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#41

Off the Record / Re: Baseball

Last post by HVC - Today at 08:51:55 AM

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DPkrYgcjLRJ

#42

Off the Record / Re: Refractory Gauls, or the F...

Last post by Crazy_Ivan80 - Today at 07:02:27 AM

LFI/Melenchon might be marginally "better" as they don't seem to be funded by the Kremlin (that we know of anyway).

They would be a disaster pretty much on par with the RN on policy, so it's a false choice.

Assuming a theoretical where Melenchon gets the same numbers as the fascists then sure.
But I'm looking at the reality here where Melenchon is just one man whose party has to make coalition with a bunch of other, often considerably saner, left wing parties in order to get anywhere. From what I gather many of these other parties aren't fans of his.
The Judean Peoples Front factor I mentioned is real. The left don't fall in line behind the leader in the way the fascists do.
As bad as Emperor Melenchon would be, it isn't happening. The fascists on the other hand are a realistic threat.
Even if Melenchon were to sneak the presidency, no way would he be getting a majority of MPs aligned with him.

At the last Presidential elections Melenchon won 20% and came third, behind Macron on 29% and Le Pen on 24%.

It's not fully clear who the candidates will be in the 2027 election. All poll have the RN reaching the second stage - there have been a few polls that have Melenchon also getting there. The strongest candidate of the left is still, most likely, Melenchon. So Europe's nightmare, a Melenchon-RN second round is a plausible possibility.

LFI are an integral part of the New Popular Front (so the Judean People's Front effect is not real) and the question of how you'll interact with Melenchon and the LFI is a key question on the left right now. So if the NPF tried to form a government, both the RN and Macron's party have said there would be an immediate vote of no confidence if that included ministries for LFI- but it's impossible to see how NPF could form a government without them.

As I always say - I think all of this is downstream of Macron making what is subtext across the West text. Consolidating all the forces of the "centre", obliterating the traditional parties of centre-right and centre-left - they literally really are all the same. But this also means that if you want change you have to go for revolution.

As much as I don't want to wish harm on anyone, Melenchon really needs to shuffle off. Hopefully he grows a sense of responsibility and sees it is for the best to retire.

Absolutely true the LFI are an important part of the left, but they are not THE left in the way the FN are the far right. The left was made up of myriad parties, many of which don't see eye to eye with the LFI on several issues. In fact this was the key issue Macron pointed to for denying them the opportunity to have a prime minister despite being the largest group after the election.

The candidate the left put forward was not Melenchon but Castets, who from all I've heard is considerably better. On the left but non-tankie. Also makes for quite a nice symmetry  with Bordello ( )on the other side with the whole toxic sexism thing that is so dominant in the world but particularly in France at the moment.

The question here isn't is Melenchon good. He clearly isn't.

But one old guy who believes stupid shit whose far left party is hitting their upper limit in getting 10% of the vote   (the Judean Peoples Front effect is very real) is far less of a concern than a far right party that takes funding from Russia.

Melenchon wasn't even under consideration for a PM from the left. Others were.

The same sentiment that made hitler possible.

Exactly. Oldest trick in the book for the far right. Currently being pushed by Trump as well.
Anyone left of centre= the most batshit tiny minority of militant marxists. Same same. Clearly we need a strong far right government in this world being taken over by the far left.

You don't seem to get it. You're no better than those you accuse.

#43

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by Tamas - Today at 06:43:52 AM

Are the kids alright afterall?

Either they are alright, or  we are the very first generation in the entire human history to be right about the next generation being shit, despite every single generation in human history thinking the one after it was shit.

#44

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by Josquius - Today at 03:12:37 AM

Everyone seen the Portland Frog?

Some of the clips out of Portland seem to have vibes of gen z stuff seen in recent years in Chile and Nepal.... Are the kids alright afterall?

This is absolutely dystopian shit:
https://www.reddit.com/r/CringeTikToks/s/PNokJGs7RN

A bunch of armed and masked men with no convincing identification thst they are police, put a child into an unmarked civilian car.

Like, the fuck?!

Edit: maybe it's an adult not a child but it only makes marginally less terrifying.

Also the Chicago video. I've said before I think that ICE is lawless and that's not an accident or bad apples. It is the policy. I'd add again that I think this is "American" in the broadest sense - masked paramilitary agents of the state pulling people off the streets, acting on dubious legality etc. I can't help but think of this happening in the rest of the America's in the 20th century fight against Communism and the left and Aime Cesaire's line about how the violence of imperial powers returns to the metropole. How the fascist regimes turned violence and mechanisms of repression onto Europeans that had previously been used by Europeans only on non-Europeans, discretely, imperially. I think Orwell made similar points.

