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WI Red Army competence in 1941?

Started by Queequeg, June 23, 2013, 01:42:27 PM

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Queequeg

This basically stipulates that the Soviet Union in 1941 was a pretty different place in this hypothetical than it was in reality.

1) No officer purge.
2) Voroshilov is sacked around 1936, with Tukhachevsky presiding over the theoretical development of Deep Operations, the mechanization of the Red Army and the development of relatively sophisticated combined arms tactics. 
3) People's Defense Commissar Tukhachevsky similarly re-instance Tsarist-era traditions of discipline and the development of a relatively competent, de-politicized officer corps.
4) By 1938 the most repressive ethnic, agricultural and religious policies are rolled back, and the defense of the homeland is given a greater status in state propaganda than bullshit Communist lies and dreams.  Similarly, the initial reaction of "Oh good, Germans, we hated the Soviets" is somewhat muted.
5) Molotov-Ribbentrop still happens.  The border is defended in June 1941, intelligence on an eminent German attack is believed, and rather than an extremely hasty retreat and complete collapse of the prewar Red Army, munitions and supplies are given to local anti-German inhabitants and the best pasture land is burned. 

How does WW2 change?
Quote from: PDH on April 25, 2009, 05:58:55 PM
"Dysthymia?  Did they get some student from the University of Chicago with a hard-on for ancient Bactrian cities to name this?  I feel cheated."

The Brain

Quote from: Queequeg on June 23, 2013, 01:42:27 PM
This basically stipulates that the Soviet Union in 1941 was a pretty different place in this hypothetical than it was in reality.

1) No officer purge.
2) Voroshilov is sacked around 1936, with Tukhachevsky presiding over the theoretical development of Deep Operations, the mechanization of the Red Army and the development of relatively sophisticated combined arms tactics. 
3) People's Defense Commissar Tukhachevsky similarly re-instance Tsarist-era traditions of discipline and the development of a relatively competent, de-politicized officer corps.
4) By 1938 the most repressive ethnic, agricultural and religious policies are rolled back, and the defense of the homeland is given a greater status in state propaganda than bullshit Communist lies and dreams.  Similarly, the initial reaction of "Oh good, Germans, we hated the Soviets" is somewhat muted.
5) Molotov-Ribbentrop still happens.  The border is defended in June 1942, intelligence on an eminent German attack is believed, and rather than an extremely hasty retreat and complete collapse of the prewar Red Army, munitions and supplies are given to local anti-German inhabitants and the best pasture land is burned. 

How does WW2 change?

While the efforts are promising the failure to defend the border until a year after the invasion leads to the quick collapse of the Soviet Union in 1941.
Women want me. Men want to be with me.

Razgovory

Quote from: Queequeg on June 23, 2013, 01:42:27 PM
This basically stipulates that the Soviet Union in 1941 was a pretty different place in this hypothetical than it was in reality.

1) No officer purge.
2) Voroshilov is sacked around 1936, with Tukhachevsky presiding over the theoretical development of Deep Operations, the mechanization of the Red Army and the development of relatively sophisticated combined arms tactics. 
3) People's Defense Commissar Tukhachevsky similarly re-instance Tsarist-era traditions of discipline and the development of a relatively competent, de-politicized officer corps.
4) By 1938 the most repressive ethnic, agricultural and religious policies are rolled back, and the defense of the homeland is given a greater status in state propaganda than bullshit Communist lies and dreams.  Similarly, the initial reaction of "Oh good, Germans, we hated the Soviets" is somewhat muted.
5) Molotov-Ribbentrop still happens.  The border is defended in June 1942, intelligence on an eminent German attack is believed, and rather than an extremely hasty retreat and complete collapse of the prewar Red Army, munitions and supplies are given to local anti-German inhabitants and the best pasture land is burned. 

How does WW2 change?

