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#41
Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...
Last post by The Minsky Moment - November 09, 2025, 10:51:47 PMQuote from: Admiral Yi on November 09, 2025, 07:55:06 PMMy recollection of freeriding and Stackleberg leaders is much simpler than all these objections indicate. It's basically freeriding occurs, Stackleberg leader makes up the difference to achieve optimality. Please educate me on my error.
My understanding comes from the economics of competition. If you assume two firms in an oligopoly market, if both set production simultaneously (Cornot), the optimal strategy ends with both producing the same. If one acts first (Stackleberg) but knows the other will respond, the leader can secure a higher quantity. The follower will accept less because the price impact of producing more will result in net less profit. It's an interesting result in the economics of information because it arguably shows that having more information gives a worse result.
The scenario assumes fixed and unchanging supply and demand conditions over time and assumes a strict sequence in selection that can't be changed once made. So it doesn't apply to a dynamic diplomatic situation.
#42
Off the Record / Re: The AI dooooooom thread
Last post by Sheilbh - November 09, 2025, 10:37:30 PMYeah also the decade of cheap money helped.
And looking back I think the policy mix in response to the crash was a catastrophic mistake that accelerated a lot of existing trends including in relation to the tech companies. But I think prioritising stabilising the financial system (not consumer/retail debtors), no real criminal liability at all following the crash because arguably no-one did anything wrong and public squalor as states shirked low cost debt (which instead plowed into anything else that might show a return at some point) was basically a toxic combo. I mean, I backed a lot of it particularly stabilising the system - but then everyone backed it but the nutters.
And looking back I think the policy mix in response to the crash was a catastrophic mistake that accelerated a lot of existing trends including in relation to the tech companies. But I think prioritising stabilising the financial system (not consumer/retail debtors), no real criminal liability at all following the crash because arguably no-one did anything wrong and public squalor as states shirked low cost debt (which instead plowed into anything else that might show a return at some point) was basically a toxic combo. I mean, I backed a lot of it particularly stabilising the system - but then everyone backed it but the nutters.
#43
Off the Record / Re: The Off Topic Topic
Last post by grumbler - November 09, 2025, 10:19:50 PMA major kerfuffle is shaping up in the Big Ten. The Big Ten wants to create a new corporation called "Big Ten Enterprises" that will own all the media rights for all of the schools for 20 years, starting next year. The impetus is that the UC Retirement Fund will pay $2 billion up front for a 10% share of the media revenue. The other 90% will be split between the schools and the Big Ten office itself.
Sixteen of the Eighteen schools want to sign off on that deal, because they need cash now due to having overspent on new stadiums, plus the desire to create a buffer fund to handle the upcoming direct cash payments to athletes.
Michigan and USC refuse to go along, both because they think the deal a bad one, and because they refuse to make a 20-year commitment to an organization that could become obsolete due to the changing nature of college football.
The upshot is that, if UM and USC don't sign on, they will regain their own media rights in 2030, at which point they may well be booted from the conference. For USC, this wouldn't be that much of a culture shock, since they only joined last year. Michigan, though, is a founding member (1896) of the conference - one of only six that have been members from the start.
Money ruins everything.
Sixteen of the Eighteen schools want to sign off on that deal, because they need cash now due to having overspent on new stadiums, plus the desire to create a buffer fund to handle the upcoming direct cash payments to athletes.
Michigan and USC refuse to go along, both because they think the deal a bad one, and because they refuse to make a 20-year commitment to an organization that could become obsolete due to the changing nature of college football.
The upshot is that, if UM and USC don't sign on, they will regain their own media rights in 2030, at which point they may well be booted from the conference. For USC, this wouldn't be that much of a culture shock, since they only joined last year. Michigan, though, is a founding member (1896) of the conference - one of only six that have been members from the start.
Money ruins everything.
#44
Off the Record / Re: The AI dooooooom thread
Last post by Jacob - November 09, 2025, 10:05:07 PMThe competitive advantage of Silicon Valley tech seems largely to be that they've done an end run around regulations and gotten away with it because they built an app for it. That and exploiting monopoly or duopoly positions to increase their share of takes.
#45
Off the Record / Re: Gen X suck
Last post by Jacob - November 09, 2025, 09:50:43 PMQuote from: Iormlund on November 09, 2025, 05:59:29 PMQuote from: Jacob on November 09, 2025, 04:19:24 PMGenerational warfare is just a distraction from the real issue, which is that the oligarchs have been waging class warfare and are winning.
At least in Spain generational wealth disparity is very much an issue. The two main contributing factors being pensions and real estate.
Yeah, but then those people are going to die and their heirs - of a different generation - will then be wealthy.
Alternately, the wealth won't be inherited and instead be hovered up by oligarch controlled interests - going back to my original point.
#46
Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...
Last post by Zoupa - November 09, 2025, 09:29:36 PMlike what's the point of the shutdown if you eventually vote to reopen and have nothing to show for the 40 days of crap.
#47
Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...
Last post by Zoupa - November 09, 2025, 09:27:51 PMlol why are Dems so terrible at politics.
#48
Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...
Last post by Sophie Scholl - November 09, 2025, 09:21:26 PMThey did it. They fucking caved. 
#49
Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...
Last post by Admiral Yi - November 09, 2025, 07:55:06 PMQuote from: The Minsky Moment on November 09, 2025, 07:19:23 PMThe NATO alliance isn't a sequential game though. The Treaty is mutual and agreed to by all parties simultaneously, a process that repeats each enlargement. Military budgets are set and change from year to year and the process of setting those budgets is entirely transparent as it moves through open legislatures. Everyone can see and respond to what everyone else is doing and adjust accordingly.
My recollection of freeriding and Stackleberg leaders is much simpler than all these objections indicate. It's basically freeriding occurs, Stackleberg leader makes up the difference to achieve optimality. Please educate me on my error.
#50
Off the Record / Re: The AI dooooooom thread
Last post by Sheilbh - November 09, 2025, 07:45:02 PMYes.
I'm fully aware I have worked in media so have a particular animus against the platforms for destroying their advertising business only for them now to follow up wth mass theft of their IP and trying to get people onto AI search etc. I think it is a problem that the biggest industry in the last 25 years has been based on destroying the industries that produce good information (plus who can forget the fake number "pivot to video").
And I think their business model is based on a lie. They get treated, broadly, for regulatory purposes like they're just a telco or ISP - which are explicitly prohibited from reading the contents of communications - while their business model is based on analysing the content of those communications for the purposes of selling personalised advertising (now AI targeted and generated).
I'm fully aware I have worked in media so have a particular animus against the platforms for destroying their advertising business only for them now to follow up wth mass theft of their IP and trying to get people onto AI search etc. I think it is a problem that the biggest industry in the last 25 years has been based on destroying the industries that produce good information (plus who can forget the fake number "pivot to video").
And I think their business model is based on a lie. They get treated, broadly, for regulatory purposes like they're just a telco or ISP - which are explicitly prohibited from reading the contents of communications - while their business model is based on analysing the content of those communications for the purposes of selling personalised advertising (now AI targeted and generated).