Someone earlier made the comparison with stormtroopers - I think people are talking about conditioning the military to fight like "warriors" in American cities. I'm not sure that'll work. My read is that the American military is committed to its constitutional norms, civil government etc and that is deep in their culture (to an extent that I think they're possibly the last standing institution with a sense of "non-partisanship" about them). But if you need a paramilitary force to go out and be the willing agents of coercion - then I think that's what ICE are absolutely being conditioned to do.

With ICE... I've heard they have lower requirements than other federal agencies. Certainly seems likely they'd heavily recruit from FBI rejects  and the like- this will also have a big correlation with those with a hefty chip on their shoulder which....Yes. A victim complex is the cornerstone of fascism/maga.
A quick google shows the UK border force similarly has lower requirements than the police..... so again possible here. Given what it deals with...seems probable it would attract those with certain views too- I remember that Little Britain sequel, set in an airport, had a recurring sketch about this.

Also noteworthy, and again in the UK.... there was a recent case with a Reform councillor found to have a conflict of interest- his day job was handling asylum claims....

I also think that the right had a weird idea of the partisanship of the military. I think this was Hegseth's pitch - that officers might not like him but the rank and file would love having a real man/"warrior" like him as a leader and he'd basically be able to forge that connection over the heads of officers if necessary. In effect, that the military was ready to be MAGA-fied, they just didn't know it yet. I don't think that's true or that it's happened. By contrast I think ICE, in part because of the political pushback against them (which is correct) are absolutely politicised and aligned with what Trump wants.

I've certainly heard in Britain the far right making inroads into the army is a problem. Given the US similarly recruits from those without many opportunities I would fear the same there.
Though I've seen lots of news articles where they chat to people on the street, at protests, etc... where there's always a military veteran saying screw Trump. So who knows. I guess the US heavily recruiting from racial minorities will make a bit of a difference?

#45

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by Razgovory - Today at 03:09:01 AM

Just for some context, the landlords will hold an eviction against you for about 10 years.  10 years where you can't rent from anyone.

#46

Off the Record / Re: Refractory Gauls, or the F...

Last post by Josquius - Today at 02:49:57 AM

LFI/Melenchon might be marginally "better" as they don't seem to be funded by the Kremlin (that we know of anyway).

They would be a disaster pretty much on par with the RN on policy, so it's a false choice.

Assuming a theoretical where Melenchon gets the same numbers as the fascists then sure.
But I'm looking at the reality here where Melenchon is just one man whose party has to make coalition with a bunch of other, often considerably saner, left wing parties in order to get anywhere. From what I gather many of these other parties aren't fans of his.
The Judean Peoples Front factor I mentioned is real. The left don't fall in line behind the leader in the way the fascists do.
As bad as Emperor Melenchon would be, it isn't happening. The fascists on the other hand are a realistic threat.
Even if Melenchon were to sneak the presidency, no way would he be getting a majority of MPs aligned with him.

At the last Presidential elections Melenchon won 20% and came third, behind Macron on 29% and Le Pen on 24%.

It's not fully clear who the candidates will be in the 2027 election. All poll have the RN reaching the second stage - there have been a few polls that have Melenchon also getting there. The strongest candidate of the left is still, most likely, Melenchon. So Europe's nightmare, a Melenchon-RN second round is a plausible possibility.

LFI are an integral part of the New Popular Front (so the Judean People's Front effect is not real) and the question of how you'll interact with Melenchon and the LFI is a key question on the left right now. So if the NPF tried to form a government, both the RN and Macron's party have said there would be an immediate vote of no confidence if that included ministries for LFI- but it's impossible to see how NPF could form a government without them.

As I always say - I think all of this is downstream of Macron making what is subtext across the West text. Consolidating all the forces of the "centre", obliterating the traditional parties of centre-right and centre-left - they literally really are all the same. But this also means that if you want change you have to go for revolution.

As much as I don't want to wish harm on anyone, Melenchon really needs to shuffle off. Hopefully he grows a sense of responsibility and sees it is for the best to retire.

Absolutely true the LFI are an important part of the left, but they are not THE left in the way the FN are the far right. The left was made up of myriad parties, many of which don't see eye to eye with the LFI on several issues. In fact this was the key issue Macron pointed to for denying them the opportunity to have a prime minister despite being the largest group after the election.

The candidate the left put forward was not Melenchon but Castets, who from all I've heard is considerably better. On the left but non-tankie. Also makes for quite a nice symmetry  with Bordello ( )on the other side with the whole toxic sexism thing that is so dominant in the world but particularly in France at the moment.