You could have a good "Red Napoleon" scenario, but it's hard to imagine Stalin sacking Klim (and several other guys who were much worse like Kulik).  Stalin, Voroshilov, Molotov, Beria are all part of the same clique.

If you had a better Red Army, they probably would have done better in the Winter War and Germany may not have attacked them in the first place.   Hell the Soviets might attack Germany!
I've given it serious thought. I must scorn the ways of my family, and seek a Japanese woman to yield me my progeny. He shall live in the lands of the east, and be well tutored in his sacred trust to weave the best traditions of Japan and the Sacred South together, until such time as he (or, indeed his house, which will periodically require infusion of both Southern and Japanese bloodlines of note) can deliver to the South it's independence, either in this world or in space.  -Lettow April of 2011

Raz is right. -MadImmortalMan March of 2017

Razgovory

Also it depends which way the all important giant ants of Brest-Litovsk swing.
I've given it serious thought. I must scorn the ways of my family, and seek a Japanese woman to yield me my progeny. He shall live in the lands of the east, and be well tutored in his sacred trust to weave the best traditions of Japan and the Sacred South together, until such time as he (or, indeed his house, which will periodically require infusion of both Southern and Japanese bloodlines of note) can deliver to the South it's independence, either in this world or in space.  -Lettow April of 2011

Raz is right. -MadImmortalMan March of 2017

Razgovory

You getting ready for Company of Heroes 2, Psellus?
I've given it serious thought. I must scorn the ways of my family, and seek a Japanese woman to yield me my progeny. He shall live in the lands of the east, and be well tutored in his sacred trust to weave the best traditions of Japan and the Sacred South together, until such time as he (or, indeed his house, which will periodically require infusion of both Southern and Japanese bloodlines of note) can deliver to the South it's independence, either in this world or in space.  -Lettow April of 2011

Raz is right. -MadImmortalMan March of 2017

Queequeg

Quote from: Razgovory on June 23, 2013, 01:53:50 PM
You getting ready for Company of Heroes 2, Psellus?
My comp can run it, but not in it's full glory.  Waiting for a new comp and a drop in price.
Quote from: PDH on April 25, 2009, 05:58:55 PM
"Dysthymia?  Did they get some student from the University of Chicago with a hard-on for ancient Bactrian cities to name this?  I feel cheated."

Queequeg

Quote from: Razgovory on June 23, 2013, 01:52:35 PM

If you had a better Red Army, they probably would have done better in the Winter War and Germany may not have attacked them in the first place.   Hell the Soviets might attack Germany!
IDK about that.  Attacking Russia was kind of the core of Nazi ideology.  Even if they'd won the Winter War, I think they would have attacked.  And TBH the Germans had such a huge advantage in quality of officers that the loss of some Soviet land was inevitable. 
Quote from: PDH on April 25, 2009, 05:58:55 PM
"Dysthymia?  Did they get some student from the University of Chicago with a hard-on for ancient Bactrian cities to name this?  I feel cheated."

The Brain

It's a bit interesting. In your scenario the weakening of the resolve of the Russians may lead to collapse.
Women want me. Men want to be with me.

Queequeg

Quote from: The Brain on June 23, 2013, 02:15:43 PM
It's a bit interesting. In your scenario the weakening of the resolve of the Russians may lead to collapse.
:huh:
Quote from: PDH on April 25, 2009, 05:58:55 PM
"Dysthymia?  Did they get some student from the University of Chicago with a hard-on for ancient Bactrian cities to name this?  I feel cheated."

CountDeMoney

Quote from: Queequeg on June 23, 2013, 01:42:27 PM
5) Molotov-Ribbentrop still happens.  The border is defended in June 1941, intelligence on an eminent German attack is believed,

If M-R still happens, how do you address the Red Army's transition period from the pre-M-R defensive positions to the post-Poland partition posture?

