If it was an accident, seems odd that it just managed to hit an Israeli military outpost coincidentally. :hmm:
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57548143/israel-fires-warning-shots-into-syrian-territory/
QuoteNovember 11, 2012, 8:58 AM
Israel fires warning shots into Syrian territory
JERUSALEM Israel was drawn into the Syrian civil war for the first time on Sunday, firing warning shots into the neighboring country after a stray mortar shell fired from Syrian territory hit an Israeli military post.
The Israeli military said the mortar fire caused no injuries or damage at the post in the Golan Heights, which Israel captured from Syria in the 1967 Mideast war and then annexed. But in recent weeks, incidents of errant fire from Syria have multiplied, leading Israel to warn that it holds Syria responsible for fire on Israeli-held territory.
"A short while ago, a mortar shell targeted an IDF (Israel Defense Forces) post in the Golan Heights," said army spokeswoman Lt. Col. Avital Leibovich. "We answered with a warning shot toward Syrian areas. We understand this was a mistake and was not meant to target Israel and then that is why we fired a warning shot in retaliation."
The Israeli military also said it has filed a complaint through United Nations forces operating in the area, stating that "fire emanating from Syria into Israel will not be tolerated and shall be responded to with severity."
Israel and Syria are bitter foes who have fought several wars, but their shared border has been mostly quiet since a 1974 cease-fire. Still, Israel worries that Syria's civil war could spill across into the Golan, and repeated errant fire has intensified that concern.
Israel fears that if Syrian President Bashar Assad's regime is toppled, the country could fall into the hands of Islamic extremists or descend into sectarian warfare, destabilizing the region.
Israeli officials do not see Assad trying to intentionally draw Israel into the fighting, but have raised the possibility of his targeting Israel in an act of desperation. They also fear that Syria's stockpile of chemical weapons or other weapons could slip into the hands of Lebanon's militant Hezbollah group — a close Syrian ally — or reach other militants if Assad loses power.
Israeli officials also worry that the frontier region could turn into a lawless area like Egypt's Sinai desert, which Islamic militants now use as a launching ground for strikes against southern Israel.
Speaking to his Cabinet on Sunday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel is "closely monitoring" the border with Syria and is "ready for any development."
© 2012 The Associated Press.
If the shell caused no injuries or damage... then it didn't actually hit the post.
I hope they'll keep their cool. You are not drawn in this way unless you want to get drawn.
At the onset of the recent Balkan Wars, Hungarian villages on the Serbian borders were regularly shelled. Luckily we didn't get involved.
Quote from: Tamas on November 11, 2012, 10:37:15 AM
Luckily we didn't get involved.
Yes, a lot of European countries could say that. Unfortunately.
This makes me think things aren't looking good for Assad. Trying to drag Israel in is normally the sort of last hope of an Arab tyrant.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 11, 2012, 11:54:19 AM
This makes me think things aren't looking good for Assad. Trying to drag Israel in is normally the sort of last hope of an Arab tyrant.
One 82mm mortar round does not a war make.
Quote from: mongers on November 11, 2012, 01:07:35 PM
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 11, 2012, 11:54:19 AM
This makes me think things aren't looking good for Assad. Trying to drag Israel in is normally the sort of last hope of an Arab tyrant.
One 82mm mortar round does not a war make.
Saddam >>>>>> Assad
Quote from: CountDeMoney on November 11, 2012, 11:33:57 AM
Quote from: Tamas on November 11, 2012, 10:37:15 AM
Luckily we didn't get involved.
Yes, a lot of European countries could say that. Unfortunately.
You surely must understand that the European Great Powers not interfering in a war they could end at a whim and where they have no direct national interests, is quite different to Hungary getting involved, who had a weak army, a shaky political system from the recent change from communism, and hundreds of thousands of Hungarians on the Serbian side of the border.
I thought hundreds of thousands of Hungarians across the border would mean you do have a national interest.
Quote from: Tamas on November 11, 2012, 01:13:18 PM
Quote from: CountDeMoney on November 11, 2012, 11:33:57 AM
Quote from: Tamas on November 11, 2012, 10:37:15 AM
Luckily we didn't get involved.
Yes, a lot of European countries could say that. Unfortunately.
You surely must understand that the European Great Powers not interfering in a war they could end at a whim and where they have no direct national interests, is quite different to Hungary getting involved, who had a weak army, a shaky political system from the recent change from communism, and hundreds of thousands of Hungarians on the Serbian side of the border.
I hold your entire continent responsible for its moral cowardice.
Quote from: Razgovory on November 11, 2012, 01:19:29 PM
I thought hundreds of thousands of Hungarians across the border would mean you do have a national interest.
Yes. That was my point. CdM made it sound like Hungary refused to act as a kind of peacekeeper interventioning country. There was no way to do that. It would had been personal.
We intervene when it's personal.
Quote from: Razgovory on November 11, 2012, 01:23:14 PM
We intervene when it's personal.
Except when:
-you are in no shape to fight
-have no real hope to resolve the situation by border change
-do not feel like engaging in mutual ethnic cleansings
Quote from: Razgovory on November 11, 2012, 01:19:29 PM
I thought hundreds of thousands of Hungarians across the border would mean you do have a national interest.
I think they were, which meant Hungary not intervening, otherwise how do you think Milosevic would have reacted ?
Maybe a bit of light ethnic cleansing in Vojvodina before lunch, followed by wholesale expulsions across the border by supper ?
