Thorning-Schmidt for EU?

[Liep]

It's really far too early to say, but I have currently got my money on Helle Thorning-Schmidt to be the next president of the European Commission when the job becomes vacant this autumn.

She's currently the prime minister of Denmark but her political sell-by-date is long past making her about ripe to be chosen for the top Brussels job this summer.
She's just popped her head above the parapet to suggest Denmark should join the euro, political suicide at home but a good wheeze if you are positioning yourself to run for the commission.
I think she'll get the job despite some of the strange ideas currently doing the rounds in Brussels about how the next chief of the EU's executive will be chosen.
The European Parliament is currently peddling the idea that euro-elections in May will choose a commission president to become "a kind of prime minister of the daily life of the EU".

<snip>

Ms Thorning-Schmidt is a Social Democrat and if the centre-left is the biggest group of MEPs, I predict her name could well go forward.
She is a woman (a big deal here in PC euroland), she used to be an MEP and knows the Brussels circuit well. If her name goes forward can anyone really imagine MEPs voting her down, or Mr Schulz demanding a No vote to topple her from the job?
Here's the clincher: can anyone imagine gender-quota loving MEPs voting down the first ever female president of the commission to impose a male spitzenkandidat? Never.

This echoes Fogh's ascension/descension to NATO secretary general of about 5 years ago, her being PM and being basically unelectable because of domestic politics. Plus, a woman as head commisioner would include the entitled Juncker's reaction to it which I'm sure will be fun.

[Zanza]

I thought the social democrats in the EP had Martin Schulz as their candidate?

[Norgy]

Great, another Gucci social democrat. 

[Duque de Bragança]

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/cameron-droht-merkel-wegen-juncker-lucke-will-zu-tories-a-972685.html

Cameron threatens to quit the EU if Juncker is elected! Simply by advancing the referendum scheduled before the end of 2017...  So says Der Spiegel.

[Sheilbh]

Possibly true. The Reuters version said he warned Merkel about it. I suspect what he said was if they go for Juncker the Tories will go into meltdown and the only way he'll be able to placate them is moving the referendum forward. Which means it'd be without any attempt at renegotiation, so probably harder to win.

I do think Juncker is a dreadful, dreadful candidate. If Lagarde or Lamy or possibly Thorning-Schmidt are available I think you'd be mad to go for Juncker (or for that matter Schulz or Verhofstadt).

Edit: And a lot depends on the meaning of 'warned' there.

[Admiral Yi]

What's the beef with Junker?

Isn't he the clever fellow who first said, "We in the EU know what has to be done, we just don't know how to get re-elected after doing it."

[Sheilbh]

He's particularly hated by Eurosceptics in Britain, he famously said of Lisbon that 'Britain is different. Of course there will be transfers of sovereignty. But would I be intelligent to draw the attention of public opinion to this fact?' He's also - as are all of the mainstream spitzenkandidaten - very federalist. He'd be a difficult candidate for Tony Blair to have supported, for a Tory he's the worst nightmare. They'd probably prefer it if the EU invited Delors to take the reins again.

More generally I think the issue with him is whether we're correctly diagnosing the problem if the solution is Juncker? People are increasingly disenchanted with the EU and trust and belief in it is declining everywhere. I'm not sure a man who was in office for 20 years and has talked openly about how he prefers secret talks on some subjects is going to help with that.

I think Timothy Garton-Ash is right that 'a disastrous "the same only more so" response from Europe's leaders would be signalled by taking Juncker – Spitzenkandidat of the largest party grouping in the new European parliament, the centre-right European People's party – and making him president of the European commission. The canny Luxembourgeois was the longest-serving head of an EU national government, and the chair of the Eurogroup through the worst of the eurozone crisis. Although he has considerable skills as a politician and deal-maker, he personifies everything protest voters from left to right distrust about remote European elites. He is, so to speak, the Louis XVI of the EU.'

I'd add that I think the European Council should be very strongly resistant to the power-grab that the whole spitzenkandidaten thing represents. If it had worked and there had been a genuine European campaign then, fine. But actually 500 000 people watched the 14 debates the main candidates had, out of an electorate bigger than the US's. I imagine most of those were in greater Brussels. In Germany as Gideon Rachman pointed out only 7% of people know who Juncker is (only 17% know Schulz) and Germany takes European politics seriously. So this didn't work. The most baffling possible interpretation of the European vote would be as a democratic groundswell for Juncker.

Also there are talks about some very impressive candidates being available and interested. I think it'd be a shame if, at a very important time, the European Council overlooked Lagarde and Lamy especially (and I imagine the French would be very keen on getting the Commission Presidency right now).

Edit: Incidentally Merkel seemed very cool on Juncker a few days ago and this does give her a very good excuse to dump him while keeping clean hands.

Edit: And I think this is the best pro-Juncker case I've read I think the problem is I see as much potential for the negative scenario (' a weak, politicized commission in thrall to the parliament, enjoying only lukewarm support from national leaders, would strengthen the hand of Brussels insiders and risk fueling voter alienation from the EU') from Juncker as anyone else:
http://blogs.wsj.com/simonnixon/2014/05/27/europes-now-or-never-moment/

[CountDeMoney]

I'd vote for Messer-schmitt.

[Zanza]

When did "spitzenkandidat" become an English word? I read that in an article on WSJ too.

[Zanza]

Christine Lagarde would be an excellent choice.

[Viking]

I'd vote for Messer-schmitt.

Morten Messerschmidt is from the euroskeptic Danish Peoples Party. Putting him in charge would be the equivalent of making Rand Paul president.

[celedhring]

Yep, in the wake of strong anti-EU vote nothing will make it more popular than to the states superseding the parliament and appointing a president by shady compromise.

[Eddie Teach]

I'd vote for Messer-schmitt.

My vote goes to John Jacob Jingleheimer-Schmidt.

[Iormlund]

Christine Lagarde would be an excellent choice.

Lagarde? I don't know about her status at the core countries, but as head of the FMI she's hated throughout Club Med.

[Agelastus]

Yep, in the wake of strong anti-EU vote nothing will make it more popular than to the states superseding the parliament and appointing a president by shady compromise.

Almost as much as a power-grab by a minority of the European parliament of a traditional prerogative of the member states will increase the popularity of the EU.