News from Iran? Good? Bad? Who knows?

[Ed Anger]

I'm enjoying the footage of the crackdown. Kill 'em all.

[KRonn]

Uncle Napoleon strikes again.  Apparently the Iranians are saying that the British are behind this and have given a serious dressing-down to our Ambassador.  Just like the Shah was convinced that the British were behind the Islamic Revolution.

I remember seeing an interview with a former Ambassador to Tehran who said that that posting was unique because it's the only place in the world where the government - and many people - firmly believe that the UK's actually running everything, so he got treated as if he were representing somewhere significantly more powerful

I think one Brit said he wished the UK were as powerful as Iran seems to think.   

[jimmy olsen]

Is the situation really that shaky for the regime? Somehow, I doubt it.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2010-02-09/iran-on-the-brink/?cid=hp:mainpromo1

Iran on the Brink

by Reza Aslan
It began last summer as a protest over a disputed presidential election. It blossomed last fall into an awe-inspiring revolt against the very nature of the regime. Now, on the eve of the 31st anniversary of the Islamic Republic, as Iran braces for what could be the largest and most violent demonstrations since the election that returned Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to power, the country may be on the brink of civil war.

Thursday, February 11—or 22 Bahman in the Persian calendar—is the most important national holiday in Iran, a day in which the regime celebrates the 1979 revolution that toppled the dictatorship of the country's Western-backed shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. Every year on this date, Iran's religious and political leaders try to reignite the revolutionary fervor that gave birth to the Islamic Republic. Speeches tout the revolution's accomplishments. Military parades show off the country's newest weapons. The airwaves are filled with news and mini-documentaries about the corruption and human-rights abuses of the shah and the sacrifices made by the revolution's leaders to force him from power.

It will be the first time that pro- and anti-government demonstrations will be going head-to-head since last summer. With neither side backing down, there is every reason to expect a violent clash.

This year, some of the revolutionary leaders whose sacrifices helped topple the shah three decades ago have promised to hijack the festivities to challenge, if not bring down, the Islamic Republic they helped to create. For more than a month the so-called Green Movement—an ever-widening coalition of young people, liberal political and religious leaders, merchants fed up with the state of the economy, and conservative politicians frightened by the expanding role of the Revolutionary Guards in Iranian politics—has vowed to use the anniversary to mount its most forceful challenge yet to the regime. Unlike previous demonstrations, which brought hundreds of thousands of people to the streets all over the country, Thursday's protests are being planned and organized by the presumed leaders of the Green Movement. Both Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, Ahmadinejad's two main challengers in last June's presidential election, have posted defiant messages on their Web sites urging supporters to come out en masse on Thursday, something neither man has done before.

The most remarkable aspect of the current uprising in Iran is its lack of coordination from above. As many observers have noted, this is essentially a "leaderless revolution," one organized by Twitter and Facebook rather than by any individual or group. In fact, some of the largest protests to date have occurred after Mousavi and Karroubi asked supporters not to demonstrate.

Yet after a recent spate of executions and random arrests aimed at silencing the leaders of the Green Movement, not to mention scattered and confused reports indicating a softening of their position toward the state, Mousavi and Karroubi have gone on the offensive. In a fiery statement posted on his Web site, Kaleme.org, Mousavi declared that the revolution that launched the Islamic Republic had utterly failed to achieve its goals. (He should know; he was one of the revolution's leaders.) Mousavi then explicitly compared the current regime to the reviled dictatorship of the shah—this at a time in which the toppling of that dictatorship is supposed to be celebrated.

"Stifling the media, filling the prisons, and brutally killing people who peacefully demand their rights in the streets indicate the roots of tyranny and dictatorship remain from the monarchist era," Mousavi wrote.

The government has responded in kind, promising to unleash the full force of the country's security forces and show no mercy to anyone who dares to use the holiday to protest against the regime. Iran's judiciary has announced that it will execute nine more protesters, an obvious attempt to frighten demonstrators into abandoning their plans for Thursday. (To date, between 30 and 70 protesters have been killed, and nearly 100 have been sentenced to jail terms of up to 15 years; another 200 protesters remain in detention without charge.) At the same time, the regime has promised to organize its own "counterdemonstrations," busing in supporters from distant rural villages to take on the protesters. It will be the first time that pro- and anti-government demonstrations will be going head-to-head since last summer. With neither side backing down, there is every reason to expect a violent clash. Whether that could augur a civil war in the country remains to be seen.

