Interesting article: http://www.wilsoncenter.org/index.cfm?fuseaction=wq.essay&essay_id=519403
Summary: Northern Europe's birthrates has been increasing so the "impending demographic disaster" there may not materialise at all, possible shifts in employment patterns (female participation in labour market, pushing retirement back) could neutralize the problems associated with smaller proportion of young people to old people; Middle Eastern birthrates (with a few exceptions) have been declining to European levels so the "Muslim demographic time bomb" may not happen; population growth is highest in Africa, potentially causing shifts in focus of both Islam and Christianity; Russia still on a path of depopulation and high mortality; highest growing single segment of population growth is the middle class; China, India, Pakistan and Bangladesh are all facing a "missing women" problem as there are more boys than girls being born.
:nelson: to the 'OMFG teh moozlums r gonna overrun teh euros coz theyre infertil' folks.
Russia though is very interesting.
Did they do any cross cutting of the birth data to see what portion was due to immigrants?
Quote from: garbon on May 09, 2009, 06:11:39 PMDid they do any cross cutting of the birth data to see what portion was due to immigrants?
The article doesn't mention the data as a whole, but they mention that immigrants birthrates tend to end up the same as native populations after two generations and which proportion of the birth rates are by certain segments (though they don't give all the data). They also mention that a not-insignificant amount of the unpredicted "bump" comes from (presumably native) women having children in their late 30s and 40s.
So I think they did take that into account, yeah.
K, thanks.
I don;t care about powerless populations.
Nice post. Great read. Thanks! :)
You people will never learn.
I don't know about the rest of Europe, but the Swedish economy and subsequently the welfare system is buckling under the load of mass unemployment specifically among wellfare leeching shellshocked imports from inferior cultures.
That a seething mass of arab filth are having lots of babies will do nothing to stave off the inevitable collapse, since your truism that "people are people, regardless of race" is obviously false.
Hiding declining birthrates behind mixing in the arabs under the "citizens" number is fooling no one.
Quote from: Slargos on May 10, 2009, 09:06:38 AM
You people will never learn.
I don't know about the rest of Europe, but the Swedish economy and subsequently the welfare system is buckling under the load of mass unemployment specifically among wellfare leeching shellshocked imports from inferior cultures.
That a seething mass of arab filth are having lots of babies will do nothing to stave off the inevitable collapse, since your truism that "people are people, regardless of race" is obviously false.
Hiding declining birthrates behind mixing in the arabs under the "citizens" number is fooling no one.
Read the actual article and you'll see that is not what they're doing.
Read? He sells kitchens.
Quote from: jimmy olsen on May 10, 2009, 10:13:21 AM
Quote from: Slargos on May 10, 2009, 09:06:38 AM
You people will never learn.
I don't know about the rest of Europe, but the Swedish economy and subsequently the welfare system is buckling under the load of mass unemployment specifically among wellfare leeching shellshocked imports from inferior cultures.
That a seething mass of arab filth are having lots of babies will do nothing to stave off the inevitable collapse, since your truism that "people are people, regardless of race" is obviously false.
Hiding declining birthrates behind mixing in the arabs under the "citizens" number is fooling no one.
Read the actual article and you'll see that is not what they're doing.
You're saying they're actually taking ethnicity into account when counting births? I seriously doubt it.
Quote from: Slargos on May 10, 2009, 10:16:02 AM
You're saying they're actually taking ethnicity into account when counting births? I seriously doubt it.
QuoteThe falling fertility rates in large segments of the Islamic world have been matched by another significant shift: Across northern and western Europe, women have suddenly started having more babies. Germany's minister for the family, Ursula von der Leyen, announced in February that the country had recorded its second straight year of increased births. Sweden's fertility rate jumped eight percent in 2004 and stayed put. Both Britain and France now project that their populations will rise from the current 60 million each to more than 75 million by midcentury. Germany, despite its recent uptick in births, still seems likely to drop to 70 million or less by 2050 and lose its status as Europe's most populous country.
In Britain, the number of births rose in 2007 for the sixth year in a row. Britain's fertility rate has increased from 1.6 to 1.9 in just six years, with a striking contribution from women in their thirties and forties—just the kind of hard-to-predict behavioral change that drives demographers wild. The fertility rate is at its highest level since 1980. The National Health Service has started an emergency recruitment drive to hire more midwives, tempting early retirees from the profession back to work with a bonus of up to $6,000. In Scotland, where births have been increasing by five percent a year, Glasgow's Herald has reported "a mini baby boom."
Immigrant mothers account for part of the fertility increase throughout Europe, but only part. And, significantly, many of the immigrants are arrivals from elsewhere in Europe, especially the eastern European countries admitted to the European Union in recent years. Children born to eastern European immigrants accounted for a third of Scotland's "mini baby boom," for example.
