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#41

Off the Record / Re: The China Thread

Last post by The Minsky Moment - November 19, 2025, 08:27:51 PM

Japan's Lost Decade is the closest analogue but China is quite a bit bigger and not as far advanced in per capita GDP.  We are in uncharted territory.

#42

Off the Record / Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-2...

Last post by Tonitrus - November 19, 2025, 07:58:36 PM

It may have been unique to Digby...that place is pretty remote, especially for the younger/single troops living in the barracks.

#43

Off the Record / Re: The China Thread

Last post by Jacob - November 19, 2025, 07:49:50 PM

So what are likely scenarios for how that plays out?

#44

Off the Record / Re: The AI dooooooom thread

Last post by The Minsky Moment - November 19, 2025, 06:44:55 PM

Well two of the leading AI companies are led by an addled ketamine addict (X) and a pathological liar (Open AI).

The Anthropic guy seems kind of balanced.  On the one hand he keeps warning about the dangers of AI, the threats to economic stability and world peace, and the need for regulations. His way of addressing that in the business is to proceed at breakneck speed in AI development and do deals with any international scumbag with cash (aka the Gulf Sheikhs).

#45

Gaming HQ / Re: News from the lovely world...

Last post by The Minsky Moment - November 19, 2025, 06:36:09 PM

Yeah Roblox seems like a horror show.  To the point where I'd rather my kid just play Fortnite.

#46

Gaming HQ / Re: Europa Universalis V confi...

Last post by The Minsky Moment - November 19, 2025, 06:33:12 PM

I didn't get that deep into the game yet but it seemed like things were balanced OK on release.  Levies were stronger in the first 2 ages and maybe the 3rd but that mapped well on to the historical period when levies were dominant and standing armies non-existent to very rare. I think its perfectly OK if during the earlier period, the standing armies are basically there as royal bodyguards or small groups of specialists to be used in reserve or for sieges and such until you get to the 1600s or so.  Now maybe the balance on release was due in part to some coding mistake but then don't fix the mistake in a way that totally undoes that balance.

#47

Off the Record / Re: The China Thread

Last post by The Minsky Moment - November 19, 2025, 06:27:49 PM

No the PRC economy is horribly unbalanced.  It is a structural problem that goes back decades.  The consumer share of the PRC economy is under 40 percent, which is around the level you see in a country fully mobilized during wartime. Its absurdly low and highly distortionary and why you read story after story about massive capital wastage. Top PRC economists know this but at this point, it's hard to fix.  It could have been rebalanced back in the oughts with annual growth rates still over 10% like clockwork - they could have accepted a few ticks down in investment growth and rebalanced then but they didn't.  The opportunity was lost and now it would require growing annual consumption at extremely high rates and basically throttling investment.  That won't happen which means imbalances will continue to get worse, and there will be more political pressure in their export markets to do something to control the avalanche of goods.

#48

Off the Record / Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-2...

Last post by Sheilbh - November 19, 2025, 05:49:34 PM

Salary and services is not much of a surprise - but the US is particularly strong on that, I believe.

Surprised by the last point though as I've knowna couple of squaddie towns and I very much got the impression they were there (and in force) on the weekends Although I wonder if there's a forces difference too. Like I definitely know navy towns where people who are serving and their families live. But I think it is less common with army and RAF/they're in more remote areas - maybe also just a function of the Royal Navy needing an entire industrial apparatus at their bases? So it's more obviously a very naval town.

#49

Off the Record / Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-2...

Last post by Tonitrus - November 19, 2025, 05:31:38 PM

Also, does the UK generally have enough volunteers to maintain a robust RN/Army/RAF?

We don't have enough to maintain the current forces, so no.

I think the recruitment side could be quite important from a UK perspective.

One of things I had noticed when I was stationed there, was that my middle level enlisted-scum salary was roughly the equivalent to a Major in the UK forces.

Not to mention that on-base support services/creature comforts for troops were much more lacking than our equivalent.  Digby has a really nice gym though.

Another interesting phenomenon was the large amount of folks that "lived" local to the base during the work week, but went "home" (where they kept their family)...even as far as Cornwall or Manchester...on the weekends.

#50

Off the Record / Re: Russo-Ukrainian War 2014-2...

Last post by Sheilbh - November 19, 2025, 05:29:20 PM

Also, does the UK generally have enough volunteers to maintain a robust RN/Army/RAF?

We don't have enough to maintain the current forces, so no.

I think the recruitment side could be quite important from a UK perspective.