2024 US Presidential Elections Megathread

[Syt]

Trump on Facebook:



Image source on Shutterstock: https://www.shutterstock.com/image-photo/blooming-white-rhododendron-flowers-caucasus-mountains-581596678

Blooming white rhododendron flowers in the Caucasus mountains in June. Cloudy morning view of the mountain hill in Upper Svanetia, Georgia, Europe.

 

[viper37]

It may be working, the polls that came out today look grim.

Which polls?

[Valmy]

It may be working, the polls that came out today look grim.

Which polls?

The recent New York Times/Siena ones. They seem to be outliers but yikes.

[Grey Fox]

So much outlier(ed?) that NYT had to write a justification on why they are still using it in their model.

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Better beware of outliers cause in this timeline they happen every so often

[Razgovory]

https://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/09/23/hamtramck-mayor-amer-ghalib-endorses-donald-trump-president/75345853007/

The mayor of the city with the highest percentage of immigrants in Michigan and an all-Muslim city council has endorsed Donald Trump for president.

Hamtramck Mayor Amer Ghalib, the first Arab American and first Muslim to lead the city, announced late Sunday afternoon he will support the former president. Ghalib's post on Facebook supporting the Republican presidential nominee was then posted by Trump on his social media site, Truth Social.

Ghalib confirmed Monday morning to the Free Press by text that he endorsed Trump, referring to his statement.

"Trump and I may not agree on everything, but I know he is a man of principles," Ghalib posted. "I believe he is the right choice for this critical time. I'll not regret my decision no matter what the outcome would be, and I'm ready to face the consequences."

Ghalib added: "Now, let the Caravan begin its journey. This is just the starting point."


The endorsement came after Ghalib met with Trump in a private meeting last week in Flint that lasted about 20 minutes, Ghalib told the Free Press earlier.

Trump said in an interview with Breitbart that Ghalib endorsed him because "there were no wars" when he was president. The former president added that he was "very impressed" with Ghalib, who had hosted a town hall last year in Hamtramck with Trump's former national security adviser Michael Flynn. Many Arab Americans in Michigan are upset with President Joe Biden over his policies in Gaza, Lebanon and Yemen. Biden lost to the "Uncommitted" vote in Hamtramck, Dearborn and Dearborn Heights in the February presidential primary.

Ghalib's endorsement appeared to generate positive response from Arab Americans in Hamtramck, where 39% of the residents are of Middle Eastern descent, most of them of Yemeni descent, according to the 2020 census. An additional 29% of the city is Asian American, a majority of them Bangladeshi. Ghalib, an immigrant from Yemen who is Muslim, leads a city that is believed to be roughly half Muslim. Yemeni Americans are the largest ethnic group in the city, followed by Bangladeshi Americans, according to census data. All of the members of the city's 6-member city council are Muslim of either Yemeni or Bangladeshi descent. More than 42% of the city are immigrants, the highest percentage among all municipalities in Michigan.


Trump has been accused of being anti-immigrant, with plans to deport many undocumented immigrants and using inflammatory rhetoric, such as against legal Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio. When he was president, Trump issued what was called a "Muslim travel ban" that Biden rescinded in 2021. But that hasn't stopped some Arab immigrants in Michigan from praising Trump.

"Today is a good day in America: An Arab American mayor endorses Donald Trump," Hassan Aoun, a Republican immigrant of Arab descent from Dearborn, told the Free Press.

Trump spoke to Breitbart News about Ghalib's endorsement:

"I was very impressed with him and he was a very big fan of the Trump administration because he saw no wars — outside of defeating ISIS, but I inherited that — but there were no wars," Trump said. "There was no Oct. 7. There was no Russian attack on Ukraine. He sees that and he told me — he saw a world that was at peace. Now, we have a world that's going to end up in World War 3 and I can stop that. I'm the only one that's going to stop that."