Meanwhile, Ahmadinejad is trying everything in his power to change the subject. As Michael Adler reports in The Daily Beast, the president announced on Sunday that Iran will begin enriching uranium from between 3.5 percent and 5 percent to 20 percent, a move that experts believe would put the country in a position to reach the 90 percent enrichment level required to weaponize its nuclear program. Ahmadinejad followed up this statement with a promise to build 10 new enrichment plants in the next year.

These announcements are a joke; they cannot be taken seriously. Not only has Iran thus far barely managed to enrich uranium to 5 percent, it can hardly keep its one enrichment plant in Natanz—which took many years to build—up and running full time. The idea that Iran could build 10 more plants in a year while also figuring out how to enrich uranium to 20 percent is laughable. Ahmadinejad's announcement is nothing more than a feeble attempt at nuclear brinksmanship, as the French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner acknowledged when he called it "blackmail." Iran's hope is to return to the negotiations begun in Vienna last October over its nuclear stockpile on more favorable terms.

More than anything else, these announcements were intended for domestic consumption. With what promises to be a tumultuous and violent national celebration on the horizon, Ahmadinejad is desperate to rally the country behind him using the one issue on which all Iranians, regardless of their politics or piety, agree. Ahmedinejad hopes to elicit a belligerent response from the West, allowing him to arouse the people's national pride. Which, by the way, may explain Iran's surprising move last week, when it launched a mouse, two turtles, and some worms into orbit as a prelude to a promised manned space mission.

As Iran approaches what could be the defining moment in an uprising that few thought would last this long or become this strong, perhaps Iran's leaders should keep their gaze focused on the earth. It's shifting beneath them.

Reza Aslan is author of the international bestseller No god but God and How to Win a Cosmic War (published in paperback as Beyond Fundamentalism: Confronting Religious Extremism in a Globalized World).

[Tamas]

So what are the hints on tomorrow's big announcement by Iran? I read Ahmanijajihad told he would tell something bombastic.

[Pedrito]

I related news, a group if basiji protesters attacked Italy's and other nations' embassies in Teheran:

Italian embassy in Iran attacked
But pro-government protestors held back by police
09 February, 19:07
 
(ANSA) - Rome, February 9 - Around a hundred members of an Iranian pro-government volunteer militia attempted to attack the Italian embassy in Tehran on Tuesday but were held back by police, Italian Foreign Minister Franco Frattini told parliament.

Frattini said activists of the Basiji had organised a ''hostile'' demonstration outside the diplomatic mission and then tried to force their way inside, shouting ''death to Italy, death to (Italian premier Silvio) Berlusconi''.

Iranian police intervened and stopped them, avoiding any damage to the embassy, which remained open, Frattini said.

Similar demonstrations were organised outside the French, German and Dutch embassies, ANSA's correspondent from Tehran reported.

Frattini made his remarks while addressing a joint session of the Senate and House foreign affairs committee on the situation in Iran.

During his briefing, the foreign minister said that while Italy would prefer a diplomatic solution to Iran's nuclear program, it realised that tougher sanctions on Tehran would be necessary of no other solution was found.

He said the government would not send any representatives to the official February 11 celebrations in Tehran marking the 31st anniversary of the Islamic revolution. Italy is concerned over possible ''acts of violence and repression'' against the Iranian opposition if it attempts to demonstrate on Thursday, he said.

''We will not tolerate scenes of innocent civilians beaten by police because they want to freely express their beliefs,'' the minister said. European Affairs Minister Andrea Ronchi said the government would not be intimidated and would continue to support the Iranian opposition.

''The assault against the Italian embassy is a serious and unacceptable action,'' he said.

''Italy will not waver from its policy of firmness and will continue to back Iranian citizens who, although risking their lives, hold demonstrations to demand their right to freedom, democracy and respect of human rights,'' he said, calling for a prompt response from the European Union .

The Basiji are a paramilitary volunteer militia made up mostly of young people and while subordinate to the Iranian Revolutionary Guards are totally loyal to Iran's supreme leader, the Ayatollah Ali Hoseyni Khamenei.

Observers believe Tuesday's demonstration may have been in response to Berlusconi's remarks in Israel last week that Iran ''is a state which is led by someone (President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad) who recalls evil figures from the past''.

During his visit, the Italian premier also voiced the hope that the international community would approve ''strong sanctions'' capable of dissuading the Iranian leadership from developing nuclear weapons.

