Recent posts

#41

Off the Record / Re: Brexit and the waning days...

Last post by Sheilbh - November 08, 2025, 01:47:25 PM

So the Triple Lock, that Savior Farage is going to kick out together with all them brown people: I get it that it is expensive, but what exactly is being offered here? That state pension (for foreigners: it's an absolute pittance, if you don't have a sizeable private pension to supplement it, I fail to see what it is enough for apart from dreadful subsistence living standards) should be eroded away by inflation? Like, what the hell?

I think this is wrong

When you look at pensions often people compare the UK with countries like France or Germany which is really wrong because these are philosophically entirely different welfare systems. People who study welfare they often divide systems into ones that are more Beveridgean (which is what the UK has in some respects) v Bismarckian. The UK state pension is low compared to Germany or France because it's not trying to do the same thing and is funded differently (which is why occupational pensions are legally mandatory and we have pension assets that are almost 2x GDP while in Germany, for example, pension assets are about 25%).

In Europe the most similar pension systems to the UK (universal, flat rate, unrelated to income with other benefits for the poor) are Denmark, Ireland and the Netherlands. The UK state pension is average. It's a little higher than Denmark and a little lower than Ireland. It's a little lower than the Dutch pension for a single pensioner but a little higher for a married couple (because most of the time British welfare and tax systems basically don't really care if you get married, while Europe tends to be more family-focused).

The triple lock is a very expensive policy. Pensions rise every year by the greater of: wage growth, inflation or 2.5&. So this year they increased by over 4% (wage growth). The economy grew by somewhere between 1-1.5%. It basically works provided that inflation is over 2.5% and that earnings outpace inflation and that economic growth outpace earnings. Otherwise the share of national inome going on pensions will just keep increasing.

To put real numbers on it, the increase this year is about £8 billion. That is more than Reeves' proposed cuts to disability benefit and winter fuel allowance combined (and I think their costs were over a multi-year period, so I think significantly higher). With the current briefing suggesting a 2p rise in income tax, that is necessary because basically a 1p increase in inncome tax would only cover the rise in pensions.

There is a really positive and important side to this which is that when I was growing up pensioner poverty was a huge issue and it's been cut in half (child poverty remains at basically the same level). The spending on benefits for children and working age people unrelated to housing or health have declined from 3% of GDP to 2% of GDP in the las 20 years, while spending on pensions has increased from 3.5% to 5% of GDP. I'd add to that that something like 80% of Reeves' increase in discretionary spending went on the NHS (a lot of it on pay settlements) which is, again, particularly important for older voters. Like France, Britain has seen the real incomes of pensioners de-couple from workers:


And one of my concerns with an ageing population is exactly that we end up with a lot of voters, who turn out and will decide policy who are fundamentally post-economic. They don't worry about house prices because they're the group most likely to be owner-occupiers. They don't worry about growth because they don't work any more. They're largely insulated from the economic cycle by guaranteed pensions and asset ownership.

They are likely to punish governments that do things that might be pro-growth (for example alowing building) in ways that could diminish the value of their assets and from which they'd benefit. There's been studies that show that older voters prioritise short-term consumption (pensions and healthcare) over long-term social investment (childcare and education). Also there's evidence they reward and punish different economic outcomes. Older voters basically do not care about growth or employment rates (they don't punish or reward parties on those issues), but they are highly, highly sensitive to inflation and severely punish any party presiding over inflation.

I am increasingly of the view that Reeves is possibly the worst Chancellor I've ever seen - but that's the context why I find her latest idea being kite-flown by the Treasury of cutting the tax deductible allowance for contributions to pensions particularly mad because it's basically sacrificing a system that is relatively sustainable and well-funded in the long-run to help pay for incurring immediate short-term costs now

#42

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by Tonitrus - November 08, 2025, 12:19:43 PM

Does the US have any plans to end its breach of Article 1 of the NATO treaty?

Hey, don't forget Article 2. 

#43

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by DGuller - November 08, 2025, 12:15:30 PM

I don't know what you're saying dude. How about we just say you win, I'm a terrible piece of shit and everyone's happy.

You don't often make good points, but when you finally do, you hit it right on the nose.

#44

Off the Record / Re: Facebook Follies of Friend...

Last post by Josquius - November 08, 2025, 12:15:10 PM

How many seats are there physically in the room?
But could be a good round about way since just managing a neutral body would be against states rights and all that.

Or I wonder if there's some sort of halfway dabble could be done... Like mandating something to control insane seat shapes. One direction can't be more than three times the size of the other or so.

It's quite sad to see that the dem held states are having to do stupid gerrymandering themselves just to counter the republican states.

#45

Off the Record / Re: Facebook Follies of Friend...

Last post by Tonitrus - November 08, 2025, 12:13:21 PM

Gerrymandering is one thing - it's kind of how the US has been rolling for a while I think. Unless the current attempts are of a new magnitude?

The thing I'm concerned about is systematic voter disenfranchisement, messing with voting machines, and brazen fraud. Will the Trumpists attempt something obvious? Will the US stand for it?

It's a new magnitude in that there had been a (very) slow roll in many states towards having independent commissions draw congressional districts.  So not so good setbacks there.

Honestly, I wonder if a pro-move the Dems could make (if they managed government control again)...would be to overturn Apportionment Act of 1911's 435-member limit on representatives...go crazy and make it 800-something.    It might make gerrymandering large, low-population rural districts that much harder.

#46

Off the Record / Re: The Off Topic Topic

Last post by Josquius - November 08, 2025, 12:02:18 PM

I feel like a real wheeler dealer.
Just got £200 for transferring bank account - I first opened a secondary account with my main bank and set up 3 £2 per month charity direct deposits to qualify.
And it worked.
 

#47

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by Razgovory - November 08, 2025, 11:34:54 AM

I don't know what you're saying dude. How about we just say you win, I'm a terrible piece of shit and everyone's happy.

Okay.

#48

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by Razgovory - November 08, 2025, 11:30:54 AM

How to lose an election.

#49

Off the Record / Re: The Off Topic Topic

Last post by DGuller - November 08, 2025, 10:56:21 AM

Things I didn't know I wanted to see today: WWII training film for bomber crews on how to avoid flak fire.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BGVrWi-_GUI

One thing I never realized until fairly recently is the extent to which computers were already used in the field during WW2.  I knew about Alan Turing's bombes, but I never realized that even back then many types of guns were already firing somewhere because that's where a computer pointed them after doing some calculations.

#50

Off the Record / Re: TV/Movies Megathread

Last post by Crazy_Ivan80 - November 08, 2025, 10:51:11 AM

Sliders taught me that might not work out

True enough (the sliders case crossed my mind as I was making the post)