Ghalib's endorsement could turn Hamtramck, which has historically voted for Democrats, including Biden in 2020, into a base of support for Trump. Ghalib invited Trump to his city during their meeting, which Trump told Breitbart he was interested in visiting. Hamtramck Police Chief Jamiel Altaheri told the Free Press he has spoken with Trump campaign officials about logistics and security for a possible Trump rally in Hamtramck.

The endorsement is the latest blow for Democrats trying to win over the Middle Eastern vote in Michigan, which has the highest percentage of Arab Americans among all states. Last week, the Uncommitted movement of Democrats, which started in Dearborn, announced they will not endorse Vice President Kamala Harris. Some Muslim leaders are also upset with Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel, a Democrat who backs Harris, for charging 11 pro-Palestinian protesters. Nessel on Friday accused U.S. Rep. Rashida Tlaib, D-Detroit, in a post on X, of making an antisemitic attack against her, but did not specify what she was referring to.

"Thank you for changing the perception that all Muslim Americans are default ticket to Democratic Party," Khalil Othman, of Dearborn, said in response to Ghalib's endorsement of Trump. Othman became Republican after his concern about LGBTQ+ books in Dearborn public schools, which he saw as sexually explicit. The backlash against the books led to Republicans making gains in heavily-Muslim areas of Dearborn in November 2022.

Also this month, Trump attorney Alina Habba, who's of Iraqi descent, and Vivek Ramaswamy met with Iraqi American Chaldeans on a visit to metro Detroit to rally for Trump, speaking at the largest Chaldean country club in Michigan, Shenandoah in West Bloomfield.

"In Michigan, in particular with the Chaldean community, my community, we can flip this state," Habba said.

Ghalib is an outspoken supporter of Palestinians, Yemen and other causes in the Arab world.

"Hamtramck can not stand neutral during moral conflict," Ghalib said in March during the unveiling of street signs to rename part of a major street as "Palestine Avenue" to express solidarity with Palestinians. "We stand with ceasefire against genocide." Ghalib also supported in May a city resolution to divest from Israel.


"The city will do its best to refrain from buying, investing or contracting with companies that support the Israeli genocide," Ghalib said of the resolution that was passed.

In recent months, Trump has used the word "Palestinian" as a slur when referring to U.S. Sen. Chuck Schumer, D-New York, who is Jewish, accusing him and other Democrats of not supporting Israel.


Ghalib has also drawn attention over the past couple of years for supporting the city's ban on political and cultural flags on city property, including LGBTQ+ flags.

Democrats and some progressive activists have criticized Ghalib and the council for banning the flags, but supporters note that the city of Livonia, which is predominantly white and Christian, passed a similar resolution in 2022. The Livonia City Council moved to ban the flying of LGBTQ+ pride flags and other flags after Mayor Maureen Miller Brosnan raised the pride flag last year at City Hall, which drew criticism from some conservatives.

Ghalib won election in November 2021, defeating Mayor Karen Majewski. Ghalib is the first non-Polish mayor to lead Hamtramck, which used to be a Polish-majority city but is now only 5% Polish, according to census data.

[garbon]

If Ghalib gets the president that he wants then yes he better be prepared to face the consequences of that choice.

[Tamas]

See? Racism and xenophobia is not specific to white Christians. Muslims are also perfectly capable to be afraid of Mexican and Black hordes coming in.

[Sheilbh]

It may be working, the polls that came out today look grim.

Which polls?

The recent New York Times/Siena ones. They seem to be outliers but yikes.

This is from a few days ago but I do find there's a jarring disconnect between mood - which seems very positive - and some polling people. Which I find a little concerning (and 2016 triggering) - for example this from Nate Silver on where polling is v shifts:


I think from what I've read it's still alarmingly close.

[Josquius]

Surely this is explainable by most people being nailed on for who they would vote for if they vote, the issue is more will they vote?
If their candidate is polling better it likely indicates they're dominating the media and vibes are positive.