford anyone else to have a power base independent of him.  If he retires then someone else gets the power - which means Putin's own life is now at risk. 

[Josquius]

Also allegedly Putin's speech got repeated by state TV four times, likely because they were initially told it'd be longer, which'd mean he chickened out of something at the last moment.

End time for Putin. Won't be in power by August, calling it now.

August sounds way too optimistic. Putin going so suddenly means chaos. I don't think anyone wants that whilst they're still fighting Ukraine.
They have a presidential election due next year. I'd say Putin announces he won't be running again and is off to enjoy his retirement.
Not entirely willingly.

Whatever happens, it won't end by Putin retiring.

By his own choice he has no successors groomed.  He can't afford anyone else to have a power base independent of him.  If he retires then someone else gets the power - which means Putin's own life is now at risk. 

Maybe that's the agreement with Prigozen?
Medvenev?
I don't think Putin is so completely lacking allies as much as things are shaken.

[Jacob]

Whatever happens, it won't end by Putin retiring.

By his own choice he has no successors groomed.  He can't afford anyone else to have a power base independent of him.  If he retires then someone else gets the power - which means Putin's own life is now at risk. 

Yeah I tend to agree...

If Putin retires with no power, then there's no risk in eliminating him. Conversely, for whoever holds the power after Putin there may be challengers to that power - and those challengers may find a powerless Putin a useful tool (say as a symbolic figurehead or voice of criticism). Therefore it may be prudent to remove Putin so potential rivals can't use him.

On the other hand, if Putin retires with enough power to protect himself then his successor does not have the kind of supreme power that Russia seems to favour as its ideal government. As such it would seem logical for the successor to eliminate that power. And of course, Putin with power to protect himself is an even more dangerous potential locus for opposition than a Putin without power.

So yeah, I find it hard to see Putin retiring except in a possible "power behind the throne, retired-emperor guiding the current emperor" position - but I don't think Russia has traditions for that kind of thing working (nor is the Russian context similar to those context where retired-emperor-behind-the-throne rulers emerged).

[Josquius]

There's also the rumours of Putin being sick to consider....
Could well be it is one of those power behind the throne situations with the understanding he doesn't have long left to live anyway.

[HVC]

Could he retire to a hospitable dictatorship? I guess China would be the only option, but Xi doesn't seem like he'd make a good host.

[Barrister]

Could he retire to a hospitable dictatorship? I guess China would be the only option, but Xi doesn't seem like he'd make a good host.

Saudi Arabia is the only country I can think of, but I don't think that would happen either.

And even then - what is to stop a Saudi government 5 years down the road who needs a favour from the West from turning in Putin?

[HVC]

That's why I was thinking China, they'd be less likely to offer him up, if only as a way to show strength against the west. I just don't think Putin would have fun there.

[Sheilbh]

And even then - what is to stop a Saudi government 5 years down the road who needs a favour from the West from turning in Putin?

Or a favour from Russia's next leader.