The question here isn't is Melenchon good. He clearly isn't.

But one old guy who believes stupid shit whose far left party is hitting their upper limit in getting 10% of the vote   (the Judean Peoples Front effect is very real) is far less of a concern than a far right party that takes funding from Russia.

Melenchon wasn't even under consideration for a PM from the left. Others were.

The same sentiment that made hitler possible.

Exactly. Oldest trick in the book for the far right. Currently being pushed by Trump as well.
Anyone left of centre= the most batshit tiny minority of militant marxists. Same same. Clearly we need a strong far right government in this world being taken over by the far left.

#47

Off the Record / Re: Refractory Gauls, or the F...

Last post by Crazy_Ivan80 - Today at 01:44:55 AM

The question here isn't is Melenchon good. He clearly isn't.

But one old guy who believes stupid shit whose far left party is hitting their upper limit in getting 10% of the vote   (the Judean Peoples Front effect is very real) is far less of a concern than a far right party that takes funding from Russia.

Melenchon wasn't even under consideration for a PM from the left. Others were.

The same sentiment that made hitler possible.

#48

Off the Record / Re: TV/Movies Megathread

Last post by celedhring - Today at 01:38:42 AM

Evil Does Not Exist - the follow up to "Drive My Car" from Japanese director Ryosuke Hamaguchi.

It tells the story about a rural village that finds out a Tokyo company plans to build a glamping resort in their town. It's quickly revealed that the promoters just want to make an easy buck using COVID grants and that the resort has many deficiencies - antagonizing the villagers, in particular the hirsute handyman. The company tasks their two representatives to win over the handyman with the promise of a job in the resort.

The movie is one of the most contemplative films I have ever seen. Long sequences of one of the handyman walking through the forest with his little daughter, and one of the most (in)famous scenes from the movie is a 10 minute drive from Tokyo to the village with the two company reps discussing how much they hate their job and their dating life.

The film has a theme of how the forces of capitalism antagonize people against each other. The two representatives from the company are just figureheads hired to put their face on the line in front of the villagers. Even though they sympathize with the villagers' concerns, they have little power, and instead have to do the company's bidding.

The film has a shocking ending (during a search in the forest for his lost daughter, out of nowhere the handyman attacks and maybe kills one of the reps) that leaves many open questions. That said, it felt unearned to me, and that filmmaker let the theme get in front of the characters - which is a valid option when you're doing avantgard-ish stuff I guess. And it's a hard break against what was until then a leisure and contemplative character piece, so it has some structural purpose I guess. But mmmm... it felt cheap to me.

#49

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by DGuller - Today at 12:17:29 AM

OK, that sounds like a different argument than the one you were making previously.

It's the same damn argument I made in the very first post.   For reference:

The issue where tenants with eviction history can't find an apartment is also part of a much bigger problem not tied to homelessness.  It's one of the older AI problems I was always concerned about, where many seemingly independent actors all buy a vendor solution, and in effect become a monopolist even without intending to do so.

At individual level, it makes sense to screen out tenants with a bad "tenant score", whatever the reasons happen to be.  At a collective level, though, people who fall on the wrong side of the model, either for good reasons, or for reasons of being an unlucky residual, get frozen out of the market entirely.  Previously you may find some luck with some landlord, but if all of them now use same or similar solutions to screen out potential nightmare tenants, then these potential nightmare tenants are fucked.

In car insurance, we have insurers of last resort or risk pools, because we understand that even justifiably bad risks often need a car to functional in a US society.  That's why there are various schemes to force insurers to deal with them, even if all the good models as well as common sense tells us they're a loss.  I think it's way past time the same concept was extended to housing, or access to financial services.

Out of curiosity, what would be an example of a bad tenant that was unfairly rated?

The word "fair" is actually very loaded.  Even people in good faith can view it differently, and there are a lot of people right now hostile to AI that are using it in very bad faith.  I will avoid using this word here.

Based on the context, I think you're asking for an example of where an information about a tenant or a tenant score from a model would provide a misleading picture of the tenant's actual risk.  If that is what you're asking, a simple example would be a tenant with $100k in bank account forgetting their rent autopay card has expired, and having a landlord or their management company file an eviction notice first and resolving it later.  Even if you get it resolved, the case is now public record.  It's a clerical error, but frankly an understandable one, and not one that indicates financial unreliability.

#50

Off the Record / Re: What does a TRUMP presiden...

Last post by Admiral Yi - October 08, 2025, 11:21:24 PM

OK, that sounds like a different argument than the one you were making previously.

Out of curiosity, what would be an example of a bad tenant that was unfairly rated?