The Brain

Quote from: Queequeg on June 23, 2013, 03:30:10 PM
Quote from: The Brain on June 23, 2013, 02:15:43 PM
It's a bit interesting. In your scenario the weakening of the resolve of the Russians may lead to collapse.
:huh:

In your scenario it might come to pass that the Russians fear Hitler more than they fear Stalin.
Women want me. Men want to be with me.

Queequeg

#11
Quote from: CountDeMoney on June 23, 2013, 03:43:34 PM
Quote from: Queequeg on June 23, 2013, 01:42:27 PM
5) Molotov-Ribbentrop still happens.  The border is defended in June 1941, intelligence on an eminent German attack is believed,

If M-R still happens, how do you address the Red Army's transition period from the pre-M-R defensive positions to the post-Poland partition posture?
I think a part of this was a function of the change in military leadership and strategy (ie, towards retardation) that this scenario avoids.  A defensive posture against the greatest army in European history was reasonable. It's also been the strategy for almost every successful Russian war since Peter the Great.


QuoteIn your scenario it might come to pass that the Russians fear Hitler more than they fear Stalin.
Neither Alexander I nor Napoleon were bloodthirsty psychopaths but hundreds of thousands of Russians still gladly gave up their lives to stop Napoleon. I think the collapse of the Russian army in 1917 was more the result of a Bolshevik dolchstoss and greater social collapse.  I think Hitler's only chance at a real victory on the Eastern Front was in being nicer to the local populations than Stalin (which would have been absurdly fucking easy), but the annihilation of the Slavic peoples was close to item #1 on the National Socialist agenda. 
Quote from: PDH on April 25, 2009, 05:58:55 PM
"Dysthymia?  Did they get some student from the University of Chicago with a hard-on for ancient Bactrian cities to name this?  I feel cheated."

The Brain

If there's no downside to your scenario then what's the interest? Especially if Germany attacks anyway. Germany loses a bit quicker than historically. Yay?
Women want me. Men want to be with me.

11B4V

#13
QuoteI think a part of this was a function of the change in military leadership and strategy (ie, towards retardation) that this scenario avoids.  A defensive posture against the greatest army in European history was reasonable.

No it wasnt.

The Soviet general staff in 1940 predicted the main german effort would occur North of the Prypat marshes. When they submitted the plan to Stalin, he sent it back.  He had them draw up defensive plans for the main german effort south of the Prypat Marshes. So, the Soviet general staff had predicted the German actions correctly. This is why the bulk of soviet tank/mech forces were deployed south of the marshes at the start of barbarossa. Also it attributed to AG South's slow progress. It it effect, foiled the initial german plan. The German AG South and Center were to clear the Prypat Marshes abreast. This, combined with the Germans intel failure to predict the soviet mobilzation of reserve armies, the suicidal counter-offensives during the Yelnya Offensives, set the stage for turning part of AG Center towards the south.



Two good studies on the subject

Stumbling Colossus: Covers main the soviet war/defensive planning leading up to Barbarossa
Colossus Reborn: Covers the evolution of the soviet army/air force structure from 1941-1945

But no purges?? I wouldnt even base a discussion on that. You would be better off with just saying Stalin was not in the picture and going from there.
"there's a long tradition of insulting people we disagree with here, and I'll be damned if I listen to your entreaties otherwise."-OVB

"Obviously not a Berkut-commanded armored column.  They're not all brewing."- CdM

"We've reached one of our phase lines after the firefight and it smells bad—meaning it's a little bit suspicious... Could be an amb—".

Queequeg

Quote from: The Brain on June 23, 2013, 04:16:00 PM
If there's no downside to your scenario then what's the interest? Especially if Germany attacks anyway. Germany loses a bit quicker than historically. Yay?
The DDR would probably be all or most of Germany, and it's possible that Soviet troops would get to the Benelux and France. 
Quote from: PDH on April 25, 2009, 05:58:55 PM
"Dysthymia?  Did they get some student from the University of Chicago with a hard-on for ancient Bactrian cities to name this?  I feel cheated."