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#41

Off the Record / Re: Trump's Venezuela Vendetta

Last post by Jacob - Today at 04:21:19 PM

I'd say that I have read about quite a lot of contacts between the US and both the Venezuelan VP but also others in the regime. I wouldn't dismiss that at this stage - I think it's too soon to tell if there's soemthing there or not - any change of position from within the regime will take time politically, need to be managed etc. I suspect an early sign in the next few months might be if the new Venezuelan readers keep the Cuban security detail or not. I think the first sign to moving towards basically falling into "line" with the US would be removing the men with guns around you provided by a regime absolutely hostile to that.

My understanding is that of the 40 killed in Venezuela, 32 were Cuban security for Maduro.

Ah... so you think, potentially, that the VP's statements about "Maduro still being the president" may be about managing the transition adroitly rather than rejecting Turmp's terms?

That could very well be true, but I feel like Trump is going to randomly let the cat out of the bag relatively soon if that's the case.

#42

Off the Record / Re: US - Greenland Crisis Thre...

Last post by OttoVonBismarck - Today at 04:16:52 PM

Also if Trump simply declared Greenland part of America, what would that even entail?

For any sort of commercial activity, he would need U.S. companies and some legal structure for them to operate. He can't run that from Truth Social or from the White House by himself, the bones of that process would be subject to judicial review through numerous lawsuits. I can't imagine any private company, other than one simply stood up by a Trump toady, would sign on to such legal ambiguity. Any private company that participated in the Greenland stuff would very likely lose every contract, every business arrangement etc they have with any country in Europe and probably many elsewhere in the world as well, so I very seriously doubt any of the mining majors get involved.

#43

Off the Record / Re: US - Greenland Crisis Thre...

Last post by Jacob - Today at 04:14:23 PM

Quote attribution is weird.

Oops! 

I fixed the original attribution.

#44

Off the Record / Re: US - Greenland Crisis Thre...

Last post by The Brain - Today at 04:11:12 PM

I think you are wrong.

I hope you are right, and that we never find out.

However, Carl Bildt (former PM of Sweden) does not make me optimistic on this count.

Quote attribution is weird.

#45

Off the Record / Re: US - Greenland Crisis Thre...

Last post by OttoVonBismarck - Today at 04:10:06 PM

So it is a totally separate discussion but Canada is vast, Trump would quickly not have any easy means of resourcing an occupation of Canada. He can do stuff like kidnap Maduro or declare Greenland part of America without Congress, he would need funding that would be beyond what he could simply steal from other parts of the budget to occupy Canada. He wouldn't get the appropriations.

#46

Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...

Last post by Jacob - Today at 04:04:13 PM

I think it more likely they had other criteria for the purchase than virtue signalling.

Virtue signalling is one thing, but if there's a potential armed conflict between European countries and the US, the degree to which you're dependent on US military infrastructure influences you ability to chart an independent course.

#47

Off the Record / Re: US - Greenland Crisis Thre...

Last post by Tonitrus - Today at 04:03:38 PM

To clarify, I think the bolded is wrong.

I won't speak for US public opinion...but for MAGA-types, I don't think much of them.

I see, forum specific. I don't know, Raz has already written off Canada as long as zoupa bares the brunt of the conflict

Tamas' charge was forum-specific. 

#48

Off the Record / Re: US - Greenland Crisis Thre...

Last post by HVC - Today at 04:03:04 PM

To clarify, I think the bolded is wrong.

I won't speak for US public opinion...but for MAGA-types, I don't think much of them.

I see, forum specific. I don't know, Raz has already written off Canada as long as zoupa bares the brunt of the conflict

#49

Off the Record / Re: US - Greenland Crisis Thre...

Last post by Tonitrus - Today at 04:03:04 PM

As for what US-occupation/control of Greenland would be like...I imagine it would be like rural Alaska.  Mostly shitty and ineffectual.

#50

Off the Record / Re: Trump's Venezuela Vendetta

Last post by Tonitrus - Today at 04:01:59 PM

So far, vis-a-vis Venezuela, it is just glorified gunboat diplomacy.