Italy, he added, has already begun to reduce its economic ties with Iran and the national fuels group ENI would cease collaborating with Iran on the development of an important oil field once an existing contract had been respected. Tehran responded by accusing Berlusconi of interfering in Iran's domestic affairs and pandering to Israel.

ITALIAN AMBASSADOR TO TEHRAN SUMMONED TO FOREIGN MINISTRY.

Italy's ambassador in Tehran, Alberto Bradanini, was summoned to the Iranian foreign ministry on Sunday to receive a formal protest over Berlusconi's remarks.

Informed local sources who demanded anonymity told the ANSA correspondent in Tehran that Iranian officials were particularly irked by Berlusconi's call to support the Iranian opposition.

Flanking Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the end of his visit to Israel last Tuesday, Berlusconi said ''It is our duty to sustain and help the opposition in Iran''.

Referring to Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the premier said he no longer enjoyed the support he claimed after last year's rigged elections which sparked bloody protests. ''The opposition to him is strong,'' Berlusconi said.

L.

[KRonn]

Things have been heating up in Iran even more, not less, even after brutal crackdowns by the government's thugs. The anniversary could be a very "interesting" time indeed.

[KRonn]

Heh... I'm sure that state run, totalitarian controlled email will be a wonderful idea!!   

http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2010/02/10/iran-shuts-gmail-announces-national-e-mail-service/

Iran Shuts Down Gmail, Announces National E-Mail Service

Iran's telecommunications agency announced Wednesday that it has permanently suspended Google's e-mail services and that a national e-mail service for Iranians will be rolled out soon.

It is not clear what effect the order has had on gmail in Iran. Google has not yet commented about the announcement. Google on Tuesday unveiled a new service called "Buzz," a social networking tool built into its gmail service.

The announced suspension of gmail comes as Iranian authorities have deployed in force across Tehran to conduct last-minute security sweeps and warn residents to refrain from joining antigovernment protests planned for Thursday -- the 31st anniversary of the Islamic Revolution.

Police have confiscated satellite dishes from residential rooftops, according to opposition Web sites. Some pedestrians have been quoted saying that their mobile phones were searched and, in some cases, taken by police patrolling areas of the capital where protests have erupted in the past. Iranians have also reported widespread service disruptions of text messaging services, though mobile phones appeared to be operating normally Wednesday.

Iranian authorities tasked with upholding Islamic values have also been scouring the streets, harassing people wearing green, the trademark color of the opposition, according to witness accounts posted on opposition Web sites.

The government typically orchestrates large, carnival-like rallies and demonstrations to mark the Feb. 11 anniversary of the Islamic Republic. For this year's events, opposition leaders have called for protesters to demonstrate against the regime. That has set the stage for clashes between authorities and demonstrators, who have taken to the streets repeatedly to protest the outcome of presidential elections in June.

Government officials, meanwhile, ratcheted up threats against any protests, vowing to confront demonstrators on the streets and calling for government supporters to turn out in large numbers. Iranian officials have said the protesters are agents of foreign powers.

The Wall Street Journal contributed to this report.

[CountDeMoney]

Things have been heating up in Iran even more, not less, even after brutal crackdowns by the government's thugs. The anniversary could be a very "interesting" time indeed.

I'm all excited and shit.

[jimmy olsen]

I'm a bit surprised that Iran eeks out North Korea as least favorite. The ranks of Ed Anger are legion.

[Viking]

This means war..

Iran Shuts Down Gmail, Announces National E-Mail Service

But then again I wasn't really a Khamenei fan before this.


Edit: I am not the King of Rome

[Martinus]

Things have been heating up in Iran even more, not less, even after brutal crackdowns by the government's thugs. The anniversary could be a very "interesting" time indeed.

I'm all excited and shit.

I must say I never got on the "OMG IRAN IZ TEH MODERNIZING1111" bandwagon.

[Ed Anger]

I'm a bit surprised that Iran eeks out North Korea as least favorite. The ranks of Ed Anger are legion.

If my ranks were legion, Britain and Germany would be at the bottom of the list. And India for those fucking call centers.

[Warspite]

We exist only for your ruin, Ed Anger.

[Ed Anger]

We exist only for your ruin, Ed Anger.

And to be surly and give substandard service when I'm in London.

[Razgovory]

I'm surprised that anyone has a favorable opinion of North Korea.