In 2007, France's national statistical authority announced that the country had overtaken Ireland to boast the highest birthrate in Europe. In France, the fertility rate has risen from 1.7 in 1993 to 2.1 in 2007, its highest level since before 1980, despite a steady fall in birthrates among women not born in France. France's National Institute of Demographic Studies reports that the immigrant population is responsible for only five percent of the rise in the birthrate.
The French peril will soon overwhelm Europe with hordes of cheese eating Frenchmen.
Still too many brown pipple in this world.
This sort of thing is why I never bother about demographic scares any more. They all rely on extrapolating some present trend into the future as if nothing will change - invariably the scare turns out to be untrue, as demographic trends seem to shift with amazing rapidity.
Around here there seems to be a bit of a middle class baby boom, as I've been reporting for a while now - $2000 strollers and all (though I suspect that the recession may cut back on the Bugaboo sales ;) ).
Yeah it'd be pretty scary to see brown people replacing white people. :mellow:
Anything that means more French teenagers/20somethings when I am in my 40s is a good thing. :)
Though hopefully the Eastern European birthrate will start to comeback at some point. What about Ukrainian mailorder brides? What about Czech supermodels? :(
Quote from: garbon on May 10, 2009, 01:05:54 PM
Yeah it'd be pretty scary to see brown people replacing white people. :mellow:
Not at all.
The whole world should be like south africa. Then we would all be set free.
No. Wait. Most of us would live in horrible conditions. :pinchL
Quote from: Tyr on May 09, 2009, 06:09:48 PM
:nelson: to the 'OMFG teh moozlums r gonna overrun teh euros coz theyre infertil' folks.
Russia though is very interesting.
Unless I read the story wrong Yuro caucasian are still below replacement rate. Which means that Europe still will have to rely on immigration or population growth of immigrants to prevent bankruptcy of the pension system.
Quote from: Jacob on May 09, 2009, 06:34:59 PM
Quote from: garbon on May 09, 2009, 06:11:39 PMDid they do any cross cutting of the birth data to see what portion was due to immigrants?
The article doesn't mention the data as a whole, but they mention that immigrants birthrates tend to end up the same as native populations after two generations and which proportion of the birth rates are by certain segments (though they don't give all the data). They also mention that a not-insignificant amount of the unpredicted "bump" comes from (presumably native) women having children in their late 30s and 40s.
So I think they did take that into account, yeah.
Reading the article they dance around the issue and try to put a spin on it. Given the impetus of the article if it was taken in to account the relevant numbers would be trumpeted. Instead I suspect it's more of a Will Roger's Oklahoma and California paradox.
Quote from: garbon on May 10, 2009, 01:05:54 PM
Yeah it'd be pretty scary to see brown people replacing white people. :mellow:
I don't care about that at all. Just the loss of a culture or a nation or something. Progressive Euroland replaced by a theocratic tyranny would be bad. Progressive Euroland replaced by a browner progressive Euroland doesn't matter a bit.
Obviously people are not worried about westernized educated "brown" people have babies (like say if the Japanese had a sudden baby boom)...of course they typically do not reproduce at a higher rate than any other westernized educated person. Well...nobody except the Slargos' of the world.
We lose cultures all the time, who cares?
Quote from: garbon on May 10, 2009, 03:49:22 PM
We lose cultures all the time, who cares?
People who are apart of those cultures obviously.
I know you are not stupid you went to Stanford so why do you need me to point out the obvious?
Are you a part of that culture?
Quote from: garbon on May 10, 2009, 03:53:50 PM
Are you apart of that culture?
I feel that I am yes. In any case I care about it alot. My vanity lets me believe that the power of that culture will absorb any immigrants who come there or here regardless of their temporary birthrate lead though.
I didn't realize you were in Northern Europe. :o
Quote from: garbon on May 10, 2009, 03:56:17 PM
I didn't realize you were in Northern Europe. :o
I missed the part I claimed I was. :o
Quote from: Valmy on May 10, 2009, 06:35:04 PM
I missed the part I claimed I was. :o
Jacob's summary was about Northern Europe and you claimed you were part of the culture...and because you didn't specify, I had to assume that you meant Northern Europe.
Quote from: garbon on May 10, 2009, 10:46:01 PM
Jacob's summary was about Northern Europe and you claimed you were part of the culture...and because you didn't specify, I had to assume that you meant Northern Europe.
I said I thought I was part of the culture as they are other Western countries. Then I said I care alot about those cultures (even if you deny that it is the case that we are all part of a common culture). Ergo I think the world would suffer if they vanished so I would rather they didn't.
I am not sure how that meant I was standing on a bit of soil that was located in Northern Europe someplace.
Is it really that hard to comprehend what I am saying? I almost think you are acting dense for some reason just to be an ass.
I think you're being an ass. You're acting as though our cultures aren't constantly changing and evolving. Freaking out over cultural changes is as useful as crying over the fact that the rain erodes the landscape.