Quote from: Tamas on November 11, 2012, 01:26:32 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on November 11, 2012, 01:23:14 PM
We intervene when it's personal.
Except when:
-you are in no shape to fight
-have no real hope to resolve the situation by border change
-do not feel like engaging in mutual ethnic cleansings
We still intervene in those cases.
Quote from: mongers on November 11, 2012, 01:27:22 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on November 11, 2012, 01:19:29 PM
I thought hundreds of thousands of Hungarians across the border would mean you do have a national interest.
I think they were, which meant Hungary not intervening, otherwise how do you think Milosevic would have reacted ?
Maybe a bit of light ethnic cleansing in Vojvodina before lunch, followed by wholesale expulsions across the border by supper ?
Hard to expel the populace when that area has been overtaken by an armored division.
Quote from: Razgovory on November 11, 2012, 01:29:48 PM
Quote from: mongers on November 11, 2012, 01:27:22 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on November 11, 2012, 01:19:29 PM
I thought hundreds of thousands of Hungarians across the border would mean you do have a national interest.
I think they were, which meant Hungary not intervening, otherwise how do you think Milosevic would have reacted ?
Maybe a bit of light ethnic cleansing in Vojvodina before lunch, followed by wholesale expulsions across the border by supper ?
An army made to appear as an actual army so the Soviets are happy, attacking an army made to hold together Yugoslavia, defending its home turf? Thanks, but no thanks.
Hard to expel the populace when that area has been overtaken by an armored division.
It's not like the Serbs were great fighters, they were beaten by the military superpowers of Slovenia and Croatia.
Quote from: Razgovory on November 11, 2012, 01:29:48 PM
Quote from: mongers on November 11, 2012, 01:27:22 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on November 11, 2012, 01:19:29 PM
I thought hundreds of thousands of Hungarians across the border would mean you do have a national interest.
I think they were, which meant Hungary not intervening, otherwise how do you think Milosevic would have reacted ?
Maybe a bit of light ethnic cleansing in Vojvodina before lunch, followed by wholesale expulsions across the border by supper ?
Hard to expel the populace when that area has been overtaken by an armored division.
Am having a hard time seeing the post-communist remnants of the Hungarian army invading and defeating a significant part of the ex-Yugoslav army.
If you want to place blame for the failure to stop enthnic war in the Former-Yugoslavian republics might I suggest you look at, oh I don't know, maybe Germany, France, Italy, the UK and the EU rather than Hungary on its own.
Quote from: CountDeMoney on November 11, 2012, 01:21:03 PM
I hold your entire continent responsible for its moral cowardice.
Could the Europeans 'great powers' (by which I assume we mean Germany, the UK and France) have ended the war on a whim? Mitterrand blamed everybody else for aggravating the problem, and so was somewhat intractable. Major was lost in space with a policy that amounted to 'why can't we all just get along' and focusing on domestic policy so that he could try and hold off a revitalized Labour opposition. As for Germany, their moral cowardice would preclude taking any action or leading anything.
Quote from: Neil on November 11, 2012, 01:44:37 PM
Could the Europeans 'great powers' (by which I assume we mean Germany, the UK and France) have ended the war on a whim? Mitterrand blamed everybody else for aggravating the problem, and so was somewhat intractable. Major was lost in space with a policy that amounted to 'why can't we all just get along' and focusing on domestic policy so that he could try and hold off a revitalized Labour opposition. As for Germany, their moral cowardice would preclude taking any action or leading anything.
Well there's something in that, though I'm of the opinion that this was the opportunity for the EU as a whole to act, which it singularly failed to do. So I can also see where cdm is coming from.
Quote from: mongers on November 11, 2012, 01:40:24 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on November 11, 2012, 01:29:48 PM
Quote from: mongers on November 11, 2012, 01:27:22 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on November 11, 2012, 01:19:29 PM
I thought hundreds of thousands of Hungarians across the border would mean you do have a national interest.
I think they were, which meant Hungary not intervening, otherwise how do you think Milosevic would have reacted ?
Maybe a bit of light ethnic cleansing in Vojvodina before lunch, followed by wholesale expulsions across the border by supper ?
Hard to expel the populace when that area has been overtaken by an armored division.
Am having a hard time seeing the post-communist remnants of the Hungarian army invading and defeating a significant part of the ex-Yugoslav army.
If you want to place blame for the failure to stop enthnic war in the Former-Yugoslavian republics might I suggest you look at, oh I don't know, maybe Germany, France, Italy, the UK and the EU rather than Hungary on its own.
Oh I blame them all.
Which makes the EU getting the Nobel Peace Prize even more ridiculous.
Quote from: mongers on November 11, 2012, 01:51:43 PM
Quote from: Neil on November 11, 2012, 01:44:37 PM
Could the Europeans 'great powers' (by which I assume we mean Germany, the UK and France) have ended the war on a whim? Mitterrand blamed everybody else for aggravating the problem, and so was somewhat intractable. Major was lost in space with a policy that amounted to 'why can't we all just get along' and focusing on domestic policy so that he could try and hold off a revitalized Labour opposition. As for Germany, their moral cowardice would preclude taking any action or leading anything.
Well there's something in that, though I'm of the opinion that this was the opportunity for the EU as a whole to act, which it singularly failed to do. So I can also see where cdm is coming from.
Given that the EU can't do anything without those three agreeing to it, I don't think that was realistic. Major wasn't entirely convinced that the EU was a legitimate venue to organize the use of force when compared to the UN, and even if Kohl wanted to he could never have managed to deploy German troops in Yugoslavia.